Tadej Pogačar could win the Vuelta a España by 10 minutes but total domination is unlikely – Philippa York analysis

Less than three weeks before of the Vuelta a España, the majority of those who would be making up the peloton received troubling news – news that some may have expected but most secretly hoped would never arrive. Tadej Pogačar would be riding the final Grand Tour of the year. In that press release, everything changed, for all the GC riders and all the teams who were basing their race on escaping the clutches of the UAE armada.

There were perhaps two slight hopes that maybe, just maybe, things could be different. Firstly, the world’s No.1 ranked rider might not have recovered fully after his fifth Tour de France victory, and secondly, UAE Team Emirates-XRG could only muster a tired and substandard collective to back him up. Both options seem doomed to failure.

Consulting the Slovenian’s recuperation history, you notice there are no glaring moments of weakness when he has been injury-free. And then with the idea that his teammates might not be up to the task, none of them have done a Grand Tour this year, which means they all arrive at the start in Monaco super motivated to impress everyone.

There may have been a few DNFs due to illness, injury and race incidents for the likes of João Almeida and Jay Vine but this is an opportunity for each of them to grab with both hands, if they can. Remaining high up in the hierarchy of the number one team means they can be spared most of the daily grind and have the chance to be part of the moments that decide the race. They may be described as super domestiques in the service of Pogačar but it is always good to remember they come with statistics that are rather daunting.

Almeida was second here last year and Jay Vine has won four stages and been best climber twice. Basically, they would be team leaders if they weren’t on UAE, which places them in a similar position to the one Isaac Del Toro enjoyed in this year’s Tour de France.

However, contrary to the Tour, the opposition at the Vuelta is certainly weaker. The mathematics are quite simple for Pogačar’s nearest rivals. Jonas Vingegaard rode the Giro d’Italia within himself whenever he could and still finished over five minutes ahead of Felix Gall, and yet one month later on the roads of France the Dane was four and a half minutes in arrears to Pogačar after 14 stages.

We didn’t get to find out if that gap would have grown as Vingegaard left the race on day 15 but what it does tell us is if Pogačar wants to make a statement then second on GC is likely to be close to 10 minutes behind by the finish in Granada.

Total domination is unlikely

Luckily, there are a couple of things that make total domination unlikely. There’ll still be days when Tadej turns on the afterburners and rides away from everyone but this is a race he will want to get through with the least stress possible. Physically, he will need to be fairly cautious as there remain two big objectives afterwards, the World Championships in Montréal and then the season’s final Monument, Il Lombardia, so recovery is important.

And then there’s the mental aspect to consider. A three-week race at this stage of the season, when you have won nearly every race that you planned to, might begin to weigh heavy on the mind. Grand Tours are rarely fun and Pogačar will want the least pressure possible, which is where Almeida and Vine step in and take some of the responsibilities off their team leader’s shoulders. If either are given a chance to take the red jersey then that’s fewer media and podium duties and more recovery for Pogačar.

It’s an opportunity which often opens up when there’s one big favourite and everyone waits for them to make a move, and if the situation happens out on the road then both of the UAE lieutenants will be expected to seize it.

Meanwhile, for those not on UAE, the decision will be when do they start racing for the other podium positions below Pogačar. Cruel it may be, but realistically the other GC riders know they won’t be following Pogačar when he decides it’s a day for winning so the likelihood is the Slovenian will go ahead and do his thing and everyone else will compete amongst themselves.

The best of the rest

Looking at the route, the sheer number of mountain or hill-top finishes means it’s unlikely we will see any of the GC challengers completely dominate in what I’ll call the Gall/Onley group.

If you look at Felix Gall, his characteristics suit long sustained uphill efforts, while Oscar Onley is more suited to the sharper steeper climbs. The Netcompany-Ineos leader is more explosive so that’s typically climbing days in Andorra, whilst Gall is much more steady in how he paces himself and that’s the last week down in the south. In between, the middle week, expect some echelons and fighting for position, which isn’t a Felix Gall strong point so the talk of him being the obvious runner-up isn’t a given.

What is for sure is in the GC group almost everyone bar Richard Carapaz has something to prove. Cian Uijtdebroeks has to salvage a disappointing season, Enric Mas needs a win and something better than an expected 8th place. Onley requires some confidence and Netcompany a bit of unity to be installed after a few fractious comments between teammates. Over at Lidl-Trek, they can probably count on Mattias Skjelmose to be in the top five but a stage win would be nice along with it.

And then there’s Primož Roglič. Let’s hope he doesn’t crash in the first week and he can settle into his favourite race. The stated tactic of not riding for GC is an interesting one but few will believe it until he loses 10 minutes because if he’s still there in the last week then with the experience he has the 32km time trial is in his favour. He’s not racing Pogačar but outside of him the other GC riders aren’t exactly specialists on the TT bike.

The fast men

The fast men aren’t numerous at this Vuelta, understandably so given the climbing involved. However, we will get to see how Visma-Lease a Bike manage the Wout Van Aert and Matthew Brennan situation.

Van Aert is on the rise after a few setbacks in the middle of the season and the young Brit lines up for his first Grand Tour.

Jordi Meeus is one place higher in the sprint rankings but with Christophe Laporte also in the Visma line-up the betting person would be right in thinking the odds are in favour of the Dutch squad.

And they have Sepp Kuss, who may or may not be GC Kuss. However, commencing Saturday on the shiny streets of Monaco we will have three weeks of action to find out if any of the pre-race speculation was accurate.

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