Jasper Philipsen may have finally taken his first victory of 2026 at Nokere Koerse on Wednesday, but the Belgian is still rating his chances of taking a second Milan-San Remo title on Saturday as 'very small'.
"In 2024, I experienced a scenario where I could win. That is certainly possible again, if I can get over the climbs well. Otherwise, you shouldn't go there," Philipsen told Wielerflits.nl.
"The chance is very small, though, and everything has to go right in Milan-San Remo. But the team in general is certainly just as good as it has been in recent years. It is not easy to complete the 'four in a row' for our team in San Remo, but the chance is there."
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Alpecin-Premier Tech won Milan-San Remo in 2023 and 2025 with Mathieu van der Poel, and the Dutch phenom already has three wins to his name this season - Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and two stages of Tirreno-Adriatico - so it's not surprising that Philipsen expects his teammate to be the rider to watch alongside world champion Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG).
"Due to Tadej Pogačar's dominance, Milan-San Remo has become a slightly different race, I think," Philipsen said. "In the past, riders never really stood out quite so much like he and Mathieu van der Poel do right now. The fact that they can really make the difference and attack right from the Cipressa changes the dynamics of that race a bit."
The battles between the two superstars have made the race much tougher, but Philipsen denies that the sprinters have no chance, despite riders like Arnaud De Lie writing it off altogether.
"There is always a chance. Nine out of 10 times, it is indeed a lost day, if you look at the result," Philipsen said. "But then you do have the kilometres and that long race in your legs. I also believe that you should go there for every minuscule chance there is. Milan-San Remo is too important a race to just pass up."
Nor should any of the capable puncheurs, he suggested. While a two-man race between Pogačar and Van der Poel is the most likely breakaway, there are "many possible scenarios".
"Either they will reach the top of the Poggio with a small group, or there might be someone like Filippo Ganna, a lone rider having an exceptional day, who just manages to hang on like last year."
After racing last week, Philipsen had a surprising 'dark horse' pick to challenge the two main favourites. "I saw in Tirreno-Adriatico that Wout van Aert made a good impression along the way. I think he is going to be close."
While Philipsen showed his speed in Nokere Koerse and Tirreno-Adriatico, he said that following the likes of Van der Poel and Pogačar on the key late climbs of the Cipressa and Poggio in the finale of Milan-San Remo "is a whole different story".
"I think they need to let their legs do the talking; Mathieu stands a very good chance of winning again on Saturday. And then I'll try to ride my race from the second line. That means after the climbs, seeing which group I'm in and what position we will ultimately be fighting for.
"We have different options on Saturday, that's the nice thing about our team. I think Mathieu can definitely do his thing on the climbs. I'm going for a more defensive role. And the season doesn't stop after Saturday either. From now on, everything is important in the coming four weeks. This is the period I have worked so hard for."
Part of that work was his latest block of racing, which left him "lacking a bit of freshness", but the morale boost of his first win of the year was all the validation he needed before the first Monument of 2026.
"I did feel that my condition is good ... But I think I will have digested Tirreno-Adriatico better by Saturday. I hope to be at the start in my best condition."
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