Who will win Paris-Roubaix 2024? Analysing the favorites

Christophe la Porte, Mathieu van der Poel and Mads Pedersen (Image credit: Getty Images)

There is one clear favourite for Paris-Roubaix men's race in 2024, Mathieu van der Poel. But that doesn't for a second mean that his rivals won't do everything in their power to unseat the defending champion so they can heave the coveted cobblestone trophy above their head in celebration.

The World Champion may be carrying the most impressive of form into the second Monument of the season, having just taken his third win at Tour of Flanders. But if the long history of Paris-Roubaix has taught us anything it is that the fickle cobbles of northern France have little regard for expectations. The Hell of the North can be brutally unpredictable and even the best prepared on the day can walk away empty-handed as there is one essential ingredient in the race that no preparation can alter: luck.

Visma-Lease a Bike have had little of that luck on the run toward the race, leaving Van der Poel without his regular rival of Wout van Aert. Still, Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) had challenged the Alpecin-Deceuninck rider's dominance at Gent-Wevelgem and may perhaps be well enough recovered from his Dwars door Vlaanderen crash to do so again on Sunday April 7. Visma-Lease a Bike will also not be folding their hand just because they can't play Van Aert as a card, while plenty of other teams will be lining up to try and capture that prestigious win which in an instant can make a season, and a career, a success.

There are no guarantees in Paris-Roubaix, just some more feasible options. Cyclingnews has run the ruler over the favourites – with an update following changes to the expected starters – so read on for a closer look at those who may be in with a chance of rolling into the Roubaix velodrome at the front of the race after crossing 29 sections of cobblestones, including the both anticipated and dreaded Trouée d'Arenberg.

Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck)

The World Champion has already won E3 Saxo Classic and the Tour of Flanders, can he take a third Classic at Paris-Roubaix? The next potential triumph may well have been firmly on the minds of commentators as soon as the rider crossed the line in Oudenaarde to claim a brutally tough edition of the Tour of Flanders. However, Mathieu van der Poel needed just an instant before he could throw his attention to the next cobbled challenge.

“I cannot think about Roubaix yet. I am really, really fucked at the moment. It was one of the hardest races I have ever done," said Van der Poel in the post-race interview. "With the weather, I was completely empty the last ten kilometres to the finish line. I closed my eyes and just tried to get there as soon as possible."

It clearly didn't take long, however, for the rider to knuckle down and focus on a defence of his Roubaix title, with the 29-year-old on a flight to Spain on Sunday evening for some warm weather training as part of his build-up. With his recent form, race history and one of his biggest rivals, Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike), out of the running there is no doubt that the Alpecin-Deceuninck rider is the clear-cut favourite.

Mads Pedersen is the only rival to have truly challenged Van der Poel and come out on top this season. So the Gent-Wevelgem winner won't be nudged off the top rung of favourites just because key allies Jasper Stuyven and Alex Kirsch are out after the Dwars door Vlaanderen crash and things didn't quite run to plan for him at the Tour of Flanders. The Lidl-Trek rider finished 22nd on Sunday, with his early break attempt reeled back in, but that of course was also after a hard crash at Dwars door Vlaanderen. Another week to recover and readjust the tactics could make all the difference.

Pedersen, is stepping into his seventh Paris-Roubaix with a fourth place at the race in his palmares and the momentum of a successful Spring. But he still has that burning drive to win his first Monument. Furthemore, even though some key teammates have fallen by the wayside he will still have the support of valuable riders like Jonathan Milan and Edward Theuns.

Nils Politt is a rider who knows how it feels to have victory at Paris-Roubaix within his grasp, having headed toward the line with Philippe Gilbert in 2019 but then losing the two-way sprint. The UAE Team Emirates rider may not have been close to the top of the results board at a Monument often since then. But his third at Tour of Flanders on Sunday is a promising sign that could provide some renewed impetus.

