Who will win the 2025 Vuelta a España? Analysing the favourites for the red jersey

The final Grand Tour of the season arrives on Saturday August 23 with the Vuelta a España and that also means the long road from Turin to Madrid offers a last chance in 2025 to claim the revered place of a champion of one of the prestigious three-week races.

The battle will play out on the tricky and brutal Spanish climbs, with the iconic Angliru as the showpiece in a race which will bring some of the very best climbers in the world to the fore.

There will be no title defence and outright win-record chase from Vuelta stalwart Primož Roglič, as there has been for the past six seasons, and Tadej Pogačar, too, won't be returning to where he made his Grand Tour debut. However, several of the world's best will take to the start, this year is in Italy, in pursuit of the maillot rojo. A third UAE Team Emirates-XRG versus Visma-Lease a Bike general classification duel is expected to unfold after they traded spoils at the Giro d'Italia and Tour de France.

Jonas Vingegaard will lead the latter as the main favourite, but he'll have the duo of João Almeida and Juan Ayuso to contend with in the biggest mountain tests, alongside a whole host of other top climbers.

With racing in four countries, a team time trial, five big mountain days, likely scorching temperatures and several typical stinging Vuelta-style finishes among the tests to contend with, it's a more than worthy closer to the Grand Tour action for this season.

We've taken a closer look at the big favourites set to light up the roads in August and September, with top climbers and young stars hoping for a GC breakthrough among the list.

Here's Cyclingnews' assessment of who is in the running to win the 80th Vuelta a España.

Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Jonas Vingegaard will start the Vuelta a España as the main favourite for the red jersey, looking to improve on his second-place finish at the Tour de France and take his first Grand Tour victory in two years.

With no Tadej Pogačar on the start line, Vingegaard is the strongest climber on paper and will be flanked by a powerful Visma-Lease a Bike team at his second three-week race appearance in 2025.

It's set to be his third appearance at the Vuelta, after his Grand Tour debut in 2020 and then another run at the 2023 edition, when he finished as runner-up to teammate Sepp Kuss, with Jumbo-Visma locking out the podium that season.

Vingegaard's form is unknown, having only trained in the time after the Tour with no preparation racing, but two years ago he proved that producing two top-level Grand Tour performances in the same season was something he was capable of.

The Dane is still far and away the second-best climber in the world, with the gap to the rest still quite large based on what we saw at the Tour, so the eyes will all be on Vingegaard given his key rival from July is not on the radar.

João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

At just 27 years old, João Almeida is the veteran of UAE Team Emirates-XRG's one-two GC punch at the Vuelta alongside Juan Ayuso. The same tandem was employed twice before at the Vuelta, with Ayuso third and Almeida fourth in 2022 then both finishing in the top 10 in 2023.

Almeida returns to the Vuelta for a fourth time and pursues yet another opportunity to add a Grand Tour overall win to his resume. Back in 2020, Almeida wore the pink leader's jersey at the Giro d'Italia for over two weeks as a neo-pro. Last year his Vuelta hopes were extinguished after eight days when he withdrew because of a COVID-19 infection.

This year could be his year, as the Portuguese rider has a trio of GC victories at stage races - Tour de Suisse (including three stage wins), Tour de Romandie and Itzulia Basque Country. Though he suffered a fractured rib and numerous abrasions in a high-speed crash on stage 7 at the Tour de France and withdrew on stage 9, so now he's got an eye on red at the Vuelta.

"The recovery from the Tour crash has been smooth and my sensations in training have been improving. We have a strong group around us, and I believe we can fight for something big," Almeida said at the end of July looking to rebound, and that 'something big' being his first Grand Tour overall victory.

Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Juan Ayuso arrives at his home Grand Tour for a second three-week hit out in 2025, having already led UAE into the Giro, before being forced to abandon due to a lingering knee injury and a bee sting.

That makes it two DNFs in a row at cycling's most prestigious stage races – the previous one coming at the 2024 Tour de France – but the Vuelta has only ever been a site of success for the young Spanish rider. He had a podium finish in 2022 and fourth place finish the year after, suggesting that home advantage has helped Ayuso thrive.

Having achieved those results at 19 and 20, Ayuso has had time to develop into his career as a GC racer and potentially build up his strength to finish higher than third. Though he hasn't yet managed to live up to the expectations, albeit he's still only 22 and this Vuelta is a big opportunity to show he can challenge the likes of Vingegaard for overall victory.

He fell down the pecking order at the Giro before his abandon, as Isaac del Toro rose, and again he'll have Almeida to contend with internally for leadership and the chance to try and topple the favourite of Vingegaard.

