Nothing is ever completely new in sport, and while Jonas Vingegaard is currently more than living up to his pre-race status of overwhelming favourite in the Giro d'Italia, his tactics in doing so have echoes of the strategies of 1980s stage racing contenders, argues former Grand Tour participant turned directeur spotif turned race commentator Brian Holm.
A former pro and directeur sportif and now a commentator with Eurosport, Holm himself raced his first-ever Grand Tour, of 10 in total, at the 1987 Giro d'Italia. And now, 40 years on, Holm tells Cyclingnews that, in some ways strategy-wise, Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike are turning back the clock.
Coming into the first rest day, Vingegaard has already won the two toughest summit finishes in the first week of the Giro d'Italia and, while he lies 2:24 down on maglia rosa Afonso Eulálio (Bahrain Victorious), he is widely expected to wrest the lead from the Portuguese racer in tomorrow's time trial in Tuscany.
"He belongs in the mountains, and that's where he rides the best. [Tadej] Pogačar, Remco Evenepoel, they attack on the flat, but Jonas - it's all about don't get too over-excited, just stay calm.
"They [his rivals] put the team to work on the flat and then they do the long breakaways, 50km off the front alone. There's no reason for him to do that. So I absolutely agree – he's riding very smart, very clever. People don't like it, but it's about winning, isn't it?"
'You don't have to win it by 15 minutes. For me, it's better if he can win it by two or three'
Of the main GC favourites, Vingegaard's closest rival, Felix Gall (Decathlon CGA CMM) is 35 seconds down, but is expected to lose a lot of time in the TT, whilst former Giro d'Italia winner Jai Hindley (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) is in third, 2:08 adrift. Whilst not a major goal, Vingegaard's current lead in the mountains classification also underlines how strongly he is performing overall.
However, Holm points out that the calculated, measured approach is what will likely net the Dane the overall victory without burning himself out excessively, and that, given his objectives in July, that is hardly a bad strategy.
"I thought maybe he would take a bit more time on Gall on the Blockhaus" – his margin was just 13 seconds – "but on the other hand, you know, when you have to do the Tour de France afterwards, I always said it's good that the gaps are close as they can be whilst still fighting for victory, because that way he's using less energy."
"You don't have to win it by 15 minutes. For me, it's better if he can win it by two or three."
Vingegaard's strategy of keeping away from the front is not without risks, Holm argues, as that meant in the early days that the team car was well back in the race director's convoy. However, he's come through those potential sticking points without any problems, and he is now reaping the benefits.
"Which day was it, stage 1 or stage 2, when they stayed at the back of the bunch, saving energy. And saving energy physically means saving energy in your head, too," Holm said.
"I did not like that too much because when you do it and the day after you team is car number 21, it's a bit odd for a GC rider. Say the roads had got narrow suddenly on a stage, you could have found yourself fighting for something you already should have.
"When somebody really hasn't done that before or at least, not for a very long time, there's probably a very good reason why.
"But they're trying something new in modern cycling, and I like that, and of course, overall, the important thing is he's unbelievably strong."
Not everything is going Vingegaard's way, though, as he has lost Wilco Kelderman, a former Giro podium finisher and excellent climbing support rider, to injury. But whilst Holm thinks he will be missed, he also believes that others will step up when they can.
"Of course, he will miss him, no doubt, he's a fantastic rider, and very experienced, so that's a big loss. But we know also from cycling, if you lose somebody, most times others will step up, just look at [teammate Davide] Piganzoli on the Blockhaus and on Sunday's summit finish too, and how amazingly he rode. So it's painful for the team, but I think they'll survive."
As for Tuesday's time trial, Vingegaard won't have any team support, of course, but Holm believes that there won't be too much chance of the Danish star suffering a setback.
"He should show then that the race is going to be for him, I think," Holm said.
"If he didn't beat Gall or Hindley, then it'd be good for the race, it'd get much more exciting. But logically, he should gain several minutes on them, even if on the Blockhaus, I thought he'd win by more than 15 seconds.
"So there's still a bit of a discussion going on about his strategies and thinking around his tactics and it's easy to say from sitting on the sofa, but like everybody else, I think he's going to win the Giro d'Italia."
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