Whether he intends to or not, Tadej Pogačar is a man who breaks records. His dominant win rate in all kinds of races, from Grand Tours to Monuments, has placed him not only on several pages of the metaphorical history books, but well within the conversation of being the most successful male rider of all time.
He's the first rider to win a Monument five times in a row, the first man to stand on the podium of all five Monuments in the same season, and the first to podium in the sport's 10 most important stage races. This year, he is within touching distant of matching the record of Tour de France GC victories, should he win his fifth and join the small, legendary group of five-time winners.
And on Monday, he took himself one place closer to one of the sport's most talked-about records, the Tour de France stage wins tally. Winning his 22nd Tour stage atop the climb to Les Angles on stage 3, he now ranks joint fifth in the list of most prolific stage winners, joint with Andre Darrigade and behind only André Leducq, Bernard Hinault, Eddy Merckx and Mark Cavendish.
The current record belongs to Mark Cavendish, with 35 stage wins, which he set in 2024, finally beating Eddy Merckx's record of 34, which Cavendish had matched in 2021. Prior to 2024, Merckx had held the record since 1975, so for nearly 40 years.
Could Pogačar beat the record again, just a few years after Cavendish lifted it by one? As of Monday, he has 22 stages to his name, 13 off Cavendish's tally and 14 off an outright record.
Now, 14 might sound like a way to go, but if you look at his win rate so far, the stages per race he'd have to win now to reach 35 or 36 all-time wins, and indeed the number of Tours he's likely to race in the future, the record becomes much closer – and clearly very achievable.
Current win rate
As of 2025, Pogačar had won 21 stages in six editions of the Tour, giving him an average win rate of 3.5 per edition. Only in one edition has he won fewer than three stages, the fateful 'I'm gone, I'm dead' year of 2023. Most frequently he's won three stages, in 2024 he won six, and in 2025 he won four. So it's not crazy to suggest that he could go on winning at least three per year.
How does that compare to the men he is up against in the history books? Fairly favourably, actually. It's the same stage win per year average as Bernard Hinault (third in the rankings of most stage wins, with 28) and well above André Leducq and André Darrigade, the men he's set to leapfrog quite quickly in the standings.
Crucially, 3.5 wins per edition is also a solid one win per edition more than the current outright record holder Mark Cavendish, who won 36 stages, but took 15 editions to do it. Pogačar is much more efficient.
Merckx has the highest win rate, achieving his 34 wins in just seven editions, but that does come with the slight caveat (other than the usual 'it was a different time') that the Tours of Merckx's era often had more than 21 stages, because they would feature a prologue plus split days with a stage A and B, but for the purposes of records each is counted as a win. In 1974, for example, there were 27 stage wins up for grabs, compared to a strict 21 these days.
So what does this win rate mean for the future? If he carries on at an average of 3.5 wins per year, then Pogačar will finish the 2029 Tour with 35 wins, matching Cavendish's current record. One more Tour, or one more win here or there, and he could certainly beat it before he turns 32.
But, if recent history is anything to go by, Pogačar these days is capable of winning much more than three stages per year. If he wins four this year and in the next editions, he'd reach 33 in 2028 and break the record in 2029. Make it five or six per year, which he achieved in both the Giro d'Italia and the Tour in 2024, and he'll have the record in the bag in 2028.
The main question, of course, is how many stages Pogačar will win, but there's also a question of how long he will go on for. His current contract runs until 2030, and despite his occasional grumble about maybe stopping earlier, perhaps after the 2028 Olympics or the potential Slovenian Grand Départ in 2029, he and the team have said he will honour that contract.
Another way to compare Pogačar's current statistics to the record holders he is up against is to look at age, and the graph below shows how many Tour stage wins each rider had achieved when they turned 28 (that's the age Pogačar will turn later this summer, so his number of wins will almost certainly be higher once his birthday actually arrives). So by this metric, again, Pogačar is doing pretty well, he's on track with the riders he is competing against.
However, this is perhaps actually the least useful metric to look at, because whilst Pogačar started winning younger, as we said his career is also likely to be shorter. Cavendish rode his last Tour at 39, for example – Pogačar will only be 31 in July 2030. Merckx is perhaps the most similar comparison: he won his first stage at 24, his last at 30, and rode his last Tour at 32.
Does he care?
Numbers, statistics and projections aside, there is another factor that is much less possible to plot on a graph: motivation.
So far, the Slovenian has not been a man who – outwardly at least – is particularly obsessed or driven by records. For Mark Cavendish, it was a constant question, and very clear at a certain point that 34, and then 35, was pretty much his central motivation for racing as long as he did, feeling within reach of that record.
Now, Pogačar is obviously still much further off the record, it's not as urgently close as it became for Cavendish, but is it on his mind at all? Even on Monday, he seemed to try to dispel the idea that he is obsessed with wins.
"That's still quite far away," Pogačar said when asked about Cavendish's record. "Maybe today was my last victory ever, so I prefer to stay in the moment, enjoy this victory. Every victory feels very special, and if we can have more moments like yesterday, I'll also be grateful.
"So far my career is already beyond my wildest imagination, so yeah, I don't want to think about Mark's record. Just go with the flow and see what we can do in the future, but yeah, if today is my last victory, I'm happy enough."
Pogačar finished second on stage 2, helping Del Toro to win instead of himself (Image credit: Getty Images)
'Giving away' the stage win on stage 2 potentially confirms that narrative, as surely a man obsessed with a win tally would grab every victory he could, not hand some off to teammates. But there could also be a sense of security with Pogačar: he knows he can give away a win here and there, because his win rate will be high enough as it is.
Personally, I don't think it's an obsession or a driving force just yet, but the more records Pogačar ticks off, like if he reaches yellow jersey number five or six, the chance to become the stage win record holder too will become more and more tantalising. It just depends if he can get close enough before he wants to hang up his wheels all together.
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Matilda is an NCTJ-qualified journalist based in the UK who joined Cyclingnews in March 2025. Prior to that, she worked as the Racing News Editor at GCN, and extensively as a freelancer contributing to Cyclingnews, Cycling Weekly, Velo, Rouleur, Escape Collective, Red Bull and more. She has reported on the ground at all of the biggest events on the calendar, including the men's and women's Tours de France, the Giro d'Italia, the Vuelta a Espana, the Spring Classics and the World Championships. She has particular experience and expertise in women's cycling, and women's sport in general. She is a graduate of modern languages and sports journalism.
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