With two sprint stages completed at the Tour de France and two more on the menu this weekend, the battle for the green jersey is heating up.
Currently, the sprinters are battling against Classics specialists and the GC men, with race leader Tadej Pogačar heading up the classification with 156 points to Jonathan Milan's 122.
Not far behind lie 2024 points champion Biniam Girmay on 111, while Mathieu van der Poel has taken up the reins to challenge for Alpecin-Deceuninck following teammate Jasper Philipsen's withdrawal.
The Dutchman has 108 points so far, 80 of those collected via his stage win and second place in Boulogne-sur-Mer and Rouen. 100 are available at stage finishes this weekend, with an early intermediate sprint on Sunday's stage 9 offering up a tempting 20 more.
The standings should look very different come Bastille Day on Monday, then, and who better than seven-time green jersey winner Peter Sagan to run the rule over this year's competition. The Slovakian told WielerFlits that he can see Van der Poel pulling it off against the pure sprinters and GC favourites.
"He's definitely the type of rider who can do it, but it very much depends on how he feels and what the team's plan is," Sagan said.
"He's a rider who can climb and sprint, but it really depends on how he feels. It can be really difficult to attack one day and give everything for points, only to be back in the bunch sprint the next.
"But he could definitely do it. I've done it seven times, so he can do it once."
Including this weekend's trips to Laval and Châteauroux, six further stages offer up a maximum of 50 points at the finish (bizarrely, Friday's race up Mûr-de-Bretagne did too). Two more will see 30 handed out, while six mountain stages will give away 20 each.
Add to that the 280 intermediate sprint points available across the 14 remaining days, and there's plenty to go around for the green jersey hopefuls.
If Van der Poel is to emulate Sagan and win green, he might have to emulate him and race in the break for those intermediates. The ex-racer also pointed out that he'll have to look to his teammates for help if he's targeting the jersey, pointing out his own successful partnership with Daniel Oss.
"Like Van der Poel, I used to have a few guys around me, and with them, you don't race hard, but smart because you can't do everything," Sagan said.
"In the flat stages, I often had one domestique, Daniel Oss. We'd see if we could push the pace on a climb before the sprint with the teammates who were better climbers. Or if we could drop them earlier in the race. But Van der Poel knows what he's doing, so I don't have to give him any advice."
Sagan, who won seven greens between 2012 and 2019, only missing out on a possible eight in a row due to an early disqualification at the 2017 Tour, pointed out that Milan is another favourite for the jersey.
The Italian, making his Tour debut, will be striving to take his first stage win this weekend, though the mountains will pose a tough task on the road to Paris, Sagan pointed out.
"There's still a long way to go. Every day could be the last day of the Tour," Sagan said. "You have to go for green every day if you want it, but you never know what happens tomorrow.
"I also see Milan as a favourite because he can score a lot of points in the sprint stages. You just don't know if someone is going to grow in the Tour, or if they're going to get worse. How is someone going to get through the mountains? Everything is still open."
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