The Tour de France rivalry between Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard might go down in history as the closest of all time - not measured in one year, but across the four editions they've battled as the top two riders.
Cyclingnews looked at the time gaps across 84 stages of racing between the start of the 2021 Tour de France and the end of this year's edition in Nice and discovered just how equally matched the two riders are.
Overall Tour de France wins
(Image credit: ASO)
Pogačar, despite being the younger of the two, has raced one more Tour de France than Vingegaard and won in his debut season in 2020, beating Primož Roglič thanks to his performance in the time trial up La Planche des Belles Filles.
With his victory in the 2024 Tour de France, Pogačar has three overall wins to Vingegaard's two.
However, when it comes to face-to-face meetings at the Tour de France, the two riders are tied because Vingegaard did not race the Tour in 2020.
Verdict: Pogačar by 1
2021-2024 Tour de France total time gap
(Image credit: ASO)
Over four years of racing - 328.5 hours, 13667.1 kilometres, Pogačar has a lead of one minute and 25 seconds - an average of just over one second per stage. How crazy is that?
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Pogačar had a strong lead in the combined Tours until stage 17 of the 2023 edition when he famously cracked on the Col de la Loze, calling back to his team car to announce, "I'm gone, I'm dead".
Although he rallied as best he could before the finish in Courchevel, Pogačar gave up 5:47 to Vingegaard on that day and lost all hopes of winning the Tour that year. Pogačar finally lost the accumulated advantage he enjoyed on that day.
However, if you factor in that Vingegaard sat up on the final stage in 2022 and gave up 51 seconds, Pogačar had already dropped behind the Dane, having lost 1:38 in the time trial the day before.
This year, it took Pogačar until stage 19 to turn around his deficit to the Dane in the cumulative four-year Tour elapsed time - a big surprise considering Vingegaard nearly didn't start the Tour de France after suffering a heavy crash during the Itzulia Basque Country.
Had Vingegaard not sat up on that final day in 2022, Pogačar's lead would be just 34 seconds, making the comparison even closer.
Verdict: Pogačar faster over four years
2021-2024 Tour de France total time gap minus time bonuses
(Image credit: ASO)
Looking over the past four Tours de France, much of the difference has come down to the time bonuses given at the stage finishes and the occasional intermediate bonification.
Vingegaard comes out on top with a total elapsed time of 328:28:02. However, Pogačar has an insatiable appetite for victory and hoovered up 3:19 worth of time bonuses to Vingegaard's 1:51.
If the time bonuses are taken out of the equation, the difference between the two riders drops significantly to just three seconds! Now, factor in the 51 seconds Vingegaard gave up when he sat up to celebrate on the Champs Élysées, which swings the balance in his favour by 54 seconds.
Verdict: Vingegaard by 3 seconds
Tour de France stage wins
(Image credit: ASO)
Tadej Pogačar has five Tours de France to Vingegaard's four but has amassed a much larger number of stage victories thanks to his aggressive style of racing, taking home 17 stages since his debut in 2020. The Slovenian won three stages in each of his first three Tours, two in 2023 when he was coming back from a broken wrist, and a whopping six stages this year.
Vingegaard has raced far more conservatively in the Tour de France taking only four career stage wins. He won a single stage this year by out-sprinting Pogačar at Le Llorian, one in 2023 in the sole individual time trial, and two in 2022 on the Col du Granon and Hautacam stages.
Verdict: Pogačar by 13
Days in the maillot jaune
(Image credit: ASO)
With five Tours de France completed and three overall wins, Pogačar has the jump on Vingegaard in terms of days in yellow. However, one has to remember that in 2021, Vingegaard was racing as a domestique for Primož Roglič and only targeted the podium after Roglič crashed on stage 3 and struggled in the first mountain stages before dropping out on stage 9.
Vingegaard started his maillot jaune run on stage 11 of the 2022 Tour de France and took over the lead in 2023 on stage 6 and held it to the finish.
In comparison, Pogačar only moved into yellow on stage 20 of his first Tour and led from stage 8 in 2021. He spent five stages in the maillot jaune in 2022 before dropping behind Vingegaard on the Col du Granon on stage 11. Pogačar didn't wear the maillot jaune in 2023 but spent the race in the best young rider's jersey.
Verdict: Pogačar by 13 days
Tour de France Time Trials
(Image credit: ASO)
Pogačar and Vingegaard have faced off against each other in individual time trials seven times during the past four Tours de France, and the Slovenian won four of them. His biggest margin was this year's final stage in Nice, where he won by 63 seconds over his Danish rival but their previous meetings were either very close or, in the case of last year's stage 16 test, a blow-out of 1:38.
The difference between the two is as small in the Tour time trials as in the overall classifications - just eight seconds in Vingegaard's favour over 193.3 kilometres of individual time trials.
Verdict: Vingegaard by a nose
2021 stage 5: Pogačar beat Vingegaard by 27 seconds over 27.2km
2021 stage 20: Vingegaard beat Pogačar by 25 seconds over 30.8km
2022 stage 1: Pogačar over Vingegaard by 8 seconds over 13.2km
2022 stage 20: Vingegaard over Pogačar by 8 seconds over 40.7km
2023 stage 16: Vingegaard over Pogačar by 98 seconds over 22.4km
2024 stage 7: Pogačar over Vingegaard by 25 seconds over 25.3km
2024 stage 21: Pogačar over Vingegaard by 63 seconds over 33.7km
Laura Weislo is a Cyclingnews veteran of 20 years. Having joined in 2006, Laura extensively covered the Operacion Puerto doping scandal, the years-long conflict between the UCI and the Tour de France organisers ASO over the creation of the WorldTour, and the downfall of Lance Armstrong and his lifetime ban for doping. As Managing Editor, Laura coordinates coverage for North American events and global news.
