Saturday's Il Lombardia covers a route from Como to Bergamo which was last raced in 2023, but the more constant, controllable but still tough climbs in the east of Lombardy region seem perfect for Tadej Pogačar to take record-breaking fifth consecutive victory.
Remco Evenepoel may be hoping to match him on the climbs and valley roads and other riders may try to anticipate Pogačar's decisive attack but the world champion is widely expected to reach Bergamo Alto first and then descend to the finish line in the lower part of the city.
The 238km route includes 4,400 metres of altitude and five major climbs, starting with the visit to the legendary Madonna del Ghidallo chapel and ending with the Passo di Ganda. The long descent of the Selvino includes 19 hairpins and then a ten-kilometre valley road takes the riders to the final Colle Aperto climb to Città Alta and the fast descent to the Viale Roma finish.
The outsiders and dark horses include Toms Skujiņš and Albert Withen Philipsen (Lidl-Trek), Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers), Michael Storer and Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor Pro Cycling) and Ben O'Connor (Jayco AlUla).
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
Pogačar appears unstoppable and remarkably fresh despite racing into October and having won so much from the UAE Tour, to the spring Classics, the Tour de France and now the end of season races.
The Slovenian has won the last four editions of Il Lombardia and the last three races he has ridden – the World Championships, the European Championships and Tuesday's Tre Valli Varesine.
He won the 2023 edition of Il Lombardia on the roads to Bergamo with a solo attack with 30km to go on the Passo di Ganda. Even cramps on the valley road couldn't stop him winning by almost a minute.
Any other outcome or performance other than a win on Saturday would be a huge surprise.
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep)
Evenepoel will make his final major appearance in Soudal-QuickStep's blue and white colours at Il Lombardia and is no doubt tired of finishing second to Pogačar, but a victorious farewell seems unlikely.
Is there anything he can do against Pogačar? Probably not due to the hilly and selective nature of the Il Lombardia route.
Even if the Belgian can stay with Pogačar on the major climbs, he will surely struggle to match the Slovenian's attacks on the final climb to Colle Aperto and does not have the descending skills to close a gap before the finish line.
Of course, second behind Pogačar, or 'best of the rest' is still a result and it will be an emotional final race for Evenepoel, as he returns to the roads where he crashed so dramatically in 2020 and turns the page on his time at Soudal-QuickStep and steps near his future at Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe.
Tom Pidcock (Q36.5)
The Yorkshireman appears pleasantly surprised to have emerged from the Vuelta a España in form and even improved after the World Championships.
Pidcock was second at the Giro dell'Emilia and could have beaten Isaac del Toro and so is a real contender for Il Lombardia.
Last year Pidcock was 'deselected' by Ineos Grenadiers just before the race, sparking his divorce and transfer to Q36.5. What a difference a year makes.
He could finish on the podium on Saturday and then win the Gravel World Championships the day after in the Netherlands in a final show of his many cycling talents.
Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
If Pogačar has a rare off day or a crash, then UAE can count on Jay Vine and especially their rising star Isaac del Toro.
The Mexican is a favourite with the Italian tifosi after his long spell in the maglia rosa at the Giro d'Italia and appears to be near the same form as in May.
He has won 12 races since the Giro, dominating the Italian one-day races in September. He has the climbing ability and tactical nous to add Il Lombardia to his growing palmarès.
Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)
Primož Roglič remains as enigmatic as ever but has overcome further crashes and injuries to fight back and find some end of season form.
He was 11th at the World Championships and fifth at the Giro dell'Emilia, indicating he is on the rise. He has the natural endurance for Il Lombardia and the more gradual Como to Bergamo route suits his climbing style.
It'll be fascinating to see how he performs and if he 'helps' 2026 teammate Evenepoel in a combined effort against Pogačar.
Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost)
Ben Healy is a rider who will be hoping to end his very strong season on a high at Lombardia.
The Irishman took time to recover from the fatigue and success of the Tour de France but showed some end of season form at the Tour de Luxembourg and then the World Championships.
If Il Lombardia becomes a tactical race, watch out for Healy to try a solo move when least expected. If Pogačar hesitates, Healy could have a chance to get aero and ride away.
Paul Seixas (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale)
The 19-year-old French rider Paul Seixas became more popular than President Macron in France after his gutsy ride at the European Championships.
Il Lombardia offers Seixas another opportunity to show his prodigious talents. He may be tired or overwhelmed by the emotions of recent weeks but could step-up yet again and even try to take on Pogačar.
Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma-Lease a Bike)
In the absence of Vingegaard, Cian Uijtdebroeks is probably the best of the Visma-Lease a Bike line-up for Il Lombardia.
Sepp Kuss and Ben Tulett appear to be in domestique mode and likely to ride for the Belgian even though he will leave for Movistar in 2026.
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