Paris-Nice 2022 – Preview

Primož Roglič’s unfinished business in France is one of the overarching themes of the 2022 season, and his first opportunity to settle part of the account comes at Paris-Nice, where a heavy crash on the final stage denied him overall victory a year ago.

Up to that point, Roglič’s dominance had been more or less absolute. After proving the best of the overall contenders in the early time trial, he went on to notch up three stage victories, the third of which saw him channel his inner Hinault and swoop past escapee Gino Mäder within sight of the line at La Colmiane.

That finale was a prime example of what has been jokingly termed as ‘Roglification,’ the process by which Roglič routinely dashes the hopes of breakaways and rivals on uphill finales.

Indeed, in some ways, Roglič goes about divesting short stage races of suspense in something like the relentless manner of Sean Kelly during his sequence of seven consecutive Paris-Nice victories in the 1980s. Only periodic (and costly) bouts of ill fortune last year's crash ever seem to stop the Slovenian.

“Kelly would have disgusted Hitchcock,” was Vélo Magazine’s playful lament when the Irishman won his final Paris-Nice in 1988. Jean-François Bernard, for his part, jokingly confessed that he had attempted bribery: “I even said to him, if you let me win Paris-Nice some day, I’ll give you my Porsche.” Nothing to be done, in the words of another Irishman in France.

The peloton that assembles for the start of Paris-Nice in Mantes-la-Ville on Sunday could be forgiven for feeling a similar sense of resignation. Beginning with his victory at the 2018 Itzulia Basque Country, Roglič has won eight out of his last 11 stage races of a week or less in length. And, were it not for heavy crashes at both the 2020 Dauphiné and last year’s Paris-Nice, that record would most likely stand at an even more striking 10 out of 11.

But then, bad luck has been just as inextricable a part of the Roglič narrative as his metronomic consistency. The crash that ruined his Paris-Nice last year was a foretaste of the fall that prematurely ended his Tour de France challenge in the summer. And, in three-week tours, of course, Roglič has occasionally left himself prey to sucker punches by failing to convert physical superiority into commensurate time gaps.

That is July’s concern. In the here and now, Roglič reports for Paris-Nice as the favourite, and he will be backed by a squad of considerable depth, including Rohan Dennis and Steven Kruijswijk. Wout van Aert – another kind of latter-day Kelly – is ostensibly here to warm up for the Classics, but he could find himself a GC contender too if the mood strikes him.

Roglič began his season in the Ardèche last weekend, but Paris-Nice is the first real test and first true objective. It won’t have escaped his attention that his fellow countryman Tadej Pogačar won the UAE Tour last week and will line out as the favourite at Tirreno-Adriatico next week while Roglič is in France.

Indeed, theirs will be a match by correspondence in the opening half of the season, given that they won’t line up together in a stage race until they face off at the Tour. For Roglič, carrying yellow to Nice next weekend would be a striking, but hardly surprising, opening gambit – though the competition will be stiff.

The challengers

It seems remiss to place Max Schachmann (Bora-Hansgrohe) among the long list of challengers given that he has won the past two editions of Paris-Nice. Like last year, the Race to the Sun is his first race of the new campaign and after a difficult end to 2021, he will be keen to hit the ground running here. He is one of two GC options for Bora-Hansgrohe, who also field Aleksandr Vlasov, winner of the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana and 4th in the UAE. 

Although Pogačar will be in Italy, UAE Team Emirates also boast two contenders. João Almeida rode strongly on Pogačar’s behalf at the UAE Tour, but Brandon McNulty has been in imperious form since the start of the season, landing remarkable solo wins in Mallorca and the Classic Faun Ardèche and placing second overall at the Volta ao Algarve. If the technical wrinkles that blighted his time trial display in Portugal are ironed out, the American could well prove Roglič’s sternest rival. And, like Roglič, McNulty has a score to settle with the race after a crash ended his challenge last year.

Daniel Martínez (Ineos Grenadiers) was another rider to catch the eye in the Algarve and he links up here with Adam Yates, who pushed Pogačar considerably on the final day in the UAE. The team has won Paris-Nice six times over the years and the race has traditionally been an augur of what might follow for them in July. Simon Yates (BikeExchange-Jacyco) led Paris-Nice into the final day in 2018 only to lose yellow to a surprising Marc Soler. He will look to make amends here as he builds towards another tilt at the Giro d’Italia. A deep Bahrain Victorious squad features Wout Poels and Jack Haig.

Elsewhere, Ben O’Connor (AG2R Citroën), a break-out star of last summer, will hope to confirm himself this year and Paris-Nice is one of the key events of his early season. The same goes for David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), who warmed up with a stage win the Algarve, while Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) has made a strong start to the season on French roads.

So, too, has Nairo Quintana (Arkéa-Samsic), winner of the Tour de la Provence and the Tour des Alpes Maritimes et du Var so far this year, a replica of his opening to the 2020 campaign. On that occasion, he added a Paris-Nice stage win at La Colmiane and, on the evidence to date, he should shine on the Col de Turini summit finish here. His ability to navigate echelons also places him firmly among the top tier of Roglič’s rivals in the Race to the Sun.

Beyond the GC men, the Paris-Nice peloton comprises the usual roll call of sprinters and riders quietly amassing racing kilometres ahead of the Classics. Fabio Jakobsen (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl) is the man to beat in the sprints, but Sam Bennett (Bora-Hansgrohe), Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain Victorious) and Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Fenix) lead the opposition. Ethan Hayter (Ineos), Matteo Trentin (UAE Team Emirates), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ), Oliver Naesen  (AG2R), Alexey Lutsenko (Astana-Premier Tech), Mads Pedersen, Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo) and Yves Lampaert (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl) will run through their paces before the Classics here – as, of course, will one Wout van Aert. 

The route

'Balance and variety' was ASO's tagline when it presented a Paris-Nice route that, as ever, offers something for everybody. The opening stage around Mantes-la-Jolie is sufficiently flat for a bunch sprint but dotted with just enough hills to provide a launchpad for attackers.

As ever in this race, much could depend on the weather conditions. Stage 2 to Orleans and stage 3 to Dun-le-Palestel are of a similar vein. Ostensibly, the terrain lends itself to bunch finishes, but the exposed roads invite echelons in the event of wind. 

If the general classification hasn't been blown open in the opening phase, it will certainly take on a different guise following the 13.4km time trial from Domérat to Montluçon on stage 4. Competition for stage victory should also be fierce, with Stefan Bissegger (EF Education-EasyPost), Küng, Van Aert, Roglič and Dennis among the contenders. 

The road gets rather more rugged from that point on. Stage 5 to St-Sauveur-de Montagut features some 3,350m of elevation gain, as the race tackles the category-1 Croix de Chaubouret, Cote de Saint-Romain-de-Lerps and Col de la Mure. The longest stage of the race to Aubagne follows, and the category-2 Espigoulier could be a springboard for attackers in the finale.

The final weekend, meanwhile, has a familiar look. The penultimate stage brings the race to a summit finish on the category-1 Col de Turini (15.5km at 7.2 per cent), where Dani Martinez won in 2019 as Egan Bernal moved into the overall lead. The climb is tough enough to provoke significant gaps, but nothing is ever certain before the final day at Paris-Nice.

In keeping with recent tradition, the race finishes with a short and hilly stage around Nice. The Côtes de Levens, Châteauneuf, Berre-les-Alps and Pelle feature in the 115km stage before the final ascent of the Col d'Èze, this year tackled by a new and slightly steeper (6.1km at 7.6 per cent) approach. From the summit, it's a breathless 16km drop to the finish on the Promenade des Anglais and the race's end.