Five final week Tour de France storylines to follow that aren't about the yellow jersey

On the rest day that opens the final week of the Tour de France, some things feel like they are already decided. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) is in the lead and likely to win the race – and probably a few more stages – whilst Jonas Vinegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) sits firmly in second, and clearly stronger than the other podium contenders.

As much as we hope things might change in the final week, we can probably be fairly confident in saying that they will remain the top two come Paris, with Pogačar likely on his way to a fourth Tour win. That storyline will wrap up in this final week, but it's not necessarily going to change.

A Grand Tour without a final-week GC narrative? When you compare it to the Giro d'Italia that was decided on the final mountain stage, or last year's Vuelta a España, where Primož Roglič only took the lead from Ben O'Connor on stage 19, it could feel like we're missing out on some excitement.

However, there are still plenty of storylines bubbling away at this Tour, from one of the most open fights for third we've had in years, to a green jersey battle brewing between a few very mismatched riders.

Ready for the third week of the Tour but wondering where the intrigue is? Here are five storylines to keep an eye on that have nothing to do with the fight for the yellow jersey.

The young stars battling for the podium

If we assume that the top two spots are decided, the opposite couldn't be more true for third place, where a really intriguing battle is building. Not just because the gaps are small and the racing is open, but because of the riders who are in contention.

At present, third to fifth is occupied by Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), Oscar Onley (Picnic PostNL) and Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa-B&B Hotels), and though three and a half minutes separate them, the fact they are all so young means there's a lot of possibility for things to change.

They're all riding their first or second Tours, in podium contention for the first time, and they all have little to lose and a huge amount to gain. The way these three young riders take on the next stages is probably going to be the most exciting part about the final week.

Plus, it's not even guaranteed yet that it will be one of them on the final podium, given young riders' tendency to crack. They're far off now, but we could actually see someone like Primož Roglič or Felix Gall leapfrog onto the podium. They know this and will be riding still believing that it's possible.

The perennial breakaway chasers

Like in any Tour, this edition has thrown up the usual cast of riders trying – and so far failing – to win from a breakaway. In this year's race, some of the key names that come to mind are Ben O'Connor, Quinn Simmons, Fred Wright and Michael Storer. They've all been in multiple breaks and worked hard in them, but so far have not taken the stage win they're hoping for. For Simmons and Wright in particular, this is a years-long effort.

With only a few more opportunities for the breakaways left in the race, expect these riders and the other usual suspects to be fighting hard and giving it all they've got. Especially for O'Connor, who was meant to target GC here but saw that fall apart, he really needs a win to make this Tour a success.

There aren't enough chances left for them all to take a win, so there's a big question of who will be rewarded for the hard yards in the break, and who will have to wait another year (at least).

Can Visma-Lease a Bike win another stage, and what would that mean? 

Speaking of stage hunters, there's an interesting dynamic at Visma-Lease a Bike going into this final week, as they both try to defend second – and ostensibly still chase the win – but also go for stage victories, as they seem to be accepting that the overall win is no longer likely.

Of course, they're not going to admit that they definitely can't win this race, and it isn't over until it's over, but there was a clear switch in the Pyrenees as the team started talking about winning stages with riders like Sepp Kuss, Matteo Jorgenson and Simon Yates. They've already won once through Yates, and the other two climbers could be top contenders in the Alps.

Is it a bad sign that Visma are now putting one eye on stage hunting? And would another stage win make up for not winning the race that Vingegaard has won twice before?

There's a hard balance to tread at Visma, because, of course, second isn't a life-changing result for a two-time winner, but they do have to have a sense of realism and know that they're battling a generational winner. But would winning some stages and finishing second make it a success for the team? Would third be any different?

From the outside, probably not, because they are provably capable of more than that, but it's going to be very intriguing seeing how they balance the GC situation and the need to win stages in this final week.

The unusual fight for green

Usually, the points competition – that's the green jersey – is dominated by sprinters and puncheurs, but this year, there's an odd mismatch of riders at the top of the classification. Leading it currently is Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), which you might expect, but in second? That would be race leader Tadej Pogačar, only 18 points behind the Italian.

Thanks to his haul of stage wins, and more possibly still to come, Pogačar is well in contention to win the green jersey. Does he care? Obviously, it's going to be secondary to yellow, but green is actually the only jersey Pogačar has never won, and would bag him another one of Eddy Merckx's achievements, the rider he is constantly compared to. If he wins another stage or two, he might not even have to particularly try to take green, whilst Milan and Lidl will be going all out, so this could really spice up the stages to come.

Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) is also only 41 points behind Milan, so he could absolutely still be in contention for the jersey, and that will ensure that he's still active and aggressive through this final week, which should be a treat to watch.

Who will come away from the race with nothing? 

And of course, the question that swirls around every last week of a Grand Tour is not about who will win, but who will lose. With 21 stages and 23 teams, it's mathematically impossible for every team to win a stage, and in reality, swathes of teams and riders often come away from these three weeks with absolutely nothing.

In this Tour, there are a few teams who currently have very little to show for their presence here, as 10 of the 15 stages have been won by three teams. Some haven't won a stage, but have done something, or perhaps won a jersey, but there are also teams like Intermarché-Wanty, Groupama-FDJ, Movistar and Cofidis who have really done nothing – and that's not even getting into the ProTeams.

As the level of the top teams gets higher and higher, and every stage is raced so competitively, there are just much fewer chances for most teams to go for a win, but that doesn't mean that's something that will fly with their sponsors. Therefore, a lot of teams will be going into this week with a bit of desperation, knowing they only have a few more chances to make sure they don't leave this Tour empty-handed.

As the race heads into the Alps and the transition stages in between, tune in early to watch the breakaway fight and see how these teams battle against each other. It may not be for the top prize, but the fight to claw back something from this race could end up as one of the most exciting storylines yet.

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