Crunch time for Giro d'Italia sprinters – Who hasn't won yet, and what are their chances?

While the overall narrative of a Grand Tour like the Giro d'Italia is often dominated by the general classification, there are numerous subplots that evolve and develop during a three-week race, and one of the most important ones is sprinting.

Just like winning the GC or a stage is the pinnacle for climbers, taking a sprint victory in a Grand Tour is one of the biggest achievements a sprinter can score. And though the Tour de France may hold the top spot, the Giro has still attracted a strong crop of sprinters this year.

But, as the race heads into its final week or so, the chances for sprinters become few and far between, and the possibility of leaving the race winless becomes likelier and likelier as the sprint stages dwindle.

After stage 13 to Vicenza, there are only really two sprint chances left in this Giro: stage 14 to Nova Gorica, and stage 21 in Rome, so crunch time is approaching for many sprinters in this race.

So far, the wins have been quite spread out. Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) has taken four, mainly on the less pure sprint finishes, but the other three sprints have been won by three different riders. Good in some ways, as it means the sprinting is quite open, but it also means that many riders will want to pick up a second win, to elevate themselves above the rest.

Will Olav Kooij (Visma-Lease a Bike), Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) or Casper van Uden (Picnic PostNL) score a deuce-breaking second win? Can a winless sprinter step up in the final chances? And what does this all mean for the maglia ciclamino? Let's take a look.

The winners so far

In the first five days, Mads Pedersen scored three wins, taking advantage of the tougher finishes in Albania and Matera to sprint to victory where the purer sprinters struggled or were dropped altogether. He then took a spectacular fourth win on stage 13, conquering the Monte Berico climb to beat Wout van Aert and notch up another victory, with the other sprinters nowhere to be seen. You could say Pedersen is in a class of his own, competing for wins the other sprinters have no chance at, but the fact that he is also taking top-fives in the flat sprints means that the pure sprinters can and should be compared against him.

In the flat sprints, no one has been able to assert dominance in the way Pedersen has on the punchier ones. From three bunch sprints, we've seen three different winners: Casper van Uden in Lecce, Kaden Groves in Naples, and Olav Kooij in Viadana. With such an equal share of the spoils so far, there's certainly a sense that one of those three will want to add a second, or third win to their tally to try to lay claim to being the best sprinter in this race.

Of these three, Olav Kooij looks like the likely contender to win again, particularly in Rome. The Dutchman has a super fast turn of speed, and has only been hampered by some mistakes in the Visma lead-out, rather than not being fast enough, but they look to have ironed those issues out.

Groves is also sprinting well, but has been dealing with a lingering injury this season, and could be more disadvantaged by the tiring final week. Van Uden, who is riding his first Grand Tour, is in a similar spot, and his lack of experience in three-week races could be his undoing. His win in Lecce was not a fluke but certainly surprising, so he's probably a bit of a dark horse to take another win, especially missing a lead-out rider in Bram Welten.

The maglia ciclamino

As well as wins, the subplot always surrounding Grand Tour sprinting is the points jersey. This isn't all about winning sprints, and there are points on the line on every stage, both at the finish and in intermediates, but with the bulk of points available on flat finishes, a couple of victories can rocket you into contention.

Pedersen has led the maglia ciclamino standings since day 1, but Kooij has been running close, and the Dutch rider's victory on stage 12 did put him possibly threateningly close to Pedersen. However, Pedersen's win on stage 13 has bolstered his lead to 122 points, so while not mathematically secure, and of course he has to finish the race, it's looking increasingly likely that the Dane will win the classification. The other sprinters are just here for stage wins now.

The next chances

With the final week of the Giro traditionally packed with climbing stages, there are only really two or three stages left for the sprinters, but even then, history has shown us that late flat stages can sometimes see the break get the better of a tiring peloton.

