Yellow jersey trumps all other considerations for Tadej Pogacar and his team
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) on the attack in 2022 at Il Lombardia(Image credit: Getty Images Sport)
Heavy lies the crown. It’s completely unfair, of course, but Tadej Pogačar’s standing as the best and most complete cyclist in the world means that his rare vulnerabilities tend to stand out more than his almost routine shows of strength.
His 2022 season was, by most standards, a year for the ages, with his startling solo triumph at Strade Bianche, his casual dominance at Tirreno-Adriatico and his consummate victory at Il Lombardia leading the highlights reel. But, like Merckx before him, Pogačar has reached a point where his occasional defeats can seem more notable than his never-ending tour of victories.
Pogačar’s missteps in the finales of Milan-San Remo and the Tour of Flanders could be written off as the understandable errors of a rider still versing himself in the mysterious ways of those Monuments.
His defeat to Jonas Vingegaard and Jumbo-Visma’s collective might on more familiar terrain at the Tour de France, on the other hand, poses a greater conundrum for Pogačar and UAE Team Emirates.
Already the winner of two Tours before his 23rd birthday, Pogačar was favoured to complete a hat-trick last July, and he looked on course after an opening week that saw him net two stage wins and take hold of the yellow jersey. The dynamic of the race, however, changed utterly in the final 5km of the Col du Granon on stage 11 when Pogačar cracked dramatically, worn out by his attempts to quell the storm unleashed by Jumbo-Visma earlier in the day.
Pogačar, whose default setting is to attack, took the fight to Vingegaard all the way to the Pyrenees, but he didn’t claw back so much as a second on the Dane before Paris, and he conceded defeat after he was distanced again on Hautacam. For the first time since his emergence as a Grand Tour winner, Pogačar had encountered someone who had his measure, temporarily or otherwise.
As Pogačar and UAE Team Emirates enter 2023, then, one question dominates: how do they go about resolving their Vingegaard problem? Vingegaard had, after all, already served warning by breaking even with Pogačar in the mountains in the second half of the 2021 Tour.
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Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) with 2022 Tour de France winner Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) on his wheel in the Pyrenees on stage 18, before the Dane left him behind with an attack at 3km to go. (Image credit: Getty Images Sport)
"I don’t think we need to change a lot. I had one bad day," Pogačar told Cyclingnews at the end of the season, though he was reluctant to go into any particular detail about what had triggered that jour sans in the Alps. “The reasons don’t really matter. Before that day and afterwards I was good, and good in lots of other races too. I’ve no regrets."
From the outside, it was tempting to posit that Pogačar had simply flown too close to the sun, first by needlessly expending energy in chasing stage victories in the opening week and then by feeling compelled to shut down every Jumbo attack – even those by his compatriot Primoz Roglič, already well down on GC – on that fateful afternoon over the Col du Galibier.
In that scenario, the obvious and simplistic ‘solution’ would be for Pogačar to dose his effort more carefully and race more cautiously at the Tour, saving energy where possible rather than straining to produce a masterpiece every day for limited returns. Less is more, in other words.
The counterargument, of course, is that placing limits on Pogačar’s virtuosity might end up inhibiting the very aggressive instincts that carried him this far in the first place. It's a balancing act, but any changes to Pogačar’s own philosophy are likely to be minor in 2023. Attacking racing, in July and elsewhere, will be de rigueur.
UAE will, however, surely expect more from his supporting cast in July. For starters, Mauro Gianetti’s squad will hope to avoid the spate of COVID-19 cases and crashes that forced so many of Pogačar’s teammates to abandon the 2022 Tour. Brandon McNulty still provided a most outstanding cameo on Pogačar’s behalf on the road to Peyragudes, but the team will require greater consistency from the American and the rest of the climbing domestiques if they are to go toe to toe with Jumbo-Visma in July.
Brandon McNulty laying down a huge ride on the Peyragudes stage of the Tour de France (Image credit: Getty Images Sport)
To that end, UAE Team Emirates have added considerable depth to their roster with the signing of Adam Yates and Jay Vine for 2023, and they may also avail the luxury option of drafting Juan Ayuso – so impressive in finishing third at the Vuelta a España this year – into Pogačar’s service at the Tour. Ill fortune notwithstanding, Pogačar should be able to rely on more reliable support in July this time around.
It's notable, too, that UAE’s tweaks are not limited to personnel. In October, the news broke that they would use Shimano groupsets rather than Campagnolo on their Colnago bikes in 2023. More recently, word of more equipment changes has emerged, with the team set to use Enve wheels, Continental tyres and new carbon fibre one-piece cockpits created by Colnago in 2023. At his best, Pogačar gives the impression he could win races aboard a commuter bike, but now it seems that every little detail counts in the attempt to tip the balance back in his favour in July.
In the first half of last year, RCS Sport had been privately optimistic about the prospect of persuading Pogačar to make his Giro d’Italia debut in 2023, not least because of the Monte Lussari time trial on the Italo-Slovenian border. Once the Tour title was lost, however, they knew the idea was doomed. Pogačar will again shine across the calendar in 2023, but his quest to regain the maillot jaune will be the story of his season – and that of UAE Team Emirates.
Other storylines to follow in 2023
Juan Ayuso is under contract until the end of 2028 but he is already bagging results in the here and now. Strong showings at the Volta a Catalunya and Tour de Romandie hinted at his immense talent, and then third place in the Vuelta a España – at just 19 years of age – confirmed it. The Spaniard is reportedly set to target the Vuelta again in 2023, and he will surely go there with designs on final overall victory.
João Almeida might well have placed on the podium of the 2022 Giro were it not for a COVID-19 infection in the final week, and the Portuguese rider looks set to return to the corsa rosa in May. With nearly 70km of time trialling on the route, he looks an obvious contender in a race that will pit him against his old QuickStep teammate Remco Evenepoel.
In signing Adam Yates from Ineos, UAE have picked up something of a guarantee, a rider who should rack up results in weeklong stage races across the calendar while supporting the main man at the main event in July. While Yates is a known quantity, the arrival of Jay Vine from Alpecin-Deceuninck is rather more intriguing. The Australian’s brace of climbing stage wins at the Vuelta suggested that bigger things are still to come and his progress will be worth tracking closely next season.
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Barry Ryan is Head of Features at Cyclingnews. He has covered professional cycling since 2010, reporting from the Tour de France, Giro d’Italia and events from Argentina to Japan. His writing has appeared in The Independent, Procycling and Cycling Plus. He is the author of The Ascent: Sean Kelly, Stephen Roche and the Rise of Irish Cycling’s Golden Generation, published by Gill Books.
