After stage 16 of the Giro d'Italia on Tuesday, you may have read some analysis or takes saying what a terrible day for UAE Team Emirates-XRG it had been. Isaac del Toro had held onto pink, but lost time, whilst Juan Ayuso massively suffered. Many rivals looked stronger than Del Toro, and some onlookers even said it was clear that the Mexican was not going to win this Giro.
Fast forward 24 hours, however, and Del Toro's performance on stage 17 showed that it's not quite as simple as that. Coming back to win in Bormio certainly hasn't proven that he's going to win the race, as he does keep showing points of weakness in the longer climbs. But he's definitely shown that anyone who wrote him off after stage 16 was wrong.
In fact, the variety of performances on show on Wednesday have demonstrated that this Giro d'Italia is still extremely tight, with only two mountain stages to go. We keep thinking it's over – Del Toro is cracking and it's done, or Richard Carapaz is riding away to victory and it's done - but the race keeps ojn showing that it is very much not over.
On stage 17, we learnt a great deal about the protagonists in the GC fight, but whilst we might know more about them now, that doesn't necessarily mean we know who's going to win. Del Toro called the top four the main contenders to win this Giro, all sitting within two minutes of the lead, and any one of them could still win, or still lose.
Let's start with Del Toro. He won his first Grand Tour stage, adding some time to his pink jersey lead, and showing that mentally, he is a fighter. He wasn't going to be cowed or scared by one somewhat bad day on Tuesday.
However, we also saw again that he really does have weaknesses in the long climbs and high mountains. UAE have the strongest mountain train in this race, by a fair margin, but when Del Toro's older, more experienced Grand Tour rivals kick aaway in the hard parts, he can't always follow.
So far, he's always been able to fight back to either get back on the group or at least save his pink jersey. But it's clear that, with three big climbs on stage 19 and the Colle delle Finestre on stage 20 still to come, the Mexican is vulnerable.
After launching what turned out to be the winning attack on stage 17, Richard Carapaz has moved up to second overall, and to many, he is now the favourite to win this Giro. It's easy to see why: the Ecuadorian rider excels in the long climbs, but also he has no hesitation to attack, with a signature stinging acceleration that no one except Del Toro has been able to follow so far.
However, Carapaz's attacking nature could also be his own vulnerability. It's not happened yet, but a big move can also be a big risk, and when he's brought back by more steady riders – as he was on the Mortirolo – he could find he's used energy too early. His aggressivity is great, but needs to be used carefully against the potentially more stifling tactics of UAE's mountain troops.
Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike) lost a spot on GC on stage 17, unable to follow the move from Carapaz and Del Toro in the finale, but is looking strong on the climbs. However, he is missing the punchy acceleration to follow riders like Carapaz and Del Toro, so if they can get a jump on him in the long climbs, he could be defeated in his preferred territory.
There's also a growing sense that the pressure and seriousness of his position is getting to Yates. He's never been much of a talker, but the Brit is increasingly swerving interviews and the like. This could be a good way of not letting anyone know what's going on in his head, including his rivals, or it could be a sign of some nervousness.
And finally there's Derek Gee. The Canadian dark horse has hardly put his nose in the wind this whole race, but could that be his key to success? Like Yates, Gee is a steadier climber, so it's not surprising that he didn't follow the attacks in the finale on Wednesday. But it also means he's looking better than at least Del Toro for the long, high climbs to come.
The Canadian knows full well that he doesn't have the team to support him that other favourites too. Howeve,r he's been racing with that in mind, saving energy and riding into form after a tough start to the race. He'll be hoping that he's conserved enough to really show his strength in the tough mountains, and his 1:57 deficit could absolutely turn into a podium finish or even race win.
What happens next?
So, what's the conclusion? Well, therein lies the problem – it's so hard to conclude anything from these first two mountain stages of the final week. The top four riders in this race are all so different, and so well-matched in many ways. All four have great strengths, and they all have weaknesses too, and the time to either profit off your strengths, or exploit another's weaknesses, is dwindling.
Stage 19 has the potential to be decisive, but so did stage 16, and stage 17, so it's very tricky to say when this race will finally reveal its winner. It looks increasingly likely that it could come down to stage 20 and the Colle delle Finestre, where there's really nowhere to hide, and very little that a good team or a stinging punch can actually do. Saturday will be an all-out fight to see who wins and who loses.
For some analysts, it might be frustrating to find a race so hard to predict, or to be proved wrong so quickly, but these delicate balances and fine balances are what make racing great, and why we could be in for a truly fascinating end to this Giro. No one can be written off, and no winner can be declared until Rome
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