'If he tries that, it could end badly' – Belgian national coach not expecting another monster breakaway by Pogačar in European Championships battle with Remco Evenepoel

Belgian national coach Serge Pauwels has described the European Championships road race course in France as 'tougher than [the World Championships in] Kigali for sure' ahead of Remco Evenepoel's rematch with Tadej Pogačar (Slovenia).

Evenepoel completed a four-hour, 135km recon of the course on Thursday, a day after he dominated the time trial at the European Champs. Pauwels and a mechanic were following behind in the team car as their star rider checked out the key climbs that will decide Sunday's race. "Not the usual recovery ride" was how Evenepoel titled the effort on his Strava.

Sunday is set to be another attritional battle after Rwanda last week, on a shorter 202.5km course but with some equally brutal climbing.

While the historic event in Africa had a higher total of 5500m elevation gain, much of that was taken in across laps of the Côte de Kigali Golf (0.8km at 8.1%) and Côte de Kimihurura (1.3km at 6.2%), whereas the key to Sunday's race near Valence will be the tougher Val d'Enfer (1.6km at 9.7%).

That climb is due to be tackled four times in the final 60km, with three laps up the Saint Romain de Lerps (7km at 7.2%) already in the legs after the opening 135km of racing.

Pauwels expects very few riders to fight out the victory and a similar war of attrition to play out.

"I don't see more than ten riders in total who are in contention for the win," Serge Pauwels told Nieuwsblad after Thursday's recon.

"The Faun-Ardèche Classic runs on a similar course with the same climbs, and in recent years, you've seen names like Romain Gregoire and Juan Ayuso win.

"Those are also the names you can expect on Sunday, alongside Tadej Pogacar and Remco, of course, but also Jonas Vingegaard. In the Tour, you saw how Vingegaard and Pogacar always attacked on such climbs. This course suits their abilities perfectly.

"Kigali was especially gruelling but this is even more designed for climbers. For me, this is one of the toughest courses ever for an international championship, tougher than Kigali for sure.

"There you had Mount Kigali and the conditions, but in terms of elevation gain, this is much tougher. The race is only 200 kilometers long, and yet we face over 3,000 meters of elevation gain, almost all of which is in the last 150 kilometers."

While cautious of Pogačar – the pre-race favourite – and Vingegaard's talents, Pauwels is less afraid of another early 106km assault from the World Champion unfolding, as was the case in Rwanda. Rather he expects the Val d'Enfer laps to decide the winner.

"After the long climb, there's a significant intermediate section towards the Val d'Enfer. If he tries that, it could end badly," said Pauwels, when asked if he expects another outrageous long-range move from Pogačar.

"Besides, with the Val d'Enfer, there are plenty of opportunities in the final stages. But of course, Remco is far from without a chance. This race is incredibly similar to Liège-Bastogne-Liège, and that's by far the Classic that suits Remco best."

Evenepoel is hungry to add the iconic white and blue jersey to his collection, and it would complete his set of championship crowns, having won the Olympic double last year in Paris, both the World Championships road race (2022) and three consecutive time trials (2023-2025). He has also added a second European time trial title to his collection on Wednesday.

He's only raced the senior European road race once before, in 2021, and only narrowly missed out on victory in a two-up sprint against Sonny Colbrelli (Italy) in Trento. Given the two gold medals and silver medal he's claimed in the past two weeks, he looks to be at his absolute peak heading into Sunday, even with Pogačar and Vingegaard standing in his way.

"Remco is definitely in good shape, there's no doubt about that," said Pauwels to Het Laatste Nieuws, who also followed the recon. "He's peaked for this period, is in good form at the right time, and is super motivated. I feel he really wants to go for that championship title he's still missing."

Evenepoel's final preparations will likely include shorter rides today and on Saturday, as he looks to arrive at the start in Privas ready to take on the World Champion and defeat him. It seems clear we can expect the very best version of Evenepoel, and hopefully, without any bad luck, we'll get a better idea of whether his untimely mechanicals in Rwanda did prevent a worthy challenge to Pogačar emerging.