When is a positive not a positive? COVID-19 and the Tour de France

PLOUAY FRANCE AUGUST 25 Podium Luka Mezgec of Slovenia and Team Mitchelton Scott Florian Senechal of France and Team Deceuninck QuickStep Celebration Flowers Mask Covid safety measures during the 84th Bretagne Classic OuestFrance 2020 a 2478km race from Plouay to Plouay GrandPrixPlouay GPPlouay on August 25 2020 in Plouay France Photo by Luc ClaessenGetty Images
The fist-bump has replaced the handshake during the COVID-19 pandemic (Image credit: Getty Images Sport)

Disclaimer: The coronavirus pandemic is a serious problem and COVID-19 has led to over 800,000 deaths worldwide. There is no doubt that people should be taking every precaution to keep from spreading SARS-CoV-2. This information is not meant to contradict public health policy or inform medical decisions. It only applies to situations where COVID-19 infections are expected to be very low such as the Tour de France bubble, so wear a mask, wash your hands, and stand clear of the riders, please.

The stakes are high for this shortened season of professional cycling. If COVID-19 spreads at the Tour de France, the consequences will be dire for the ASO, the UCI, the racing season and the population.

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Without re-testing
Header Cell - Column 0 Has COVIDHealthyTotalPPV
Positive test8010018044.40%
Negative test209980099820100.00%
 (20% false negative rate)(0.01% false positive rate)0.18% of tests positiveRow 3 - Cell 4
Row 4 - Cell 0 Row 4 - Cell 1 Row 4 - Cell 2 Row 4 - Cell 3 Row 4 - Cell 4
Row 5 - Cell 0 Chance you have COVIDChance you don'tRow 5 - Cell 3 Row 5 - Cell 4
If test result is positive44.4%55.6%Row 6 - Cell 3 Row 6 - Cell 4
If test result is negative0%100%Row 7 - Cell 3 Row 7 - Cell 4
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With sample retesting at 100 cases/100,000
Header Cell - Column 0 Have COVID-19HealthyTotals
Actual status100 99,900 100,000
First result positive80100180
Second result positive64064
Second result negative16100116
First result negative20 99,800 99,820
Second result positive16100116
Second result negative499,70099,704
  Chance person has COVIDChance person COVID-free
Two positive results  100.00%0.00%
Two negative results  0.00%100.00%
One of each  13.8%86.2%

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Laura Weislo
Managing Editor

Laura Weislo has been with Cyclingnews since 2006 after making a switch from a career in science. As Managing Editor, she coordinates coverage for North American events and global news. As former elite-level road racer who dabbled in cyclo-cross and track, Laura has a passion for all three disciplines. When not working she likes to go camping and explore lesser traveled roads, paths and gravel tracks. Laura specialises in covering doping, anti-doping, UCI governance and performing data analysis.