Tadej Pogačar has warned against reading too much into his knock-out early success against his GC rivals in the opening time trial of the Vuelta a España, but after just 9.4 kilometres of racing, the direction of travel in the GC battle has already been established.
It is true that Pogačar claimed his first-ever lead in the Vuelta a España by the ultra-narrow margin of just 0.09 seconds over Ethan Hayter (Soudal-QuickStep), although in the Tour de Suisse this year, he took his previous time trial win by even less, just 0.04 seconds over Mathieu van der Poel.
Long-term, though, what's more important is that Pogačar has established a gap of 18 seconds on his closest GC 'rival' - his teammate Joao Almeida, and not therefore a threat - whilst next up is veteran star Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe), 22 seconds back.
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Whilst Roglič's result is to his immense credit, given he's on the comeback trail from a major training injury, Pogačar has still gained over two seconds per kilometre on the four-time Vuelta a España winner, on such a technical course where the UAE leader said it'd be hard to beat the specialists, too. And the rest of the GC field is even further adrift.
In any case, Pogačar said in his winner's press conference, the first real test of the race will be Andorra on stage 4, the first full day in the mountains in this year's Vuelta, and not too much should be read into the time trial result.
"I still haven't seen the results from today, so I don't know who did well or who did not but I think today is not the best indicator of who will be in the podium in the end," Pogačar argued.
"We saw a lot of riders in good shape in [the Vuelta a] Burgos or in other races, and some guys are coming from the Tour de France as well.
"I think it's going to be very interesting to see, but I think we will know for sure who is a big contender on stage 4 in Andorra.
"There is already a big chance to lose the jersey, too, with the possible breakaway or sprint stage. The margins are very, very small today.
"So we'll enjoy tomorrow's [Sunday's] day wearing red. And yeah, that's all."
Pogačar also revealed that August is apparently never a good month for him in terms of performance. However, given his time trial in Monaco, with Carlos Rodríguez (Netcompany-Ineos) now the next-best-placed GC contender after an ailing Roglič at 27 seconds, and Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) at 29 seconds, his rivals may not draw much encouragement from that admission.
"People who know me really well will know that I'm always struggling a little bit struggling in August," Pogačar claimed, "especially when I was under-23 and a Junior.
"After a small break, July was just training, August was training, and then I would get to the first race, and I always suffered. But this time I tried to ignore this and come really well prepared. The Tour finished just three weeks ago or something, so I was just trying to keep that shape, and I'm happy to win in August as well."
There was plenty of evidence on show on Saturday that Pogačar had managed to do that, although he did point to having a 'home advantage' when it came to racing in Monaco. Knowing the route so well meant that, despite - assuming he took his own pre-stage advice - braking a lot on the never-ending series of corners on an ultra-technical circuit, he was able to claim his first Grand Tour TT win since Peyragudes uphill test in the Tour de France back in 2025.
"I think that's because I was on a good day and I was motivated because I live here and the course passed where I go every day with a bike or walking. It was a big confidence boost because I knew every corner really well, so I did not need to take any risks," he explained.
"I was comfortable through the technical parts, and after every corner I felt good. There was no real pacing strategy; it was just like going all out on this 10-minute effort with a lot of corners.
"I just needed to be fast out of corners and hope that I managed my effort until the end."
Pogačar did so with such success that he came back from over two seconds down on runner-up Ethan Hayter (Soudal-QuickStep) at the intermediate checkpoint to move into top spot by the finish line. That was a replica, in some ways, of what happened in the Tour de Suisse, he recognised, although given his good fortune, he joked, maybe he should stop at the Monaco Casino - where the stage started - to lay a bet or two.
"I don’t win a lot of time trials, but in Suisse with Van der Poel it was also something similar so yeah I'm a lucky guy. It's a really tiny margin, but a win is a win, and I'm super happy to take it."
That said, Pogačar recognised that even if he had a determination to do as well as possible, he was also aware that Josh Tarling (Netcompany Ineos) had the fastest time when he was battling towards victory. That had produced very mixed feelings, given the death of Josh Tarling's brother, Finlay, the week before in the Volta a Portugal, and the decision then made by the Netcompany Ineos rider and TT specialist to take part in the Vuelta.
“Of course I was going to give my best, but it was kind of a strange moment," Pogačar said, saying he was torn between his own desire to compete and his hoping Josh Tarling would win, too. "I was really rooting for Josh as well.”
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