Since Enric Mas (Movistar) stepped into the red leader's jersey at the Vuelta a España when Tadej Pogačar crashed he has looked every bit in command, but while his supremacy hasn't faltered in the mountains the big question mark has been the looming race against the clock.
Second-placed Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM) is seen as more evenly matched in the discipline but Primož Roglič, who is close behind in third, undoubtedly has a significant edge in the discipline, and a history of making it count at the Spanish Grand Tour.
The four-time Vuelta a España winner in fact clinched his last victory at the 2024 edition by unseating Ben O'Connor in the 24.6km time trial.
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That day in 2024 Mas, who finished third overall, was more than a minute slower than Roglič. Thursday's time trial on stage 18, however, is longer at 32.1km and that's not where the differences end.
"It is looking good," Movistar Director of Racing Matt White told TNT Sports after stage 15, with riders headed into a rest day before the final week of racing unfolds.
"I’m comfortable with the cushion that he’s got at the moment on especially Primož. We know that Enric’s time trialing is not his his forte, but I think we’ve seen probably the best version of Enric Mas, maybe ever, and I think you know Primož is in a good place, but it’s also probably not the best we’ve seen Primož over the last decade as well. So I think it’s a comfortable place to go into the last week."
Mas, who has stood on the Vuelta overall podium four times but never before on the top step at the end, headed in the final rest day with a gap of 2:06 to Gall and 2:10 to Roglič.
White said that is a gap that makes the team comfortable as they were factoring in a potential time loss of around 3 seconds a kilometre to Roglič while with Gall it may be a more even battle.
"He might not even lose time to Gall in the TT," White told broadcaster TNT Sport. "But Primož, I would expect he’ll definitely lose time. How much? Obviously we are guessing, but I would expect 90 seconds."
What's more, there is far more than the time trial ahead to challenge the GC riders in the week ahead, with an uphill finish on stage 19 and another day in the mountains on stage 20 with a challenging final climb up the Collado del Alguacil.
This is the type of terrain where Mas has already stretched his gap by just over a minute since stepping into the top spot at the race on stage 8.
"That’s why I think him being more than two minutes is comfortable because we’ve got two big stages post TT," said White, adding that Mas hasn't shown any weakness so far and he's traditionally a very solid rider in the third week.
"So I think we’re in a good place, but the race is far from over. But I would have been a lot more nervous if he had a 45 second, one minute, 1:15 sort of a lead."
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