Relegation Watch: Only a miracle can save Lotto Soudal, with Israel-Premier Tech definitely down

The battle for the 2023 UCI WorldTour spots is essentially over, even if the season continues this week with the Tour de Langkawi. Israel-Premier Tech will be relegated from cycling's top tier and, barring a miracle to end all miracles, so will Lotto Soudal. 

The three-year ranking, which will determine the 18 teams earning WorldTour licences for the next three-year cycle, is drawing to a close, and there's no real chance of any last-gasp drama.

The only races left are the eight-stage Tour de Langkawi, the Japan Cup (both ProSeries), and the 1.1-ranked events Chrono des Nations, Giro del Veneto and Veneto Classic. 

That means that, after the latest weekly UCI ranking update, there are not realistically enough points for either 19th placed Lotto Soudal or Israel-Premier Tech in 20th to move ahead of Arkéa-Samsic in 18th.

Sure, Lotto Soudal might be able to wipe out their 1,170-point deficit to Arkéa-Samsic if they swept the final podium in the Tour de Langkawi, won every stage, then swept the podium in the Japan Cup - but that's a highly unlikely scenario. 

In a realistic world, their fate is sealed, as their rider Thomas De Gendt admitted to Cyclingnews in Langkawi on Monday. 

Israel-Premier Tech's have been needing a miracle for some time, but after failing to make an impact in the past week, they are now mathematically certain to lose WorldTour status. Their only hope of salvation lies in the courts, with team owner Sylvan Adams threatening a legal suit against the UCI. 

The past week in detail

The past week's rankings include the Gran Piemonte and Paris-Tours (1.Pro), Il Lombardia (WorldTour Tier 3), and Memorial Van Steenbergen and Paris-Bourges (1.1).

It was, of course, UAE Team Emirates who came out on top with Tadej Pogačar's victory in Como, but second-placed Enric Mas continued Movistar's march away from the drop zone, having already steered his team to safety with his runner-up finish at the Vuelta a España. 

There was even a first win in two years for Iván García Cortina at Gran Piemonte last week, which propelled Movistar above Astana into 12th place, their troubles now seeming so far away.

Cofidis also clambered one more step up, thanks to Simone Consonni's fourth place in Paris-Tours, getting ahead of Team DSM and moving into 14th. With the Dutch outfit not taking part in Langkawi and Japan, EF Education-EasyPost - only 87 points behind - are poised to overtake Team DSM too. 

BikeExchange-Jayco, 187 points down, are racing both events in Veneto and could well knock Team DSM down to 17th but there is no way – except for a Lotto Soudal major miracle as described above – for any of these teams to fall into the relegation zone.

What's left to examine is why the UCI felt the need to impose a promotion/relegation system that is pushing two healthy, funded WorldTour teams into the second tier; how the UCI arrived at the points structure and how it might change for 2026, and how the strategies employed by teams to ensure their survival has impacted racing. Stay tuned to Cyclingnews in the off-season for further features on this topic.

Promotion odyssey and oddities

If the UCI's promotion/relegation system is designed to help well-backed and talent-stocked teams move into the WorldTour while poorly performing teams get kicked back to the ProTeam level, then it sort of works but it fails in many other ways.

Alpecin-Deceuninck, who built their points total largely on the back of superstar Mathieu van der Poel, in particular during 2020, have been assured of promotion ever since the team made the highly anticipated announcement they would apply for a WorldTour licence.

If any ProTeam deserves the honour, it's Alpecin-Deceuninck, who have been the top ProTeam each of the three years and have out-performed many WorldTeams. One might argue the automatic invitations to the Grand Tours gave them an advantage over Arkéa-Samsic who were still the next best ProTeam but much further behind in the three-year rankings.

While Alpecin-Deceuninck made the most of their streamlined calendar and gained far more points per day of racing thanks to Van der Poel, Jasper Philipsen, and Tim Merlier's high-profile victories, Arkéa-Samsic took a very different strategy.

The French team chose to skip the Giro d'Italia and instead, they hit the ProSeries and C1 races to hoover up points by stacking the top 10, with the riders in red frequently sprinting against each other for minor placings.

It wasn't pretty, but it worked - barely. With Nairo Quintana's still-to-be-contested disqualification from the Tour de France, the team dropped into 18th but held on for promotion. But is it well-deserved?

Alpecin-Deceuninck had Van der Poel in the maillot jaune at the Tour de France, in pink at the Giro d'Italia, winning stages and the Tour of Flanders - they had five different riders win Grand Tour stages this year alone.

Arkéa-Samsic have exactly three WorldTour victories in the entire three-year period. If the promotion/relegation system is supposed to measure teams' competitivity in the WorldTour, what about Lotto Soudal? They have 18 WorldTour wins between 2020 and 2022. Israel-Premier Tech have nine. Even TotalEnergies have more this year alone (four).

Speaking of TotalEnergies – they tried to buy talent to help their cause for promotion, but it was too little, too late. Niki Terpstra and Peter Sagan failed to fire and the team were never a threat. Neither too, were Uno-X. Both will have to aim for the 2026 WorldTour now.

Relegation heartbreak

Israel-Premier Tech and Lotto Soudal find themselves in the terrible situation of hoping for a late reprieve that doesn't seem likely to come from the UCI.

Lotto Soudal have lost their general manager, John Lelangue, who left to help run the Tour de Pologne. The off-season will likely see at least some riders exercise their options to end contracts early and seek employment from a WorldTeam.

However, Lotto Soudal are still far and away the best ProTeam of 2022 and will get guaranteed entry to the Tour de France, Giro d'Italia, Vuelta a España and all the major one-day races. It would be a shame to see a team dating back to the mid-1980s end like this.

Israel-Premier Tech's owner Sylvan Adams has invested heavily in the sport and his team, but in addition to being hit hard by the pandemic this year, they were in their first WorldTour season in 2020 and the growing pains cost them.

The team had a strong 2021 season but this year their spring campaign was ruined by COVID-19 and the team were forced to skip a week of racing. They also invested in Chris Froome, who has not regained his former Tour de France winning form.

However, the team were hit especially hard by the UCI Team Rankings being limited to 10 riders, and one wonders if they had raced more effectively inside the existing points structure if it would have made a difference.

Team rankings as of October 11

2022 Team Rankings