The scenes on stage 11 of the 2022 Tour de France were as dramatic as they come, and the sight of yellow jersey Tadej Pogačar cracking on the Col du Granon sent shockwaves through the race. But at least one rider saw it all coming.
Chris Froome confidently revealed that he'd told his Israel-Premier Tech teammates on Wednesday morning that the Slovenian, winner of the past two Tours, would not be in yellow by the end of the day.
Pogačar had looked as commanding as he did when strolling to last year's title, with two stage wins from the first 10 stages, but four-time champion Froome sensed he was about to be overpowered by Jonas Vingegaard and, in particular, Jumbo-Visma's collective strength.
"It's very interesting. That was definitely coming, yesterday," Froome said at the start of stage 12 on Thursday.
"I actually said to all my teammates at the start, 'I'm quite sure Visma are going to have the yellow jersey this evening'."
Speaking separately to ITV, Froome suggested Pogačar's "punchy engine" might make him susceptible to long-range aggressive tactics in the high mountains. But he also highlighted a potential tactical error from the Slovenian.
"Maybe he did a bit too much at some pitons. Pulling up the Galibier with Jonas in his wheel when didn't necessarily need to... When you're in yellow you can follow and you've got the right to defend. Maybe he did a little bit too much there."
After bombarding Pogačar with attacks on the Col du Télégraphe and Col du Galibier, that outcome came to pass as Vingegaard took flight on the Col du Granon and Pogačar came undone like he never has in his almost-effortless career so far.
As for where this leaves the Tour, Froome once again pointed to Jumbo-Visma's collective strength in predicting a more controlled race from here on in. That said, he indicated that Pogačar will not lay down quietly, with an opportunity for instant riposte on the road to L'Alpe d'Huez on Thursday, followed by the Pyrenees in the final week.
"It seems they [Jumbo-Visma] are going to have a very tight grip on this race," Froome said. "They've got a strong team, they've got their whole squad still. I imagine the race for GC is still underway today but in the grips of Visma it's going to be more controlled than it was with UAE.
"I don't think Pogacar is the kind of person to give up," Froome added. "I think he's definitely going to take the race to them but whether that's today or in the third week, we're going to have to wait and see."
Froome is still struggling to get back towards the sort of form that has deserted him since his career-threatening crash in 2019. He acknowledged that Alpe d'Huez doesn't hold the happiest of memories for him, having nearly lost the 2015 Tour there and having seen teammate Geraint Thomas definitively take charge there in 2018.
"Today being Bastille day, it's an incredibly significant day, and with the finish on Alpe d'Huez, it's the combination of all these things coming together to make it an incredibly exciting stage," Froome said.
"My relationship with Alpe d'Huez hasn't been the best one over the years. I've often struggled on the slopes of Alpe d'Huez. I'd like to change that if possible."
