Ineos with leadership issues, Seixas and Del Toro with ground to make up – GC analysis ahead of mountain triple-header in Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes

Team time trials are not everyone’s cup of tea, but the triple T on stage 3 of the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes has left this race, formerly known as the Dauphiné, poised rather nicely indeed as we head into the mountains.

After three breakaways, one sprint, and one TTT, the eight-stage race takes a big shift in focus, with three successive summit finishes to light up the battle for the yellow jersey and, atop the Plateau de Solaison on Sunday, decide it.

What sets the scene so well is that the favourites for that yellow jersey have ground to make up and work to do. Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM), the 19-year-old prodigy who is in the spotlight ahead of his Tour de France debut, finds himself a minute down on the overall lead, or 48 seconds down if we take the Netcompany-Ineos duo of Kévin Vauquelin and Oscar Onley as the virtual leaders, given Alex Baudin is likely to drop away in the mountains.

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Seixas was the pre-race favourite in the eyes of many, but not far behind was the fellow young sensation Isac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), who has even more ground to make up, sitting a further 16 seconds down on Seixas.

That means the two pre-race favourites and the two most exciting climbers in the race need to get on the front foot and grab that time back off several very strong competitors. They need little invitation in normal circumstances, in all fairness, but you can put aggression and fireworks on the weekend menu.

The top 15

Netcompany-Ineos' options and issues

Despite Baudin's presence in yellow, Netcompany-Ineos realistically sit at the top of the GC standings among overall contenders, in second and third following the team time trial. But that TTT did not go swimmingly at all, and in turn has sparked talk of tension in the camp and question marks over leadership.

Onley dropped his chain in the TTT, and the call came from the team car to wait, which seemed to frustrate Vauquelin, who later even publicly questioned the wisdom of that call. Had the team not waited, he'd almost certainly be in yellow already with an even bigger margin over his rivals. However, Onley would have been cut adrift and would be behind most of those rivals.

The decision from the team car makes perfect sense, even if Vauquelin and certain sections of the French media weren't impressed. Onley is more of a pure climber than the punchier Vauquelin, so in theory, he stands a better chance in the mountains. What's more, keeping the number game more alive is also a sensible tactic when you have stronger individuals lining up against you.

The real issue is communication and optics. We in the media will never complain about rider honesty, but from the team's point of view, it's never a great look for a rider to question decisions publicly. Likewise, was it really necessary for Director of Racing Geraint Thomas to say "Kévin is not in top shape yet" in a post-TTT press release?

Thomas rightly pointed out that tensions can be ironed out and difficult conversations are often the most productive. But this risks becoming a theme. At Paris-Nice, it was striking how Vauquelin was left to fend for himself in the crosswind stage, before storming back and overtaking Onley, who abandoned the next day.

In light of all that, it will be fascinating to see how Vauquelin and Onley combine over the next three days. It's also interesting that Thomas was talking about having "two GC cards", and not three, despite Carlos Rodríguez also being in the top 10. The Spaniard, fourth overall at the 2023 Tour de France, was meant to be a key part of a leadership trio, but those comments are a sign of how far he has slipped in the past 18 months, raising doubts over his prospects and role at the Tour.

Seixas and Del Toro

Back to Seixas and Del Toro, who, despite their time losses, would still appear to be the two favourites. They both have a considerable amount of time to recoup, but have both shown that when they're at their best they operate on a level above the rest of the riders in this race.

That's true especially of Seixas, who has had an extraordinary breakthrough year that has made him a genuine challenger to Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France. In contrast to his meteoric momentum so far this year, though, the Frenchman has not had the smoothest of Dauphinés. He lost his best climbing domestique, Matthew Riccitello, to illness on the eve of the race, and he lost 12 seconds to the Ineos duo and others on the opening day. The time loss wasn't make-or-break in itself, but there was confusion as his team went from controlling all day to suddenly backing off on the final climb and allowing that more tactical scenario to emerge.

The TTT was complicated: Decathlon started one man down and then lost their best time triallist, Stefan Bissegger, to an off-day, early in the effort. Daan Hoole could be seen telling Seixas to cool off, and quotes from team directors point to the biggest challenge being keeping their leader level-headed. Seixas has the talent to run away with this race, but you also sense the potential for a costly mistake - at 19, that's only normal.

Del Toro, meanwhile, had an even more disappointing team time trial, though it didn't matter so much, as the squad here is not a dress rehearsal for the Tour like Decathlon's and others' are.

Del Toro will support Pogačar next month, but has a chance to win a third WorldTour race this season after the UAE Tour and Tirreno-Adriatico. He had already been buried by Seixas at Itzulia Basque Country before he crashed out and had to recover from injury, so he comes into this contest on the back foot in more ways than one.

