Will a wet Paris-Roubaix derail Tadej Pogačar's debut?

If the weather forecast for rain during Sunday's Paris-Roubaix comes true, it could turn the race into a rare mud-fest, potentially adding an unacceptable risk for Tadej Pogačar, who added the race to his programme last month.

Meteo France is predicting warm weather and cloudy skies but no rain for Saturday's Paris-Roubaix Femmes. However, slightly cooler and potentially wet conditions are on the forecast for Sunday's men's race.

Pogačar is one of the top Paris-Roubaix 2025 contenders but as it will be his debut in the race, he hasn't been tested on wet and muddy pavé. When he raced across the sectors in training, setting Strava records, it was dry. It was also dusty and warm when he raced across some of the pavé during stage 5 of the Tour de France in 2022, where he finished seventh behind a five-man breakaway.

Because the race is still six days away, the weather forecast confidence index is only 3 out of 5, but if it holds true it could be the first muddy Paris-Roubaix since 2021 when the race was held in October because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

That year, Sonny Colbrelli won a chaotic Paris-Roubaix in his debut, besting Florian Vermeersch and Mathieu van der Poel in a three-man sprint.

While most pundits and fans believe that lightweight climbers like Pogačar would struggle in cold and rain, he has shown multiple times that he can be at his best in the worst conditions. He won stage 16 of the Giro d'Italia last year in terrible weather, soloed to victory in the Volta a Catalunya in similarly dire conditions and won a stage of the Vuelta a España in his neo-pro year in 2019 in rain, too.

Pogačar has dabbled in cyclocross and has shown excellent bike handling abilities in races like Strade Bianche, but a wet, muddy Paris-Roubaix might present too many risks and force him to reconsider his decision to take on such a risky challenge three months before defending his Tour de France title.

An injury in April could hamper him in July. We saw that his crash during Liège-Bastogne-Liège in 2023 and broken wrist meant he wasn't in top form for the Tour, and he lost to Jonas Vingegaard. The situation was reversed last year, after the Dane's serious crash during the Itzulia Basque Country one year ago this week.

UAE Team Emirates XRG were not fully in favour of Pogačar racing Paris-Roubaix, pointing to his crash during Strade Bianche as a warning for Roubaix.

"A bad crash could jeopardize the Tour de France and maybe even the whole season. I hope that he doesn’t do it this year, and I’ll tell him once again: there is still time in his career for him to ride Paris-Roubaix," team manager Mauro Gianetti said.