On top of that, the cobbles of Flanders demonstrated some strength in depth within the team, delivering three riders inside the top five for UAE. Mikkel Bjerg came fourth and the impressive 20-year-old neo-pro Antonio Morgado was fifth, and that's also coming after a second place at Le Samyn. On top of that, Tim Wellens came 12th in Oudenaarde, adding to a solid run of results in one-day races this season. Those results along the path to the 32-year-old's Paris-Roubaix debut included a second at Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne and fourth at the E3 Saxo Classic.

A crash that Stefan Küng couldn't avoid with just over 80km to go meant that the Swiss rider spent a considerable period on the chase at the Tour of Flanders, and his placing of 41st was far from what was planned. Laurence Pithie, too, made some key moves but finished 39th while Valentin Madouas came 16th. That means that though the Groupama-FDJ team isn't heading into Sunday's race with the results they would have hoped for, as Küng said after Flanders,“We just need to switch mentally and now focus on Paris-Roubaix,”

The 30-year-old also potentially has a new asset on his team this year, with Pithie having proven an unexpected wildcard in the Classics. The 21-year-old rider from New Zealand has shown a propensity to spot and hang onto key moves, even if he has so far not yet seen them right through to the end.

Thios doubt over whether this may just be the time Pithie makes it in his Roubaix debut if he gets in a break may help ease the pressure on Küng and the team to chase. Or perhaps he could prove a valuable ally later in the race.

This is not the entry that we would have been expecting to make for Visma-Lease a Bike a couple of weeks ago, with a focussed and meticulously prepared Wout van Aert looking set to be a dominant force. Van Aert's crash at Dwars door Vlaanderen brought an abrupt end to what already looked like an uphill run toward the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix.

The riders who remained pulled together to fill the gap at Dwars, where Matteo Jorgenson claimed victory, but came up short at the Tour of Flanders. Now the team will once again head into a key race with their planned leader missing, but hoping they can combine the strength of his planned support riders to make a mark.

Dylan van Baarle is a former winner of the event, in fact he is the man that denied the injured Van Aert victory in 2022. Two yeas ago, the then Ineos Grenadiers rider held off the chase from the group behind to sail over the line in the Roubaix velodrome solo.

While Van Baarle has the proven record, his run into the race – like many in his team – hasn't been smooth with the rider having to sit out Dwars door Vlaanderen last week due to illness. The 31-year-old, however returned to race Tour of Flanders, where he finished 83rd.

Christophe Laporte too has a solid record at Paris-Roubaix with two results in the top ten over the past three edition. But last year's Gent-Wevelgem and Dwars Door Vlaanderen winner had to miss those events in 2024, and has not pinned on a number since Milan-San Remo, where he fell ill. The question now is whether the European Champion has recovered enough to slot back in and be a factor at Paris-Roubaix after a month of absence from the professional peloton.

A late and unexpected addition to the start list came on Friday, with Ineos Grenadiers announcing that Tom Pidcock would be joining its squad for the Hell of the North. The rider had planned to race Itzulia Basque Country but a crash during recon before the Spanish race on Monday changed that. With an injured hip, some pain but fortunately no fractures all of a sudden the door was open for Pidcock's Paris-Roubaix debut.

“I actually had quite a good week’s training, didn’t miss too much. And now [am] here at Roubaix, my favourite race of all, which I haven’t done as a pro yet so I’m excited,” said Pidcock in a video announcement of his participation.

Pidcock may be a late entry, and have never raced the Monument before, but he is still a rider that will be closely watched. The 24 year old from Great Britain has the passion and affinity for the race, with an obvious advantage being the bike handling skills of a rider who has claimed the cyclocross and mountain bike world titles.

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Simone is a degree-qualified journalist that has accumulated decades of wide-ranging experience while working across a variety of leading media organisations. She joined Cyclingnews as a Production Editor at the start of the 2021 season and has now moved into the role of Australia Editor. Previously she worked as a freelance writer, Australian Editor at Ella CyclingTips and as a correspondent for Reuters and Bloomberg. Cycling was initially purely a leisure pursuit for Simone, who started out as a business journalist, but in 2015 her career focus also shifted to the sport.