Nothing set in stone - Mathieu van der Poel can be beaten at Paris-Roubaix

Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix brings the curtain down on the 2024 cobbled season, marking the end of the 'Holy week' of the Classics, a week after Easter and the Tour of Flanders.

Mathieu van der Poel is the rider to beat on Sunday in the men’s race. He seems a level above, a logical winner and destined for greatness. Yet those already bemoaning his dominance should remember that the cycling world could shift on its axis once again, as it already has done so often this spring.

The beauty of cycling is that nothing is set in stone, the wheel of fortune often turns quickly, ending one riders’ dreams and creating a career-defining moment for others. The cobbles of northern France could extend the Van der Poel show into the Ardennes Classics or change everything in the blink of an eye.

The World Champion could become the first rider to complete the Tour of Flanders - Paris-Roubaix double since Cyclingnews Classics columnist Fabian Cancellara in 2013. Or, he could be defeated on the exposed cobbles by the cycling gods due to a crash or puncture, or even in a breathtaking sprint in the Roubaix velodrome.

Whatever the outcome, Paris-Roubaix will be dramatic. There is nothing inevitable about the race and no room for indifference. There is beauty to observe in every moment of the race and in every rider’s joy or suffering, whether they make it to the Roubaix velodrome or not.

Even Van der Poel is not blasé enough to feel an aura of inevitability at Paris-Roubaix.

He has the support of a loyal and strong Alpecin-Deceuninck squad. Jasper Philipsen is a superb wingman and co-captain but Van der Poel also knows the world, or at least the rest of the peloton, will be racing against him. He can depend on his own ability, his cyclocross world champion’s bike skills and incredible 2024 spring fitness but it still might not be enough, especially at Paris-Roubaix.

Van der Poel flew to Spain to escape the cold weather of northern Europe and the growing expectations of completing a cobbled double. He went deep to win the Tour of Flanders after his solo attack on the Koppenberg with 44 km to go, admitting that he was human in his moment of dominance.

The warm spring air of the Spanish coast near Calpe will help Van der Poel’s recovery and ease his Tour of Flanders pain. Perhaps a few extra nights in his preferred altitude hotel will boost his red blood cells one last time before a Sunday in hell but nothing makes him a guaranteed winner.

Winning is possible, ask Mads Pedersen or Matt Hayman

Van der Poel had seemed unbeatable until Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) outsprinted him to win Gent-Wevelgem, and all the Dutchman’s rivals will be hoping for a similar day of grace and perfection.

Defeating Van der Poel would almost be as prestigious as winning Paris-Roubaix itself. There would be another layer to the dizzy feeling of success for a winner that could raise the cobbled trophy above his head inside the Roubaix velodrome and look down on Van der Poel from the top step of the podium.

An unexpected outcome is always possible at Roubaix, just ask Matt Hayman. The Australian recovered from a fractured wrist he suffered at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and trained intensely on Zwift to be competitive at the race he loved in 2016. Hayman had never finished in the top five in 14 previous rides at Paris-Roubaix. But, he joined the early break, paced his performance and then beat Tom Boonen, Ian Stannard and Sep Vanmarcke in the velodrome sprint.

Ten years earlier fellow Australian Stuart O’Grady won in similar fashion from an early move, while in 2011 Johan Vansummeren also won as an underdog. Even the early break or a sole surviving rider can stay away and win Paris-Roubaix, just as in 1988, when Dirk Demol spent 222km on the attack but held off the late chase of Laurent Fignon to win alone.

Taking on Van der Poel requires bravery and fitness to go all the way to the finish. The word of the race will be ‘anticipate’, with this year’s edition likely to explode even before the traditional rite of passage, the forest of Arenberg. It could be the perfect tactic, or be a case of falling into Van der Poel’s trap once again.

Pedersen, his Lidl-Trek teammates and everyone else who lines out excited but fearful in Compiègne on Sunday morning, can only dream big and aim high. They have nothing to lose on the last day of the cobbled spring – beat Van der Poel or be beaten by him yet again, make history or crown Van der Poel the undisputed king of spring.

Of course, the list of contenders at Paris-Roubaix extends beyond the Lidl-Trek rider. Pedersen is just one pretender to the throne for this year's classics, and all eyes will be on a slightly diminished Visma-Lease a Bike squad.

Destiny cruelly stepped in to wreck Van Aert’s and Visma-Lease a Bike spring but the axis of fortune could turn just enough to give them revenge on Sunday and stop Van der Poel from making history. 

Paris-Roubaix is one of the great highlights of the cycling season, and perhaps central to that is the race's capacity to surprise us. However, whether it be a display of dominance from Van der Poel or a victory for an underdog, we can be assured of a true spectacle of racing on Sunday.

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