Milan-San Remo weather report: How will the wind impact Tadej Pogačar's hopes for an aggressive race?

This year's spring equinox falls on the day before Saturday's Milan-San Remo, with forecasts predicting a spring-like day for the races.

A lack of a tailwind will perhaps dent Tadej Pogačar's hopes of another Cipressa attack, while helping Lorena Wiebes control her rivals so she can again win on the Via Roma.

Riders, teams and race fans have been monitoring the weather for Milan-San Remo in the last few days, with late route recons in shorts and gilets confirming the spring-like weather.

Milan-San Remo is occasionally raced in winter conditions of cold and rain, and nobody can ever forget the 2013 race when Gerald Ciolek beat Peter Sagan and Fabian Cancellara in a snow-covered, shortened race, with riders bused over the Turchino to avoid the heavy snow.

This year's race should be dry and with virtually no wind.

There was a northeasterly wind on Wednesday, but that faded on Thursday, with only light breezes off the Mediterranean expected for Saturday afternoon. It could be cloudy and so not so warm on race day, with a maximum of 14°C expected in San Remo on Saturday.

Even a risk of crosswinds on the exposed roads of Lombardy, soon after the riders roll out of Pavia, has faded as spring weather has taken hold this week.

Last year, both the men and women enjoyed a 20kph tailwind as they raced westwards along the Ligurian coastline.

That created fast races, with Pogačar combining the conditions with his natural aggression to attack on the Cipressa and drag Mathieu van der Poel and Filippo Ganna away.

There were similar attacks in Milan-San Remo Women, including from Elisa Longo Borghini (UAE Team ADQ) in the final two kilometres after the Poggio descent, but Wiebes was vigilant and won the sprint.

Pogačar and his UAE Team Emirates-XRG squad are expected to try to again create a selective race and spark an attack on the Cipressa. A headwind works against any Cipressa attackers, slowing their attack and favouring the bigger peloton, which can share the work on the front.

A tailwind like last year would have reduced the benefits of the chase group and so favoured Pogačar's preferred strategy on the gradual slopes of the 5.7km long 4% Cipressa.

The lack of wind balances out any advantage, ultimately favouring the peloton if they can keep Pogačar within range for a high-speed chase over the top of the Cipressa and along the Aurelia coast road.

With only a breeze blowing across the higher parts of the Poggio climb, it is more likely we will see a traditional Milan-San Remo scenario.

The likes of Longo Borghini are expected to try to attack on the Poggio in the women's race due to their lack of finishing speed, but Wiebes has the strength to digest the climb and a strong SD Worx team to keep the race together so she can target a second consecutive victory.

"I expect more or less the same scenario as in previous years. Last year, Tadej came very close," Mathieu van der Poel said when asked to predict how the men's race would unfold.

"What they did last year is, in my opinion, not something that is possible every year. We had the perfect wind on the Cipressa and also to get to the Poggio. If it's a headwind, I think it's a different story."

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