Ben O'Connor (Jayco AlUla)

With Primož Roglič and Enric Mas both absent from the Vuelta this year, the only podium finisher from 2024 returning for 2025 will be Ben O'Connor, who finished second last year after a long stint in red, only overturned by Roglič in the final days.

Despite the initial disappointment after losing the lead so late on, O'Connor held on for second, marking his best-ever Grand Tour performance and further cementing his status as a serious GC rider. This year, he started the Tour de France with his new team Jayco AlUla to target GC again, but had to abandon that after an early crash, and instead won a stage in the final week, finishing 11th overall.

Even if his GC campaign didn't go to plan in France, his performance in the mountains and his victory atop the Col de la Loze proved his climbing level is high this year, and with such a demanding volume of climbing at this year's Vuelta – and fewer in-between stages on which to come undone – the Spanish Grand Tour could suit him even better.

He'll also find himself with arguably better support this August than last year, with proven climbers Chris Harper and Eddie Dunbar lining up alongside him in what is probably one of Jayco's strongest GC line-ups for a while. They're not taking a top-tier sprinter, so it should be all in on O'Connor.

Runner-up last year, it could be argued that anything but a win would be a disappointment for O'Connor, but really, to finish on the podium again alongside a rider like Vingegaard or Almeida would be a success, and certainly a realistic ambition for the 29-year-old.

Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek)

Giulio Ciccone is heading into the Vuelta a España in flying form while racing in Spain, as he is fresh off the back of a stage win at the Vuelta a Burgos and victory in the Clásica San Sebastián.

The Italian is another rider who was hoping the Giro d'Italia would be the highlight of his season, but a crash and abandon mean that this Vuelta arrives as a chance for GC racing redemption.

His Grand Tour performances haven't been the best over the years, with still no top 10 on GC to show for all his hard work, but he's more than shown the climbing ability required to get himself into the upper echelons of the leaderboard.

Ciccone will need to finish the Vuelta for the first time in his career to net a top result, too, but if he makes it to Madrid, the Abruzzese will have surely left his mark on the race.

With no Roglič or Pogačar on the start line, he becomes one of the big favourites to pick up bonus seconds in the plethora of uphill sprint finishes the Vuelta presents, which could prove the route to the best GC finish of his career at a Grand Tour.

Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech)

Making a debut at the Vuelta a España is Canadian Derek Gee, and he's on course to make an immediate impact in the GC. The 28-year-old Israel-Premier Tech rider had a breakthrough Grand Tour at this year's Giro, where he had a string of consistent top 10 rides in the final week in the mountains to climb to fourth overall.

"If you’d told me two years ago, when the team first started developing me and believing in me as a GC rider, that I’d finish top-5 in my favorite race - the one I’ve adored since I was a little kid growing up in Ottawa - I would’ve had a hard time believing it was possible,” Gee said in a team press release.

He only has three Grand Tours under his belt in his fifth season as a pro, with two dazzling performances at the Giro. The first year he raced in Italy in 2023, he scored second-placed stage finishes four times, but was well down in the GC in 22nd. At the Tour de France the next year he impressed with ninth overall.

The Vuelta this season will mark Gee's return to stage racing, now with the maple leaf jersey on his back after he won his first road race national title. It will be the first time he's had two Grand Tours on his schedule in one calendar year.

Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers)

While Egan Bernal arrives at this Vuelta as a former winner of both the Tour de France and Giro d'Italia, completing the triple is likely not something overly on his mind, given his build-up back to peak shape ever since his horror crash in 2022.

The most recent Giro d'Italia showed flashes of the Colombian's former best in Grand Tour racing, with three stage top 10 finishes and a seventh overall placing on GC to boot.

Not only did Bernal race to win, but he raced aggressively, as Ineos Grenadiers have tried to do all season. More of the same at the Vuelta could be vital in securing time to push Bernal up the rankings, as he challenges the stars of Visma and UAE.

Recent racing at the Vuelta a Burgos suggested Bernal was on the rise after his return to competition following the Giro, managing sixth overall after the five days of racing. It will become apparent, though, how having a full Giro in his legs works for Bernal as the Vuelta goes through its toughest stages. He's not one to count out, however.

Jai Hindley (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

As the buzz subsides, for a while, about Remco Evenepoel moving to Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe in 2026, when he will be a co-leader for Grand Tours with Primož Roglič, the team may be riding a little under the radar with Jai Hindley as their top man for the overall at the Vuelta a España.

Hindley takes the reins for the Red Bull squad in Spain since Roglič, the most recent Vuelta winner and a four-time champion, is absent. Known for his climbing, the Australian will need to have his A-game to perform well with the 10 mountaintop stages upcoming at this year's Vuelta.

