The snakes and ladders game of the 2025 Giro d'Italia GC challengers - Philippa York analysis

It’s an innocuous board game, Snakes and Ladders, there’s no strategy or sense to it. One moment life is good and all the throws of the dice are upwards, the next a slippery snake intervenes and you’re back where you started. 

For the second week of the 108th Giro d’Italia the game of serpenti e scale has been the perfect metaphor. There’s been the time trial during which Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) lost some of his lead to rivals Primoz Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates-XRG). That was expected but not to the margin ceded and therefore the GC game looked to be warming up again. It was a short step up for his UAE team-mate Ayuso and a more decisive leap for the 2023 winner Roglič. With the latter’s deficit to the race leader halved, Roglič was looking forward to a few uneventful stages, ending with a weekend visit to Slovenia and then a few mountains where he could observe who was ready for the third week.

Reassured by the TT result, experience would have been saying -  stay calm, don’t squander energy and remain patient because the biggest gains lie ahead. When the UAE duo were squabbling over bonus seconds here, there and everywhere he stayed well out of the way, rarely getting involved unless he had to and there was a sense that the Red Bull leader knew each sprint or acceleration his competitors produced would come back to bite them later on. From the outside every thing seemed in order, the plan to wait for the crucial final six days of racing appeared to be a wise choice but -  and there always seems to be one with Primoz Roglič -  he ended up on his butt. Again.

The goddess of fortune

For the third time since leaving Durazzo, Albania over two weeks ago Fortuna, the goddess of luck deserted Roglič. The injury details are vague for the stage 14 pile-up. However, since he had done the left side on the gravel roads to Siena and then his right side during the time trial recce four days earlier, the damage sustained in Slovenia has turned out to be more consequential than the 48 seconds he ultimately lost that day. 

Grand Tours are all about energy conservation and recovery, so there’s the obvious discomfort of the cuts and bruises to deal with on and off the bike. But also those physical resources used for body repairs aren’t going to be available for pushing on the pedals at some point. That moment came for Roglič on the Cat.2 climb to Dori when Ineos Grenadiers upped the pace for another Egan Bernal acceleration. 

Whether they had noticed previous weakness on the longer haul over Monte Grappa is unknown but as soon as Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) added to the pace the cracks appeared in the maglia rosa group and Roglič was left to his thoughts and little else. Despite valiant help from Dani Martínez and Giulio Pellizzari it looks likely now that Red Bull and Roglic’s hopes of a second Giro victory are over. Almost four minutes off the lead, battered and bruised, I don’t see a Chris Froome 2018-type revival being possible. Not with UAE’s collective dominance and certainly not with Carapaz and Bernal’s ruthless intentions. Roglic may have survived if the climbs had been ridden at a steady pace, even a high one but the bursts of speed from the South Americans, Del Toro included, have never really been to his liking. Will Roglic finish this Giro is a valid question now, or will he heal the wounds and come back for the Tour de France, perhaps ?

Lidl-Trek forge on

In the meantime, Lidl-Trek lost Giulio Ciccone but gained another stage win. Six from fifteen is remarkable and they might no longer be in the GC battle but they are everywhere else. It’s progressed from the Mads show to a Lidl three-week Italian celebration. Last minute bargains might be harder to come by in the big mountains but there’ll be no regrets with what they’ve taken home so far. 

Same for EF Education, Kasper Asgreen and Richard Carapaz. Each have a win to take into the final week and in the process the Ecuadorian has reminded everyone why he won the Giro back in 2019. Punch, panache and perseverance in abundance. UAE have to be careful they don’t let him and a resurgent Egan Bernal off the leash in the high mountains. Tactically, EF are very good at putting riders up the road awaiting an attack from their leader and though it wasn’t something Ineos had considered previously, now that they are being more aggressive in how they operate, the possibilities of the race being turned on its head is a good one. 

The conclusion of the middle week may appear on paper to still be a UAE stranglehold on the GC. However, the internal politics between Del Toro and Juan Ayuso aren’t settled yet, the tussles over bonus seconds was a pointer to the Spaniard's ambitions and the grumpy body language sitting behind the maglia rosa is a bit suspect, too.

If Ayuso considered the Mexican as the team leader he would be in front of him, closing gaps, going with the moves but he hasn’t being doing that. He’s hoping for the moment of weakness when he’ll seize the opportunity of following someone like Simon Yates or Derek Gee who are strong enough to ride with him but not as explosive as Carapaz and Bernal. 

Watching Isaac del Toro has to remind Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike) of how he raced the 2018 Giro, over-exuberant, following when he could have let others take some of the pressure, with a certain naivety even and that experience has meant he’s been very careful up until this point. With a Vuelta a España victory already in his palmares, he’s bound to know some Spanish and with what’s coming he could well find himself in a select group where that’s the first language. 

The dice have rolled well for UAE Team Emirates so far but it’ll be a high-stakes game of chess from now on. Which move and when, who to protect and who to sacrifice. Someone or something is going to happen.  

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