The 2026 Giro d’Italia is entering a crucial period in the contest for the maglia rosa, with a trip through the Valle d’Aosta region this weekend followed by a typically difficult final week.
With the general classification still tight towards the top, Vincenzo Nibali, the last Italian to win the Giro, believes that Visma-Lease a Bike’s Jonas Vingegaard is all but certain to top the pile by the conclusion of the race.
“It would be a huge surprise not to see him in pink in Rome. I really like him as a rider. But now is when the really decisive days begin; history is yet to be written,” Nibali told La Gazzetta Dello Sport.
The Dane currently sits in second place, 33 seconds behind Afonso Eulalio (Bahrain Victorious), who is expected to lose time over the coming stages after seizing the pink jersey from the breakaway on stage 5.
Vingegaard has a healthy, but not insurmountable, lead over the other GC contenders, with Thymen Arensman (Netcompany Ineos) sitting in 1:30 behind the two-time Tour de France winner in third.
With Vingegaard scheduled to take on Tadej Pogačar at the Tour de France five weeks after the Giro’s conclusion, there has been talk around the paddock in Italy that the 29-year-old has been holding back and saving matches for the Tour.
Nibali, who won the Giro d’Italia in 2013 and 2016 alongside the 2014 Tour de France, would like to see Vingegaard delve deeper into his resources and unleash a statement-making attack to stamp his authority on the race.
“I'd like him to pull off a feat like [Pogačar] before the end of the Giro, to put on a great, long show one day. I know he's also eagerly awaiting the Tour and the challenge with Pogačar, so it's likely that in the rest of the race, here, his condition will improve a bit,” Nibali said.
"Yes, he can think about gaining a little each day and still winning. It would be understandable. But I hope for something else."
Vingegaard has won two stages of the Giro so far, both summit finishes to Blockhaus and Corno alle Scale on stages 7 and 9. He had a more difficult day on stage 10, a 42km time-trial from Viareggio to Massa, losing more than a minute to Arensmen.
“I knew it wouldn't be easy for him,” Nibali commented on the time-trial. “And the reason is easy to find: we're talking about a time-trial of over 40km, almost 50 minutes of effort.
"A race half that long would have been much, much easier to manage."
Nibali also opined on Vingegaard’s closest challengers, believing that Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM) could be the best of the rest come Rome, saying: “His ground is coming. On the climbs, so far, he's only lost to Vingegaard. He has a strong team and a great opportunity.”
Italy is waiting for its next true Giro d’Italia contender. While it looked possible that Giulio Pellizzari could come close this year, the Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe rider has struggled since attempting to follow Vingegaard on Blockhaus before struggling with illness.
Now sitting ninth overall and back to good health, Nibali would like to see the 22-year-old test himself in the second half of the race.
“He has nothing to lose. He's currently ninth in the standings, but would a finish like that or slightly higher make such a difference for him, given that he already finished sixth last year? I don't think so. If he's fit enough, I'd advise him to try and put in some performances.”
“It all depends on Giulio, on how he feels. I'd really like him to make a significant impact. I'd like him to fully understand what he can achieve in this Giro.”
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