Giro d'Italia GC analysis: Ayuso makes big psychological step in overall fight against Roglič, with race still wide open

If Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) putting 16 seconds into Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) during the stage 2 time trial was the prologue of this year's Giro d'Italia story, then the latter surging to victory on the first summit finish on stage 7, and taking back 12 seconds, served as the first act.

The second day in Albania showed us the context of Roglič, a five-time Grand Tour winner looking to triumph at a second Giro, showing all his experience and missing that TT victory by less than a second. It also set the scene of the challenge ahead for the much younger Ayuso, who at 22 is a rising star, but failed to perform as he would have liked in the race of truth, and has a long way to go until he can match the palmarès of the Slovenian and actually beat him across three weeks.

Today's stage finally gave Ayuso the chance to fight back and set the story up fully, as he delivered with interest, catching Roglič out in a poor position during the final 1.5 kilometres in Tagliacozzo and charging to the line for his first Grand Tour stage victory.

It's his fourth time racing one of cycling's prestigious three-week races, and finally, Ayuso put it all together to net that maiden win. It wasn't just a big step up for him, but also marked an important sign for this Giro, with the stage the Spaniard won being very much a 'Roglič day' on paper.

A long, shallow climb with a steep final few kilometres that will likely come down to a sprint of the GC men –that screams Roglič, but on this occasion it was Ayuso who never looked out of control, scanning as he followed moves, before launching away when he realised his rival was well behind in the wheels. 

Perhaps it could mean a changing of the guard and takeover of the young man from the old, but Roglič did remind everyone post-stage 7 that he's "not so young, these guys go immediately. We [older riders] need a bit of time to maybe, hopefully start working".

There is, of course, little to panic about yet for the Slovenian, with the second and third week still to come, where all of the hardest climbing stages will come, not forgetting, of course, that he also went back into the maglia rosa on Friday.

But the psychological blow could be one that proves more important, not in the sense that Roglič begins to doubt himself – he's fought back to win Grand Tours from many times in the past, and Ayuso hasn't proved yet to be a winner over three weeks – but it could be huge for Ayuso's confidence. Though again, the last time this happened, when Ayuso outsprinted Roglič up La Molina in the Volta Catalunya, the Slovenian still came good and delivered a killer blow on the final Barcelona day to wrest back the overall lead and win.

UAE Team Emirates-XRG move well ahead of Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe

There's another big factor in how the team situation has played, with drastic changes unfolding in the past two days, after swinging well in Roglič and Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe's favour in Albania.

While key UAE Team Emirates helper Jay Vine crashed and lost lots of time on the opening day, removing him as a GC card to play, Red Bull lost their main climbing domestique and well-positioned overall Jai Hindley on stage 6, with the Australian abandoning with a concussion and fractured vertebra.

With Dani Martínez also nowhere near his best, that carried him to second at last year's Giro behind only Pogačar, Roglič's loss today was compounded by the top 15 on GC now being filled with UAE riders as they impressed on the climb.

Another potential superstar Isaac del Toro finished second on the day and also moved closer to Roglič's overall lead, now sat just nine seconds behind him, with Brandon McNulty and Adam Yates also not far behind in seventh and 15th.

As the men in white and black grow stronger and Roglič's support squad gets weaker, the 2025 Giro d'Italia is swinging more and more in favour of Ayuso's chances. The Emirati team will have several cards to play for when they want to put the pressure on.

Roglič was, and by virtue of reclaiming pink, still is the man to beat at the 108th Giro d'Italia, with history suggesting that he will only get better as the fight for pink rages on towards Rome, but Ayuso appears to be at levels unseen before. 

Ayuso winning a Grand Tour would also mean completing something a Spanish rider hasn't for 10 years, since Alberto Contador at this very race in 2015, so recent history is not on his side. He was after all, one of the youngest GT podium finishers ever at his debut Vuelta, so a win seemed very much possible for his future, even this soon into it.

With a potentially very risky gravel stage 9 to come before the second rest day on Monday, and the important second time trial from Lucca to Pisa not long after that, it's not long until we'll have a greater picture of where things stand ahead of the proper mountain tests in week two and three of the Giro. 

But the open race that was promised is beginning to materialise, and it is Roglič and Ayuso who are forming the rivalry that we were expecting – the game is now well and truly on for the maglia rosa.

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