Tadej Pogačar's final challenges: Paris-Roubaix – Mission impossible?

This is part of a mini-series exploring five of the major achievements missing from Tadej Pogačar's already stunning palmarès: Milan-San Remo, Paris-Roubaix, the Vuelta a España, an Olympic title, and a record-equalling fifth Tour de France title.

Can he tick these off? We're taking a closer look at each race to analyse his chances.

Tadej Pogačar hasn't quite won it all in professional road cycling, but he's not all that far off after seven years of racing at the top level.

The Slovenian has so far racked up Grand Tour wins at the Tour de France and Giro d'Italia, Monument wins at the Tour of Flanders, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Il Lombardia, various WorldTour stage race victories including Tirreno-Adriatico, Paris-Nice and Critérium du Dauphiné, other major one-dayers including Strade Bianche, Amstel Gold Race, La Flèche Wallonne, plus a couple of world titles to boot.

A short list of major races is currently missing from Pogačar's palmarès, including the Vuelta a España, a clutch of other major stage races, Olympic titles and two of cycling's Monuments.

We've already analysed his chances at one of the toughest challenges lying ahead of him in the shape of La Classicissima, Milan-San Remo. In the second part of our series, we're looking at another momentous task – Paris-Roubaix.

Unlike his relationship with Milan-San Remo, there isn't a long history between Pogačar and the Hell of the North. He has tried, and so far failed, to win the Italian Monument on five occasions, taking third place in each of the past two editions.

Meanwhile, back in 2015 and 2016, he competed in the junior version of Paris-Roubaix, placing 13th at the latter. He wouldn't revisit the cobblestones of Northern France until this past spring, however, a break of almost a decade before taking on the challenge of the elite race.

As such, he obviously has less experience on the harsh cobbles of the Nord, at a race where it's said experience counts if you want to succeed. That maxim usually rings true, since few riders can turn up and compete at the sharp end of affairs straight away.

However, that obviously wasn't the case for Pogačar, who raced a limited spring campaign – including only Flanders from the usual schedule of cobbled Classics – before heading to Roubaix for the first time as a pro.

It was a debut long teased and much rumoured amid the clear tension of Pogačar wanting to have fun and take part in the biggest races on the calendar versus his team preferring him to avoid the cobbles, tricky roads and risk of crashes of the Classics to instead focus on the big money maker of the Tour de France.

The talk started in mid-February when he and teammate Tim Wellens rode a recon of the race route, including the iconic Trouée d'Arenberg.

From there, his directeur sportif Marco Marcato played down the chances of Pogačar racing, saying, "Paris-Roubaix is still not on Tadej's programme," before the man himself kept the speculation alive by saying a decision would be made after San Remo.

The Italian Classic came and went, with Pogačar again on the podium without a win, and four days later, he confirmed that he'd be lining up in Compiègne, despite his team remaining at odds with him over the decision.

The E3 Saxo Classic and Gent-Wevelgem were subsequently wiped off his calendar, with only Flanders – another win to add to the list – serving as a 'warm-up' for the Hell of the North.

Come race day, few quite knew what to expect, though Pogačar was, naturally, on the list of favourites despite his lack of experience. It's hard to avoid doing so wherever he shows up nowadays, after all.

He had set several Strava records during a recon ride in the week before the race and then more than lived up to that promise during the five-and-a-half-hour slog north itself.

Despite there being no climbs on which to mount an attack, Pogačar tried and tried again to break clear, with a move at 72km to go on the Tilloy à Sars-et-Rosières sector, landing him at the head of the race alone with the Alpecin-Deceuninck duo, Van der Poel and Jasper Philipsen.

The Belgian would last until Mons-en-Pévèle, leaving the debutant and the double-winner to battle it out during the closing 51km. It wouldn't be a fight all the way to the Vélodrome André-Pétrieux, however, as Pogačar went too deep into a corner on the Pont-Thibault à Ennevelin sector, 40km from the finish, hitting the deck and dropping out of contention in the process.

