The High Temperature Protocol, switching dates, racing in the morning – What could the future of the Tour de France look like as summer temperatures continue to rise?

For over 120 years, the Tour de France has been held in July, with winners from Maurice Garin to Tadej Pogačar triumphing at cycling's biggest race in the height of the summer.

But will things always be this way? Or will rising temperatures caused by climate change one day provoke a shake-up in the professional cycling calendar?

The question has been asked about cycling's other Grand Tours – the Giro d'Italia and Vuelta a España – before. The Italian race is sometimes forced to skip high-mountain tests as heavy snow lingers deeper into May, while racing through Spain in late August poses obvious heat-related challenges.

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The Tour de Frances Femmes, which runs in early August, the hottest time of the year in the country, is another race that will surely be affected by the rising heat, too.

This year, the same questions have been posed of the men's Tour as Europe faces a record-breaking heatwave just a week before the Grand Départ in Barcelona. Much of Western Europe has dealt with air temperatures of 35°C (95°F), while highs of 43°C (109°F) have hit parts of France and Spain.

On Monday, French newspaper Le Parisien raised the question, referring to a scientific study titled 'The future of European outdoor summer sports through the lens of 50 years of the Tour de France', published by a collective of experts based in France, Spain, the UK, and Italy in the journal Scientific Reports in February.

The study stated that, given the increased frequency of heatwaves, "it seems only a question of time as to when the race will encounter the extreme heat stress days that will test the existing heat safety protocols," citing Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) – a measure of environmental heat which takes humidity, air movement, and heat radiation, along with the standard air measurement temperature, into account.

A WBGT reading above 28°C (82°F) stands out as high risk, and so the study looked back over 50 years of July data around France. The focus was on key cities including Paris, Nîmes, Bordeaux, and Toulouse (and a secondary focus on six others), as well as the famous mountains of Alpe d'Huez and the Col du Tourmalet.

The study found that the highest mid-afternoon WBGT occurrences in each location "since 1974 have all been recorded post 2018", while all four cities have passed the high-risk mark in recent years.

"Excluding the two mountainous locations, each of the above-mentioned WBGT records would fall well in the high-risk category according to the UCI's [High Temperature] Protocol," the study noted.

"The WBGT trends over the entire Metropolitan France are positive, demonstrating an increase in afternoon heat stress values in July over the 50-year period."

Fortunately, a high-risk WBGT event has yet to occur concurrently with a Tour de France stage. But with air temperatures and the WBGT trending upwards over time, it looks like it's a matter of time before that eventually comes to pass.

The High Temperature Protocol and its consequences

What could happen when that mark is eventually passed during a race?

Cycling's governing body, the UCI, has taken steps in the past to assist with the challenges of the weather. The well-publicised Extreme Weather Protocol was introduced in 2015, while the lesser-known and less often-utilised High Temperature Protocol was adopted in 2023.

The High Temperature Protocol assesses risk in line with various WBGT ranges, with a WBGT between 23°C and 27.9°C in the orange zone of moderate high risk, and anything above 28°C in the red high-risk zone (other sporting federations, including football's FIFA and tennis' ITF, define high-risk zones above 32°C).

Once the protocol is invoked, various race stakeholders, including the commissaires, race director and doctor, and team and rider representatives, would meet to discuss the next steps in line with the UCI's risk zones.

Suggested countermeasures for the orange zone include adapting race start times, adding shading and motorbikes with drinks and ice socks. Red zone countermeasures include adapting start times, neutralising sections of stages, and even race cancellations.

At the time of writing, none of cycling's biggest races has been neutralised or cancelled in line with these measures, though more and more races are being affected by the heat.

Earlier this month, the Canadian Gravel National Championships were cancelled due to safety concerns as air temperatures hit 34°C, while in Europe, several national federations have made extra accommodations due to the ongoing heatwave.

Back in January, a combination of temperatures hitting the 40s and bushfire risks caused the cancellation of both Surf Coast Classic races and the alteration of a stage of the Tour Down Under.

Four years ago, stage 15 of the Tour saw riders racing to Carcassonne in air temperatures exceeding 40°C as the UCI enacted the Extreme Weather Protocol, allowing riders to take on drinks until 10km from the finish and extending the time cut as race organisers ASO sprayed water across select portions of the road.

"I would say other sports would be cancelled if it's that warm, but I think mostly in cycling we learn if something bad happens, which is very unfortunate," Bob Jungels told Cyclingnews at the time.

The Scientific Reports study notes that the lack of neutralisations and cancellations at the Tour due to the heat is "apparently by chance."

"It is interesting that the Tour de France race dates have thus far managed to avoid the worst of the July heat stress," reads the paper's conclusion alongside recommendations to keep developing and re-evaluating cycling's heat protocols.

"However, given that the route and the race dates have to be planned months in advance, while reliable weather forecasts are available maximum 14 days beforehand this outcome is apparently by chance.

"Accordingly, it is critical that both organisers and participants (and to a lesser extent, the spectators) remain vigilant and prepared. In the absence of detailed daily weather forecasts several months before the event, awareness of the locations with a history of dangerous heat stress occurrences, as well as emerging ones, is of key importance."

Measures to beat the heat

So could the Tour de France be moved, then? Shifting the race, or any other long-established major race, for that matter, seems unlikely in the near future.

In recent years, races have managed to avoid running in air temperatures and WBGT which stray into the high-risk category as defined by the UCI and the Scientific Reports study, so there's no present danger of shifting the Tour to May, let's say.

There could be scope to shift stage times around, given that riders race during a point of the day when the highest temperatures occur. This seems the most likely outcome in the near future, with races shifting away from the mid-afternoon heat and further into the morning.

"In July in France, morning hours are the safest part of the day," notes the study. "While high heat stress can persist during most of the afternoon, planning the race for the morning hours and avoiding the afternoons could substantially increase rider and spectator safety."

In the meantime, the Tour is also taking other measures to beat the heat. Speaking to Le Dauphiné Libéré recently, race director Christian Prudhomme said that he and route designer Thierry Gouvenou have sought out shaded areas more than they had in the past.

"Our approach to designing certain routes," he stated, when asked if the race has a solution for the rising temperatures.

"The Col du Haag [on stage 14 – Ed.], which is one of the new features for 2026, is entirely under the trees. Five or six years ago, when we were designing a route, we thought it had to be in the open for television coverage and for the public.

"Today, on the contrary, we look for climbs in the undergrowth whenever possible. But obviously, we will never remove places like the Galibier or the Tourmalet from the Tour de France."

At the Vuelta a España, which this year, in a rare move, will be run entirely in Spain's southern regions, among the hottest in the country, race director Javier Guillén has taken a different stance.

"The heat cannot prevent us from going to certain areas. It's part of the competition, and we must adapt to those conditions," Guillén told Marca last week.

"Furthermore, we have protocols in place for extreme situations. They are planned for cases of extreme temperatures. We are prepared and will assess each situation as it arises."

The Tour de France, and La Vuelta for that matter, will remain in the afternoon for now, then, and there's no talk yet of inverting cycling's calendar to avoid the summer months. But with record-breaking temperatures and extreme heatwaves becoming ever more common across Europe, that may not always be the case.

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