The next chance comes on stage 14, but that's not an entirely straightforward sprint. The stage to Nova Gorica in Slovenia has a 3.5km climb in the final 50km, and then the finishing laps sees the peloton take on the 700m, 7.7% Saver climb twice. It's only short and sharp, but could make for a more hectic sprint, or challenge the weaker climbers. From there it's a flat finish in the town.

Stage 18 could also be a sprint, given it's flat for the final 45km, but three tough climbs early on could either see the sprinters dropped or tired early, or lean in favour of the breakaway, especially with the sprint teams tired after some tough mountain days.

After that, the final chance will be in Rome, on a very flat closing stage set on laps in the capital. This is a pretty nailed-on sprinting day, but the laps can always make it hectic, and means that organisation and staying composed in the stress may be more important than just pure speed. This is as much a test of the lead-out riders as the sprinters.

With just a maximum of three sprints remaining, and lots of sprinters without any kind of top result to speak of, who are the riders we're expecting to be hunting victory with increased desperation in the next nine days?

The sprinters still chasing a win

Paul Magnier (Soudal-QuickStep)

Record so far (on pure sprint stages 4, 6 and 12): 7th, 3rd, 8th

Soudal-QuickStep's 21-year-old Frenchman had a really good start to the season, winning on his first day of racing and taking a close second in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, but as the Giro approached – his first Grand Tour – his form has waned. After a post-Classics break, his last result was 91st in Eschborn-Frankfurt, so it's not a huge surprise that he didn't hit the ground running in the Giro. However, he has been consistent in the top 10, and with the likes of Luke Lamperti and Ethan Hayter supporting him, he definitely shouldn't be written off. Rome may be too tough and hectic, but he should hope for a top result on stage 14.

Sam Bennett (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale)

Record so far: 6th, 11th, 11th

Sam Bennett came to this race trying to break a Grand Tour stage win drought that's lasted nearly three years, and so far it hasn't been great. Decathlon are here without a GC rider, so in theory, the Irishman should have some good support, but they've looked overwhelmed by the bigger lead-outs so far, with Bennett lacking the speed in the finals too. Winner on the Champs-Élysées in 2020, Bennett can navigate a crazy sprint, so Rome could be a real chance, but with his results so far, perhaps don't hold your breath.

Milan Fretin (Cofidis)

Record so far: 11th, 2nd, 6th

Every year, a sprinter emerges as the new name expected to challenge the established riders, and this year that honour has been bestowed on Cofidis' Milan Fretin. He's taken three wins so far this year, but his first Giro is so far winless. He came really close in Naples, albeit from a reduced group after the crash, and has probably the best chance of these winless sprinters to break his duck. The Belgian thrives when it's a bit harder, so Rome could be hard, but he'll have a keen eye on stage 14.

Matteo Moschetti (Q36.5 Pro Cycling)

Record so far: 9th, 176th (relegated from 8th), 10th

In the absence of Jonathan Milan, there was a lot of attention on Italian Matteo Moschetti pre-race, and he's been consistently finishing in the top 10, but not much higher than that. He can win in big sprints – he won a stage of the AlUla Tour this year – but the level of fight in a Grand Tour stage might just be a little too much for him right now. He should be aiming to crack the top 5 one day in this Giro, but a win seems unlikely at this point.

Max Kanter (XDS Astana)

Record so far: 103rd (relegated from 5th), 4th, 7th

Barring his relegation on stage 4, Max Kanter has one of the best records of the winless sprinters in this Giro. However, the German has never won a Grand Tour sprint stage, perhaps suggesting he's just lacking the final something to transform consistency into success. What's more, Astana's points-hunting strategy could be a problem – they'd rather have several riders in the top 30, rather than commit everything to one rider.

Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech)

Record so far: 13th, 144th, 17th

Corbin Strong is a rider more in the mould of Mads Pedersen than the pure sprinters, so whilst his results above in the pure sprints don't look great, he came second behind Pedersen in Vlorë and is a really strong rider. The remaining sprints are probably a bit too easy for him to shine, but if things get a bit chaotic, he could be an outsider, and should definitely be trying to crack the top 10 on one of these days.

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