In the end, Pogačar, who like Van der Poel, also battled through a puncture late on, got to Roubaix in second place, 1:18 down on the Dutchman. A fantastic showing, even if it wasn't the win he had hoped for. His team came away with their star rider having avoided any major injuries, too.

Afterwards, Pogačar called Roubaix "the hardest race I've ever done in my life" in terms of power output, and briefly mentioned "next time I come here", while Van der Poel said, "for sure, he'll be back to try and win this race".

But will that return come in 2026? And how can he beat the man who has now taken home the cobblestone trophy in each of the past three years?

How can Tadej Pogačar win Paris-Roubaix?

This is a tough question. While the Milan-San Remo route may offer up a handful of potential launchpads with which the best climber in the peloton, such as the Cipressa and Poggio, there are fewer obvious locations where he might drop the likes of Van der Poel and race on to glory. Well, to be frank, there are no such locations, given that Paris-Roubaix is a race with no hills.

Of course, the Paris-Roubaix parcours features numerous flashpoints where the big moves are made. The first main sortings-out happen at Haveluy à Wallers and the Arenberg. Later on in the race, Mons-en-Pévèle, Camphine-en-Pévèle, and Carrefour de l'Arbre more often than not play host to the decisive moves.

Pogačar will need to leave behind the specialists – Van der Poel, Philipsen, Mads Pedersen, Wout van Aert – somewhere. In 2025, he dispatched with most of them, though he was lucky in that Pedersen suffered a puncture just as the decisive split was made at the front.

It's hard to see where that can happen, though, especially given the raw power and winning know-how Van der Poel possesses. The three-time winner has soloed to the finish of Paris-Roubaix with advantages of 46 seconds, three minutes, and 1:18 for an average of 1:41. Those aren't small margins to close up, let alone match and then leave that rider behind.

The reality of the situation is that, no matter where he attacks or what tactic he pulls out of the bag, Pogačar simply isn't going to produce as much power on the flat as Van der Poel, who weighs in 10kg heavier. We've seen that he can drop the Dutchman on the bergs of the Tour of Flanders – it's where his lower weight, and thus, higher power-to-weight ratio, comes into play.

Obviously, Pogačar can't use that to his advantage at Paris-Roubaix, and given his Grand Tour commitments, the chances of him piling on the pounds to target one race seem vanishingly small.

But maybe he doesn't need to. He was with Van der Poel well into the final, after all. On his debut, too, having demonstrated he was stronger than every other cobbled Classics specialist in the race, putting to one side the poor luck of Pedersen and a Van Aert not at 100%.

And that was after a flurry of attacks and moves dotted throughout the race – some of them which can perhaps be dialled back in future participations. Just 30km into this year's race, he was chasing down moves at the front of the peloton, while later on, he led the race through the Arenberg. Then there were the attacks at Wallers, Tilloy and Mons-en-Pévèle before the brief acceleration at Pont Thibault before his fall.

Those attacks added up to "the hardest race I've done in my life" he said later, adding that his crash was also caused by inexperience – "When you go full gas and motos are in front of you and they don't turn, you also think there's no turn. But I should know there's a corner, so no excuses," he said.

With some experience behind him, a touch of energy-saving riding here and there, and that extra course know-how, who's to say he couldn't match Van der Poel further into the race – perhaps even to the velodrome – in future?

It'll take something extra to pull off the win, though. Dropping Van der Poel before the finish, or even beating the likes of him, Philipsen, Pedersen and Van Aert in a velodrome sprint, might just come down to legs on the day or a stroke of luck rather than any particular strategic move.

Tadej Pogačar has won plenty of races during his career, and he looks set to win plenty more. Along with Milan-San Remo, Paris-Roubaix poses the biggest challenge yet, and the two races look like the hardest challenges of all. He's already stood on the podium of both, but the step up to the top step is a big one.

What do you think? Can Pogačar win Paris-Roubaix, or could it end up something he's left chasing? Tell us your thoughts in the comments!