Enric Mas (Movistar) may be in the lead of the ongoing Vuelta a España, and Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) is the closest to his hold over the red jersey, but it's persistent attacker Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) who likely holds the key to whether Saturday's final mountain stage turns the race completely on its head.
Perhaps the most exciting rider in the whole peloton, everyone knows that Carapaz, at some point, at any moment, is going to attack if the road presents an opportunity for him. Even when it doesn't, and logic is against him, his pink jersey still seems to be on the move or threatening to potentially disappear up the road.
Sat fourth overall and more than five minutes down on the overall lead of Mas, challenging for red seems impossible, and with 2:16 to make up on Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM) to snatch the final podium spot, that would also require something special.
Latest Videos FromCyclingnews
But these numbers mean nothing to the peloton's swashbuckling, instinctive master, who will most certainly be lighting up any of the final four brutal climbs on stage 20 to Collado del Alguacil.
"Yes, I'll try again. In the end, I have nothing to prove," said Carapaz at the finish. "Tomorrow will be a different stage. There are a lot of climbs in sequence, just how I like."
Carapaz made his first move on stage 19 with more than 100km to go, jumping out of the GC group in search of joining the breakaway. With 95.8km to go, he was accelerating again, with Darren Rafferty dropping back to help him from the lead group.
In the end, a dropped chain for the Irishman and a concerted effort from Movistar and Decathlon saw him brought back, and that move came to nothing, but it certainly accelerated the heart rates of those around him in the GC.
With the move coming away from the TV broadcast, fifth-place Oscar Onley (Netcompany Ineos) was asked to shed some more light on the moment by Eurosport, but was unable to, as he was also blindsided.
"I also didn't see it. I was getting some food out of the feed bag, then looked up and I saw splits everywhere," said Onley.
"He's the kind of guy who will look for every opportunity; he really takes the race on, so to be honest, I was expecting him to do something. I didn't know where, which I guess is the whole point; he wants to try and surprise everyone. I think probably tomorrow he's also going to try something."
Gall made a similar assessment when asked if the long-range attempt from Carapaz was by any means a surprise to him: "Absolutely not, in fact I'd be surprised if he didn't try to make moves of this kind."
With former three-time Vuelta stage winner and GC runner-up Carapaz almost guaranteed to be on the attack again, it leaves the possibility of Mas losing teammates early to keep him under control, but also just an early whittling down of all of the top riders' support, opening the door to more chaos.
And he isn't the only one in the top 10 in search of a stage victory from an opportunistic move. Former Vuelta winner Sepp Kuss is also coming into play to try and get in the breaks and bring Visma-Lease a Bike an eighth stage win, but he too is being marked by the likes of Movistar and Ineos.
"He was attacking so much I think everyone in the bunch covered him at some point. He was really active, and also Carapaz towards the end of the break formation," said Onley.
"Someone like Sepp, you don't want to let up the road, even though he's four minutes or so down on me; obviously, he won the Vuelta by doing something like this, so everyone's aware of it now."
Mas and Movistar have been able to control almost everything perfectly since he inherited the red jersey some 10 stages ago, but 1:37 from Roglič is close enough that they still can't afford any mistakes on Saturday, and choosing who and when they do chase down certain rivals could prove vital.
If anyone is going to put the type of pressure on them to put a foot wrong, it looks likely to be their former teammate Carapaz. Keeping him on a tight leash once the action kicks off may be essential to delivering Mas into the final mountains of this Vuelta where he needs to be, but that is much easier said than done, and with nothing to lose, he is a genuine threat to their hold on the race being weakened at the last.
For unbeatable coverage across road, gravel and tech, subscribe to Cyclingnews. You'll get comprehensive race coverage of La Vuelta a España, subscriber-exclusive analysis from our expert columnists, in-depth features and industry-leading tech insight. Plus, the Cyclingnews app lets you follow the action wherever you go! Join today.
