As reigning world champion, Lotte Kopecky is a favourite for the women's road race in the Paris Olympic Games on Sunday, but the Belgian is hoping that the Dutch team with Lorena Wiebes, Marianne Vos, Ellen van Dijk and Demi Vollering will take control of making the race.
The Olympic format mixes the best riders from around the globe rather than bringing all of the top riders in the world, many of whom come from traditional European cycling countries. Attrition means that the key closing circuits of the race in Paris will have eliminated many of the 96 starters before they reach the finishing circuits and hit the key climb of Montmarte.
Kopecky, speaking to Wielerflits, isn't sure how the race will play out but expects her trade teammates and Dutch rivals to be among the top favourites and the strongest team in the 158km race.
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"It will be a bit of a matter of seeing how the rest will race," Kopecky says of the lumpy first 100km before the race reaches the Paris circuit. "I don't think of us to really make that race hard from the start and mainly to see what the rest wants to do first."
With Justine Ghekiere, Julie Van de Velde and Margot Vanpachtenbeke joining Kopecky in the Belgian team, she recognised that their quartet might not be of the same level as her Dutch rivals but she's confident in both her team and her ability to work any scenario.
"I don't think the level of my teammates is that bad. I'm pretty convinced that they still have the qualities to be in the final, depending on how the match goes. And if they're gone, it's because the race was really tough and they had to work really hard. It would be nice if I could still have a few of them in the final."
Belgium is one of the five teams that qualified to have four riders in the race alongside Netherlands, Italy, Switzerland, and Great Britain. The next five nations in the ranking get three spots, the are two for places 11-20, and then one apiece for nations ranked 21-45. The team balance and sizes add yet another variable to a scenario already loaded with them.
"It's not a super difficult course, but it will be a gruelling race because it's hard to control. A gruelling race is in principle to my advantage, but there are other riders who will be happy with this," Kopecky told Wielerflits.
There have been comparisons between the Paris course and that of the Glasgow World Championships where Kopecky dominated in the final to win the rainbow jersey. The key question of how decisive the Montmartre climb will be "depends a bit on how difficult the race has already been," while Kopecky also pointed to the fact that while it is a climb that suits several riders it is an obvious point for the peloton to be on high alert as well.
In Tokyo, the Dutch team made a big mistake in letting Anna Kiesenhofer (Austria) get a huge lead with her solo attack and came away disappointed. Kopecky hopes they won't make the same error in Paris.
"I hope they will control because they do have one of the top favourites in their ranks," Kopecky said. "Somewhere they have to take some responsibility. We saw how things could go wrong in Tokyo, which was a great shame for them. If necessary, we will also communicate very well among ourselves, but I do not intend to burn out teammates at the beginning of the race."
Nor will Kopecky be focusing solely on Lorena Wiebes, who is expected to be her main challenger.
"I have several assets to win the race, and that is to my advantage. I do not benefit from one scenario, there are several possible. On the other hand, it will be an unpredictable race and I cannot say much more about it," Kopecky said.
"I hope that the pieces of the puzzle will fall into place. But yes, that is what [Elisa] Longo Borghini, [Kasia] Niewiadoma and Vos will think. They are the main contenders next to Wiebes, but I think that there are a number of outsiders, such as Kim Le Court or Grace Brown. They can also pull off a surprise."
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