The inbetweeners

Matteo Jorgenson sits fourth on GC, just 15 seconds down on Baudin and three seconds behind the Netcompany-Ineos duo, after Visma-Lease a Bike’s victory in the TTT.

The US rider is making his first appearance since breaking his collarbone at Amstel Gold Race and missing the Ardennes Classics. His plans shifted, with an earlier visit to altitude at Sierra Nevada, so the Tour de Suisse was swapped for the Dauphiné, where he has made a strong start but not without question marks. Jorgenson himself has looked powerful and hungry – his bitterness at losing 12 seconds to a couple of rivals on the opening day was a good sign there – while his team have won the TTT and controlled well elsewhere.

It remains to be seen whether Jorgenson has the climbing legs to get on the podium here, but in any case, after his injury layoff, he looks well on track for the Tour de France, where he’ll play a key role once again for Jonas Vingegaard.

Just behind Jorgenson sits another duo, this time from Lidl-Trek, with Juan Ayuso and Mattias Skjelmose both 47 seconds down on the lead of the race. Again, there has been talk of tension here, even if Ayuso has dismissed such talk as “ridiculous”. There were various comments over leadership traded in the media between the pair ahead of Ayuso’s arrival at the team over the winter, and they had only shared three race days on the road, so it does remain to be seen how they combine out there.

Skjelmose has top 10s at Catalunya and the Itzulia Basque Country to his name this season, while Ayuso had a complicated Spring due to crashes. However, the Spaniard did have a bright start to life at Lidl-Trek, beating Paul Seixas to win the Volta ao Algarve, and when he’s on song, he can reach places Skjelmose can’t.

Consistency in these final three days is so important for Ayuso, whose chances of being counted among those podium contenders for the Tour de France will become much clearer.

The road ahead

The trio of mountain stages sees the difficulty ratchet up each day, revealing more and more as we go on.

Friday's stage is the most straightforward, essentially coming down to the back-to-back climbs leading to Crest-Voland. The first is 11.5km at 5.1% while the second, which comes after a short, sharp descent, is harder at 5.9km and 7.5%. Still, it's the sort of stage where any separation is only likely to come very close to the finish.

Things intensify on Saturday as stage 7 goes saw-toothed for the opening 50km, then takes on twin ascents of the Grand Colombier, first up the hair-pinned side, then back around for the harder climb as the summit finish, measuring 8.4km at 10.2%. There's also a category-2 climb in between, so this summit finish should really see things kick off.

But that's nothing compared to the final day, which is a faintly ridiculous stage measuring 120km and featuring four major mountain ascents. The route climbs the Col du Pré (6.9km at 10.1%) from kilometre zero, before taking on the Montée de Bisanne (11.4km at 7.7%), the Col des Aravis (7km at 6.8%), and finally the Plateau de Solaison (11.3km at 9.1%). It's a brutal final climb after such an explosive and difficult stage, and it'll also feature in the upcoming Tour de France, underlining the Dauphiné's – sorry, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes' – status as a crucial waypoint for the big one.

The other names

Ones to watch

Alex Baudin (1st) – We haven’t discussed him much but the Frenchman snuck into the top 10 at Paris-Nice and Catalunya, and has sliding room here.

Jorgen Nordhagen (7th) – The Norwegian climber had a strong Tour de Romandie and could surprise a few while working for Jorgenson.

Léo Bisiaux (9th) – The young Frenchman is impressing and could become Seixas’ closest ally in the absence of Riccitello.

Luke Plapp (11th) – The Australian will be hanging rather than attacking in the big mountain stages but 3rd at UAE Tour and 5th at Romandie show that he can make the top 10.

Luke Tuckwell (12th) – Also impressive at Romandie (6th), the 21-year-old is still exploring his limits but could be a surprise top-10 package here after teammate Dani Martinez was dropped on the opening day.

Cian Uijtdebroeks (13th) – The Belgian still needs to prove himself at Movistar and the next few days will tell us whether he can deliver for his new team at the Tour de France.

Off the pace

Dani Martinez (26th) – Second place at Paris-Nice reignited the Colombian after a poor 2025 but he was off the pace at Romandie and off the pace on the opening day here. He could still push up the GC if that first day was just a shock to the system, but it doesn’t bode well.

Tobias Haaland Johanessen (35th) – Top 10 last year but dropped on the opening day here and well out of the GC running now.

João Almeida (141st) – The Portuguese star has emphatically answered the question about whether he be flipped into UAE’s Tour de France team after skipping the Giro. He’s 48 minutes down and barely making up the numbers.

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