Ten days of trauma in the battle against Pogačar - Philippa York Tour de France analysis

The first part of this 112th Tour de France is done, and a number of things are apparent.

The two main favourites Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) are a level above the other team leaders. Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quickstep) is the reference in the squabble for the last spot on the podium, and sadly the Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) we all hoped would be influential for at least some of the action hasn’t turned up at all.

Thankfully, the Red Bull squad have Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) to take some of the pressure whilst we all wait to see if the Evenepoel transfer is just a rumour or not, but we’ll touch on that later.

First things first, Pogačar has been imperial – two stage wins; in and out of the race lead with striking ease – there are probably only two times he has been pushed to his limit. One was on the Rampe Saint-Hilaire climb of the stage to Rouen when he attacked, and the other was on the following day’s time trial in Caen.

He would have been aware that he had briefly gapped Vingegaard, but he couldn’t or wouldn’t go any deeper in that moment. Yet despite that effort he still won the final sprint against Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and most of the GC contenders.

What the stage did confirm was that the Dane’s form was better than their last encounter at the Dauphiné. Maybe having to go so deep to match Pogacar came at the price paid in the following day’s time trial for the Visma leader. The best one-minute power statement of Vingegaard was in complete contrast to the dejection the next day when he had a very average TT and lost over a minute to his direct rival.

I do wonder if Visma were lulled into a false sense of security by a deliberate UAE ploy after that Dauphiné TT. In the lead up to the Tour they have clearly worked on Vingegaard’s ability to deal with the World Champion’s accelerations, probably thinking that they had TT superiority whilst they did so.

However, there are some worries for UAE Team Emirates-XRG now that they’ve lost João Almeida and Pavel Sivakov is reported to be ill. Almeida was the perfect foil to any Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike) moves that Visma were planning in the high mountains.

He was capable of being that launch pad for his team leader deep into the final hour but also had the ability to close gaps in the valley, which in a Grand Tour can be very important. Now that he’s out following a crash, the tactics available to UAE have to change towards a more defensive position.

For sure, Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) can fill some of the climbing duties and Sivakov could have covered that role of controlling in the moments between climbs, but neither seems to be at their best, so the loss of Almeida is a big blow for Pogacar.

It’s also an opportunity for Visma to surround Pogacar and fire off riders like they did so well in 2022 with the Roglic/Vingegaard fireworks on the famous Col du Granon stage. However, that’s all very well in theory when everyone is sitting in the bus and a completely different story out on the course.

Now that Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike) has given them a stage win, they’ll be a bit more inventive with their tactics.

The big test for Visma awaits in the Pyrenees, but so far Pogacar hasn’t made any mistakes.

The Fight for the Podium and the White Jersey

What might be different is how the third-place battle develops. Evenepoel seems to be the favourite for that last podium place, but the Soudal-Quickstep support doesn’t look good enough to keep him reassured.

He knows he isn’t climbing at the level of the top two, and he looks like he’s feeling the pressure of having to close the gaps when the race gets serious. He’s looking for help from guys like Lipowitz and Oscar Onley but they quite rightly are going to watch and wait until they sense that the white jersey competition and that third spot on the podium could be theirs. Then they’ll pounce if they can.

Remco is mentally strong, but the Red Bull rumours and the pressure from the Belgian press might start getting to him the further the race progresses. His stage win takes away some of that stress, however, if there is one difficult moment in the mountains, I wouldn’t be surprised to see toys being thrown out of his pram.

Sprinters, entertainers and breakaway glory

Onto the good things. Alpecin Deceuninck’s first two days in Yellow – first Jasper Philipsen, then Van der Poel – were better than the team could have expected. Though they were expected to animate the first few days, the results were probably better than they could have imagined. The loss of Philipsen frees up MVDP to go in the escapes and be his epic self. The stage 9 attack with Jonas Rickaert was dramatic to the last moment and the riders’ faces at the finish showed just how much the day had cost everyone. Even Pogacar looked worn out, which is something we rarely see.

The Chateauroux sprint showed that if it’s flat, then Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quickstep) is the fastest, but Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) is probably stronger and can survive the hilly days and Lidl Trek have a better leadout. It’s back to the dilemma for Soudal-Quickstep – are they a GC or sprint team?

One team that knows what they are doing is EF Education-EasyPost. They go in the breaks and they deploy the Irish missile that is Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost).

Remarkably strong, aero and aggressive Healy is proving that knowing your strengths and having the support and tenacity to use them wisely pays off. His first stage win saw him come close to taking the race lead and now he goes into the first rest day wearing the Yellow jersey after another spectacular ride. I don’t think there’ll be one person who can say EF don’t deserve the rewards of leading cycling’s most important event. They worked for it and they can enjoy the limelight for the next few days.

UAE and Pogacar might benefit from more recovery and fewer obligations like podium duties but it doesn’t change the fact that Healy and EF Education made it happen.

As a story, it has to be better than the fabricated dramas of my husband is away from home too much, or I got pushed in the feed zone and it wasn’t good.

The race has been cooking nicely so far, and with the Pyrenees next the action is only going to get more serious.

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