He established himself in 2022 by winning the overall at the Giro d'Italia, and then followed with ninth at the Vuelta and seventh overall at the 2023 Tour de France. However, his last two Grand Tours, in France and Italy, have not followed with much success. His 2025 Giro ended after a stage 6 crash on wet roads that left him with a concussion and fractured vertebrae on his lower back.

Hindley has recovered and returned to action with a 25th overall finish in Vuelta a Burgos the first week of August. Prior to his Giro crash, he had solid top 10s at Tirreno-Adriatico, Tour of the Alps and Volta Valenciana, and his team is set up to support his GC effort.

"Jai is our leader, but with a balanced team we can be protagonists on several stages and aim to take some wins. While it’s not easy to pinpoint an exact expectation for Jai at the moment, he is a Grand Tour winner, a solid rider, and he has already shown that he has the legs to win a three-week race," said Sports Director Patxi Vila in a team statement about the Vuelta lineup.

Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious)

Antonio Tiberi will ride his fourth Vuelta a España in a row in 2025, looking to bounce back after his DNF from last year's edition, which came as a result of heat-stroke. Up until the Italian pulled out on stage 9, he had been in the top four on GC. Tiberi was on course for a solid year of Grand Tour results, having finished fifth in the Giro two months prior, but his fortunes this season have been different.

His home Grand Tour ended with a disappointing 17th place overall, but the time he lost came after a heavy crash on stage 14. Before that he had been among the podium places, two seconds ahead of eventual winner Simon Yates.

Tiberi has proved his Grand Tour capabilities in recent seasons, and at 24, he's still got ample time to improve and the Vuelta is a good opportunity to do just that.

Of course the heat could prove a factor again, but he'll have the experience from last year to help him, and with a team time trial and individual race against the clock on the route, Tiberi has a clear area of advantage over some of his competitors.

Mikel Landa (Soudal-QuickStep)

With good health his top priority of late, Mikel Landa could redeem a lackluster season at the Vuelta a España as the team leader. He has twice finished third overall at the Giro d'Italia and twice fourth overall at the Tour de France, but it has been three years since his last Grand Tour podium. The 35-year-old Basque climber would like nothing better than to add a top GC performance at his home race, where he has finished in the top 10 the last two years.

While Landa's legs have rarely been in question with mountainous terrain, it is now recovery from a back injury which may hinder his efforts at this year's Vuelta. Landa crashed on a descent with 5km to go in the opening stage of the Giro, fracturing a T11 vertebrae which required an extended time of rest. He returned to action three months later and finished in the top 20 at the five-day Vuelta a Burgos.

Landa comes into the Vuelta with new energy from his recovery, success at Burgos and security of a one-year contract extension with Soudal-QuickStep to keep him on the team through 2026.

While he told Spanish media outlet AS in early August that he would be satisfied to just be at the start of the Vuelta and "get into a rhythm", 'Landismo' could work his way through the early Italian stages and try something special for home fans in a route suited to his climbing prowess with 10 summit finishes.

Best of the rest

Naturally, when a team brings a squad as strong as Visma-Lease a Bike's to a Grand Tour, there will be GC options away from their primary focus. Matteo Jorgenson & former Vuelta winner Sepp Kuss (Visma-Lease a Bike) stand out at the Dutch team, and should be ready to step up should Vingegaard falter.

Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) probably deserves a spot on the main list, based on his most recent race result is finishing fifth overall at the Tour de France, but his form is unknown and he hasn't proved yet in his career that a second Grand Tour in the same season will bring repeated performances.

Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) could well end up being Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe's GC leader at the Vuelta, but Hindley's history as a former Grand Tour winner likely puts the Italian below him in the pecking order. He's only improved since joining the German team, though, and could back up his sixth from the 2025 Giro with another top finish in Spain.

Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) continues to push for GC at his second Grand Tour of the season. He too raced the Giro and finished 16th overall but still hasn't proved to be a top 10 overall contender, which puts him into the best of the rest. Recent performances in Norway suggest he is in flying form, though, so this Vuelta could bring his breakthrough GC ride.

Another former Grand Tour winner on the start list is Tao Geoghegan Hart (Lidl-Trek), with the Brit set to race his second Vuelta in a row. He's been building up his form ever since suffering serious leg injuries at the 2023 Giro, and hasn't yet returned to his previous best but there have been flashes.

Max Poole (Picnic PostNL) will be looking to follow the example of compatriot Oscar Onley, who finished a brilliant fourth at the Tour de France. Poole pulled out of his last race in Poland, so his form is unknown, but he did finish 11th at his last Grand Tour in May, back at the Giro, so could back that up or even better it at the coming Vuelta.

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