Tadej Pogačar's final challenges: An Olympic title – the cherry on top which might end up eluding him

This is part of a mini-series exploring five of the major achievements missing from Tadej Pogačar's already stunning palmarès: Milan-San Remo, Paris-Roubaix, the Vuelta a España, an Olympic title, and a record-equalling fifth Tour de France title.

Can he tick these off? We're taking a closer look at each race to analyse his chances.

As a prolific winner in both the Classics and Grand Tours, Tadej Pogačar is constantly compared to Eddy Merckx, and there is always debate about which rider is better, who deserves to be called the greatest of all time, and whether we should even compare the two, given they race in such different eras.

Wherever your opinions lie on those debates, they don't seem to be going anywhere, especially as Pogačar closes in on more of Merckx's records and comes closer to a palmarès comparable to his overwhelming list of wins.

And for the most part, what Pogačar is doing is just that: chasing records and achievements that Merckx already became the first to do. The Slovenian largely isn't trying to better the Cannibal, just match him, given how the legendary Belgian won literally everything.

But there is one race that Merckx never won, that Pogačar could, meaning he could finally lay claim to doing something that his rival in history never did. The achievement in question? An Olympic title.

Having won national, World and European titles, it's the only major victory Pogačar is yet to tick off, and would really give him the full house of major wins.

Now, I must say very early doors that Eddy Merckx was only eligible to race in the Olympic Games once, because until 1996, only amateur cyclists were able to participate. Merckx rode as an amateur in 1964 in Tokyo, just after he'd become Amateur World Champion, and he finished 12th in the road race. He never had the chance to go for gold after that.

It's not like cyclists generally get several attempts at the Olympics – given they only come around every four years and cycling careers are short, and teams are small, most will only race the Olympics once or twice in their careers – but it's an important point to make that Merckx wasn't repeatedly failing at this goal.

However, the basic truth still remains: an Olympic title is probably the biggest thing Tadej Pogačar could achieve that Merckx didn't, barring perhaps only if he wins six Tours de France. But does he have a chance at a gold medal?

One big chance at Los Angeles 2028

The big intrigue around the Olympics is that, unlike Pogačar's other outstanding goals, which come around every year, he really only has one more chance at an Olympic gold medal, and that's in Los Angeles in 2028.

He's often spoken about how he's definitely going to continue through to 2028 and then assess his career, and though he recently underlined that he plans to race until his contract expires in 2030, the way he has been talking does make it sound like he plans to call it a day before the following Games in 2032. So LA is likely his only chance.

Pogačar has already raced one Olympic Games, in 2021 in Tokyo, and he won a medal there, finishing third in the road race behind Richard Carapaz and Wout van Aert. He didn't ride the time trial as Slovenia selected Primož Roglič, with him going on to win gold.

We don't know the exact course for the road race in LA, only that it will start at Venice Beach and is set to be around 250km long. However, the Californian hills seem primed for a climb-heavy course, with many speculating about possible routes and circuits that are super challenging.

This would be a really new terrain for Pogačar – and everyone – but certainly plays into his strengths. We've seen from the last two World Championships that he's a master on long circuits as much as he is in Tour de France mountain stages. So it isn't hard to see why he is already eyeing LA as a possible climactic point of his career.

What it would take for him to win

The thing with the Olympics is that the factor behind most wins is a bit of luck. Of course, being strong and suited to the course are fundamentally important, but beyond that, Olympic road races can be fairly chaotic and random. Were Anna Kiesenhofer and Richard Carapaz the best riders in the world when they won in Tokyo? No, but things fell into place on the day, and that's what matters.

One positive for Pogačar is that, largely down to his success, Slovenia will have one of the higher quotas for team spots in LA. It's still small, as only 90 riders start the men's road race, but he'll start in a better position than most.

And whilst luck is certainly part of winning, so is ambition and bravery. Think about Remco Evenepoel's victory in Paris in 2024; a big part of that win was just determination and a bold ride. And the good thing for Pogačar is that he has heaps of that, and clearly isn't afraid to go on a big, long attack – and they usually work.

But that all said, Olympic road races are among the hardest races to predict or foresee, and the event where the most unexpected things can and have happened.

Could he win the time trial instead, as that's more predictable? It's certainly not impossible, and winning the Olympics TT would still be an Olympic title. Still, history has shown that Pogačar's record in one-off TTs – outside of stage races – is not that impressive, and with specialists like Filippo Ganna and Josh Tarling likely to be targeting the TT in LA, his chances there don't seem huge.

So, if he wants to add a cherry on top of an already stellar career and do something Eddy Merckx never did, he just needs everything to go right for him on one day in California in two and a half years.

With just one chance, and so many examples of how this one big race can have really surprising outcomes, there's a good chance the Olympic gold medal might end up – like it was for Merckx, in perhaps fated symmetry – the one thing Pogačar doesn't manage.

What do you think? Can Tadej Pogačar win in LA to better Merckx? Tell us in the comments below.