The next month is key to Paris 2024 Olympics road cycling athlete allocations

The end of the Vuelta a España has made the picture much clearer on which countries will have riders for the road races at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, with Belgium leading the qualifying nations for men and the Netherlands for women.

The next month will be critical for countries to earn their spot for the road cycling events, as only the top 5 nations earn the maximum allocation of four athlete entries.

The 2024 Games will be the first road races with field size parity between the men's and women's races, and because cycling did not gain any additional athlete allocations from the IOC, there will only be 180 total athletes in road cycling in Paris.

That means the road races will have only 88 men and 88 women, and the riders competing in the individual time trial must come from the riders selected for the road races. France gets at least two of those positions for being the host country for a total of 90 riders in each race.

It will make for an unusual racing dynamic - the elite men will race 273 kilometres on the Trocadéro route, and the women will compete over 158 kilometres.

The various National Olympic Committees (NOC) earn 80 of the road race allocations through the UCI Nation Rankings, with the top five countries getting four rider slots, the rest of the top 10 being given three, 11th through 20th get two and 21st-45th get one spot.

Men's Road Race

After the Vuelta a España, Belgium, Denmark, Slovenia and France remain in the top five and in line to earn four athlete positions for the road race. Spain has knocked Great Britain out of the top five thanks to Mikel Landa, Enric Mas and Juan Ayuso's performances in the Vuelta.

The British shouldn't give up hope for the maximum in the men's Olympic event - they're only 80 points from overtaking fifth-placed France. The Netherlands, Italy and Australia are unlikely to challenge being 2,000 points adrift.

The United States, for the first time since 2012, stands to have more than two riders after climbing into 10th in late August. Kuss' Vuelta victory has given the Americans a lead of more than 2,500 points over 11th-place Colombia, who, along with Switzerland, Portugal, Norway, Germany, Austria, Ireland, Canada, New Zealand and Eritrea are in line to get places for two riders.

Asian, African and American NOCs who have not earned a position for Paris from the Nation Rankings or Worlds results get a chance for another chance from the Continental championships. Those results earned Uruguay, Mauritius and Korea an entry unless the top 45 countries change.

Sweden, ranked 49th, earned one spot for placings in the men's road race at Worlds. The second spot is unallocated because all the men's finishers come from countries in the top 45 who earned an entry from the rankings.

If France continues to qualify for the maximum four spots, their two positions for being host country will be reallocated based on the Nation Ranking to the top countries who have not yet qualified.

Rwanda, Costa Rica, and Serbia are in a position to get the unallocated spots at the latest rankings, but the late-season races in Asia, like the Tour de Langkawi, will be a prime opportunity for the lower-ranked teams to nudge those countries at the lower end of 45th in the rankings out of the allocation.

For the individual time trial, entrants come from athletes already selected for the road race. The top 25 countries earn one entry, while ten more entries for the ITT are awarded to NOCs based on results at the World Championships.

Belgium, Denmark, Great Britain, Italy, Australia, the USA, Switzerland, Portugal, Norway and Canada earned one extra position each.

The qualifying period lasts through October 17, 2023, with the Chrono des Nations, Japan Cup and Veneto Classic the final races.

In the elite women's hunt for Olympic honours, the Netherlands are as ever far ahead at the top of the rankings, with Italy, Belgium, and Switzerland looking fairly set to get four places in Paris.

In fifth, Australia are chasing Great Britain, just 175 points behind in sixth. France, Poland, Germany and the USA are so far solid for earning three places.

With a pair of riders so far are Denmark, Canada, Austria, New Zealand, Spain, South Africa, Uzbekistan, Norway, Slovenia, and the independent athletes hailing from Russia.

As with the men, the top 25 countries at Worlds earn entries into the time trial (Netherlands through Spain), with the Netherlands, Great Britain, Australia, France, Poland, Germany, the USA, Denmark, Austria and Slovenia slotting in a second spot in the TT.

Two riders each from Africa, Asia and the Americas whose NOCs have not yet qualified get an entry based on results from the Continental Championships.

Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Vietnam, Malaysia, Mexico and Uruguay appear to have one spot each wrapped up for the road races.

These counts will shift as the season heads to a close, but for riders from those countries on the cusp, it will undoubtedly be in the back of their minds, if not at the urging of their national federation, to try to grab some points.