'We are still careful in speaking this out' – Primož Roglič in position to strike and win fifth Vuelta a España, say Red Bull, but pre-race crash keeps them realistic

No one knows how to close out the Vuelta a España better than four-time winner Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), except perhaps for Roberto Heras, the man with whom he shares the record for the most red jersey overall titles.

However, after the abandon of Tadej Pogačar on stage 8, Roglič now has the chance to win that elusive fifth, an outcome which he and his team didn't think possible before the start, the Slovenian having been hit by a driver in the build-up to the Spanish Grand Tour.

And while he doesn't have the lead for the moment with 10 stages left to race, his long-term Vuelta rival Enric Mas (Movistar) has that honour; Roglič is only 1:18 down, and with a final week time trial playing into his hands.

But he likely has to impress on all the remaining mountain stages too if he is to win this Vuelta, the next of which comes today to Calar Alto, with an irregular 17km climb that averages 5.6% gradient set to bring the GC stars back into focus.

"I'm happy, huh. I'm happy I'm still here. I hope I stay with already some hard days in the legs, tired, but happy," said Roglič at the start of stage 11 in Cartagena.

"We will see. At the end, I'm not the only one, it's a lot of strong guys, and for the moment, Enric was the best one; he won last time. There's a long way still to go; we just have to do our best and see what happens."

That pre-race crash which almost saw him not to take the start is what's left Roglič as such an unknown quantity at this Vuelta. Yes, he has looked strong so far, but having missed important days of training, will he be able to maintain it for three weeks?

"I still feel it, I still feel my leg when I touch the area," he said, gesturing to the spot where he was struck in training near Livigno.

"I'm happy; I didn't expect to be in the place I am, so we just have to see how I will react to all of these efforts."

'He missed 10 important days, and we still have 10 days to go'

And for his team, while they note how they are in a position where winning this Vuelta is very much possible, they are cautious about being overly bullish given how much the crash could come to affect him as the fatigue wears on.

"The question mark was before the Vuelta, and I think this was from Primož's side and from our side, but we always had the goal to still believe in a good GC result," said Red Bull sports director Sven Vanthourenhout to Cyclingnews on Wednesday.

"So it's not that we didn't expect anything anymore from him. The GC with Primož was still one of the most important goals. Of course, especially with Pogi on the start, we knew it should be difficult to win the Vuelta. Even a podium with the preparation he had before the Vuelta was doubtful, but now we are in a nice second place.

"We are still careful because we always say we know what happened before the Vuelta. He missed 10 important days, and we still have 10 days to go. So we stay careful. We know what's coming. We know that it's still a hard last week that we have to manage.

"In a normal way, without a crash, then we also believe that he can grow even 1% or 2% and that he's a really big contender to win the Vuelta. Yes, it is possible. We are in a spot that we can win the Vuelta, but we are still careful in speaking this out."

Before the remaining time trial of this year's Vuelta, a mostly flat 32km race against the clock to Jerez on stage 18, Roglič will want to get through today's stage and Saturday's brutal climbing test to Sierra de la Pandera (11.8km at 7.5%) still within striking distance of Mas' lead.

Roglič has never lost to Mas in a time trial, so he can be almost certain of gaining time that day, but his recent form in TTs has not been world-beating as it was between 2018 and 2022. Red Bull are certainly eyeing it up as the potential perfect place to hit out for red.

"For us, he's still the much better TT rider than Mas and Gall," said Vanthourenhout. "Now in the second, in the third week, he will also be cooling down on his TT bike; these are not big secrets. That means that he's focused and that he still believes in it."

The Belgian DS again caveated this confidence by saying how Roglič could still come unstuck – him getting gradually better as he did in Vueltas gone by isn't as guaranteed. It's fair to say they won't be leaving any stone unturned in pursuit of red, though.

"After the Vuelta, we want to look back and say, OK, we did what we could, we did all that we had to do, and we took the maximum out of this Vuelta," he said.

"It will be an interesting week, and it is possible that Primož is coming closer. It's also possible that he will lose some time somewhere. We have to see what will happen. But anyway, we are there for him, and we will see what it will bring."

Expecting attacks on stage 12

Vanthourenhout is expecting third-place Felix Gall's Decathlon CMA CGM team to take control once again on stage 12, with the Austrian needing to make up time on both Mas and Roglič. He's put his strong team to work several times, notably destroying the peloton on stage 9 up the Alto de Aitana, but hasn't been able to add the finishing touch.

Roglič has little in the way of climbing support outside of young Australian Luke Tuckwell, and Mas too doesn't have domestiques working for him on the level of Gregor Mühlberger, and Gall has already shown that Decathlon aren't going to go down without a serious fight.

"I think Decathlon's still gonna try something, I'm sure. Also, even if it's just for a stage win or to win some time again towards Mas and Primož and also Oscar Onley. So it will be interesting," said Vanthourenhout.

"Also, Mas, I think he's still going to fight for some more seconds and a bigger time gap than he has now. He also knows that even if it is still a nice 1:00 to 1:30 advantage on his contenders, it's still not enough to win the Vuelta. So for sure he's also going to try it now in that second week to take some seconds or do some moves, but we have our plan and made that clear on the rest day."

While the most famous moment of his career has been letting the 2020 Tour slip away in the final time trial to Pogačar, Roglič has also chased down riders in the final week to win Grand Tours in the past, even as recently as Ben O'Connor in 2024, when he didn't go into the red until stage 19.

But at 36 and with crashes and injuries continuing to hamper him from having ideal preparation for his biggest goals, has Roglič still got it in him to claim a fifth Vuelta a España title, and stand alone as the record holder?

All may become clear on stage 12's last two climbs, the Alto de Velefique and the final ascent to Calar Alto.

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