The long road to the Tour de France - Mark Cavendish starts afresh at the Tour of Oman

We've finally got there: after all the seemingly interminable twists and turns regarding which team Mark Cavendish would end up joining for 2023, this Friday at the Muscat Classic and then from Saturday onwards in the Tour of Oman, the Briton is finally back down to the racing business again.

It barely matters, in one sense, that Cavendish's first race of the 2023 season, the Muscat Classic, is likely too hilly for him in the finale to have a huge chance of winning.

The moment when the 37-year-old heads to the sign-on of the brand-new Omani one-day race will feel almost like the long-awaited end of a career chapter, rather than the much-anticipated start of another. Such has been the long-running saga that started last summer – the collage of events of the past few months which has seen the rise and collapse of the B&B Hotels project, the rumours regarding where he might go, and his last-minute signing with Astana Qazaqstan.

But the start of a new chapter in Cavendish's career on Friday will likely prove to be one with an importance that can't be underestimated. After all the Muscat Classic and the five-day Tour of Oman are where the 2023 road to the Tour de France and the bid for the 35th (or more) stage victory begins to take a definitive shape and the point where Cavendish's signing for Astana Qazaqstan could start to bear fruit for real.

Cavendish observed recently that "the goal is winning. Not one particular win, it's winning," and such is his status among the greats of the sport that any success will be automatically amplified no matter the category of the race. However, prior to July at least, it'll be hard not to view those results outside the context of how well they might bode for his chances in the Tour, too.

With all that in mind, are there any reference points for 2023 we can take from Cavendish's career in the past, given he's now entering its 18th season? Interestingly, when the Manxman took his first stage of the Tour of Oman back in 2011, blasting along the Muscat seafront for the 63rd pro win of his career, it had also followed a turbulent few weeks in his career.

'Crashes and the resulting injuries had undermined his chances' at Qatar and the Tour Down Under Cyclingnews reported from Oman at the time. That was after his win in Muscat, putting him on the right track to one of his most memorable seasons of all time, with a first Tour green jersey and a Road World Championships title in Denmark two huge moments in his career.

After the rollercoaster off-season, Cavendish has experienced in terms of contract searches this winter, struggling against misfortune in a couple of early-season races may seem like small fry in comparison. And in Oman, specific goals for the Briton will inevitably focus on the one flat stage on this year's route.

But in more general terms, Oman will also likely act as a foundation for a solid block of team-building and getting used to working together in a race environment for Cavendish and his new squad. Rather than pivoting everything around one stage results so early on, then, thinking more mid-to-long-term and ensuring the mood music playing in the corridors of the Astana Qazaqstan team hotel in Muscat this week is positive and upbeat will likely be the overall game plan.

In terms of the potential for specific success on stage 1, quite apart from form or lack of it, it's to Cavendish's advantage that the one flat stage in Oman's route this year is on a course he knows well. Running from Al Rustaq fort to the Oman Convention centre, stage 1 is virtually identical to the opener in 2022, right down to the slightly uphill, broad, untechnical finale in Muscat's university district.

A year ago, Cavendish did not get on terms with a faultless UAE Team Emirates lead-out provided by Max Richeze for Fernando Gaviria, the Briton regaining ground late but finally having to settle for second behind the Colombian prior to taking his sporting revenge by winning stage 2.

This time around, Cavendish will be an a priori favourite, along with UAE Team Emirates' Pascal Ackermann, always a strong contender on uphill sprints, and the new fastman in Cavendish's old team, Tim Merlier (Soudal-QuickStep). Max Kanter (Movistar), David Dekker (Arkéa-Samsic), and Greg Van Avermaet (AG2R Citroën) are also racing.

In terms of team support for Cavendish in a sprint, one of the bigger question marks this week – given the absence of the man signed to be his lead-out, Cees Bol – the most likely candidate looks set to be Estonia's Martin Laas, who has garnered 14 wins in lower-category events in bunch gallops and who could perhaps work as the last man for the Briton.

After stage 1, the race route switches notably in pace towards the GC battle, with four uphill finishes in four days. They range from the comparatively easy 1.1km final at 6.6% that could decide stage 4, the race's longest day at just over 200km, to the far more challenging ascent of the Green Mountain, Jebel Al Akhdhar, that will bring down the curtain on the race on stage 5.

Favourites for GC will include Astana Qazaqstan's Alexey Lutsenko, twice an overall winner in Oman prior to the pandemic. Then there are Jan Hirt and Fausto Masnada, first and second last year when Hirt was still with Intermarché last year, but now teammates in a powerful-looking Soudal-QuickStep. Louis Meintjes leads Intermarché-Circus-Wanty, meanwhile.

Elsewhere, UAE Team Emirates pairing Davide Formolo and Emanuel Buchmann could well be key factors on Jebel Al Akhdar's never-ending series of smooth, steep, hairpin bends. Keep an eye out too, for Jesús Herrada (Cofidis), third and fourth in Oman overall prior to the pandemic, and Movistar's Iván Sosa.

And with or without Cavendish, a lot of the racing interest in Oman will centre on Astana Qazaqstan as they have, on paper, one of the strongest line-ups present. Lutsenko is one name to be reckoned with, but so too is U23 World Champion Yevgeniy Fedorov, whose progress in the pro ranks after his spectacular win in Australia will garner a great deal of interest.

However, the 2023 debut of the teammate 15 years his senior will likely be the main news on Friday, at the least.