Tour de France 2026 contenders – Analysing the riders who will be in the battle for yellow next July

Let's face it, as things stand, there's an overwhelming temptation to reduce the list of contenders to win next year's Tour de France to a grand total of one, even though the 2026 route was only announced a matter of days ago.

Unlike the Tour de France Femmes, which has had a different winner every year since its revival in 2022, right now the odds on anybody being able to take on Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and beat him are not high.

As UAE team manager Joxean Fernández Matxin put it to Cyclingnews last June, 2025 was the first year since 2022 when neither Pogačar nor arch-rival Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) had had setbacks prior to the race, and even then, Pogačar was in a class of his own.

And yet, the options are always there. Even amongst cycling's very greatest riders – and names like five-times Tour de France winners Eddy Merckx or Miguel Indurain spring to mind – the falls from grace have always been very sudden and unexpected. And as for all-conquering teams? Put it this way: in 2023, Visma-Lease a Bike won all three Grand Tours; in 2024, they didn't win any.

So, for all the jokes about Pogačar's seemingly extraterrestrial qualities (and Indurain endured lots of those as well), the truth is that nothing can be taken for granted over a three-week race, which is why a breakdown of who the favourites are for the 2026 Tour is more than just idle speculation. Just don't be surprised by who's at the top of the list.

Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

When the 2026 Tour de France route was revealed last week, it was said that the organisers had attempted to create a route that would keep Tadej Pogačar from killing off the interest too early. However, the brutal truth is that, as double Tour winner Bernard Thévenet recently told L'Équipe, Pogačar is 80% the current favourite. And assuming he remains as superior to his rivals and as versatile, that percentage is highly unlikely to drop between now and next summer.

The UAE leader doesn't just have history in his favour, with second his worst result since his first ever Tour in 2020, and four wins out of a possible six in that period. His crushing and consistent domination in the high mountains over the last two years, no matter the race, instantly puts him head and shoulders above the rest as well. At 28, there's no sign of Pogačar slowing down.

Then there's his team. Year after year, the degree of support they've been able to provide him has steadily risen. It's got to the point where even in 2025, when he was bereft of key mountain climber João Almeida due to a crash, the remainder of the squad kept him firmly in contention.

Pogačar shines on almost every kind of terrain, but the route, too, is hugely beneficial. His sole defeat in 2025 by Jonas Vingegaard came in the Critérium du Dauphiné time trial, and nobody will forget how Remco Evenepoel put him to the sword in the Worlds time trial. But the length and position of the 2026 Tour's sole individual time trial are all in Pogačar's favour.

There could be setbacks of an unexpected nature. His recent revelation of a knee injury in the third week of the Tour explained both his somewhat flatter performance and provided a timely reminder that he is not infallible. But for now, even before turning a single pedal stroke in anger, it's no exaggeration to say that the 2026 Tour is Pogačar's to lose. (AF)

Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease A Bike)

The Tour de France route presentation sparked a very positive response from Jonas Vingegaard's management at Visma-Lease a Bike, and on paper, it's easy to see why. There's a very tough third week, where Vingegaard is traditionally at his strongest, and plenty of rolling and tricky terrain for ambushes – one of the weaker points of Pogačar's team, witness stage 9 of the Vuelta a España, where Vingegaard caught them all napping, as well.

The return of Le Lioran, the stage finish where it briefly seemed in 2024 that the Dane could get the better of Pogacar for a third year running, will be a psychological boost. So too is the inclusion of a technical, hilly time trial to open the third week, identically placed to the one where Vingegaard inflicted a race-winning defeat on Pogačar back in 2023.

As for Vingegaard, if he was still at some considerable distance from the UAE leader on the climbs, he's currently the only rider who's managed to put Pogačar in serious difficulties in the Tour. His win at the Vuelta a España this year was a timely reminder that he still knows how to win at Grand Tours.

The crunch question is whether Vingegaard can step up his game even further, and close in on Pogačar – and that's something that only the first half of the 2026 season will begin to indicate. For now, he's got the biggest chance of doing so. (AF)

Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

There has been much muttering in the Belgian media about how unfavourable the 2026 Tour de France route is for Remco Evenepoel, given the dearth of individual time trialling kilometres – his strongest suit – and the extremely difficult climbing stages in the third week. In fact, the decidedly non-committal comment by new head sports director Zak Dempster made it look like he might not even take part.

Yet the fact remains that Evenepoel clinched third overall in his first ever Tour de France back in the equally tough 2024 route. His climbing may be his weak point, but that's only in comparison to the two best GC racers in the world – compared to the rest, he's certainly not at the back of the pack – and at 25, his margin for progression on the climbs remains considerable.

On top of that, there's also the big question about Evenepoel's potential for improvement in his new squad at Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, when he works with new coaches in all aspects of his racing. That is an unknown for now, but it could make a colossal difference come July

That team change also means that unlike in Soudal-QuickStep, Evenepoel will be backed by a team bristling with Tour de France heavyweights, as well as having Florian Lipowitz, the man who succeeded him in third place in the Tour, as co-leader. For some, an exit from the Tour like last year in the Pyrenees could be psychologically crushing. But Evenepoel has proved, time and again, if his unwanted exits from a race are rarely lacking in drama, his comebacks are no less spectacular – but in a positive way.

The bottom line is, Evenepoel can't be ruled out of the GC struggle at all, and as things stand he's one of the few riders who could potentially put on a challenge to the Vingegaard-Pogačar duopoly on the top spots in the podium. (AF)

Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

It could go all sorts of ways for Florian Lipowitz in the 2026 Tour de France, and regardless of the result, that's what makes him one of the most fascinating contenders.

Third in his first ever Tour at 25 was an astounding achievement, simultaneously providing Germany with their first GC contender in years and confirming what his third place in the Critérium du Dauphiné behind Vingegaard and Pogačar – and seventh in his first ever Vuelta a España the year before – had already suggested: this was a rider who could have a major impact on the toughest race of them all.

Clinching a Tour de France podium finish will doubtless boost his confidence too, and at the very least push the Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe rider to try to repeat that result of third - something no rider has managed to do in the six years of Pogačar and Vingegaard domination of the Tour.

But apart from recent Tour history not being on his side, there are a host of riders within his own team keen to prove that their own GC options can't be ignored, too. So even finishing third again could prove to be an uphill struggle. Watch this space. (AF)

Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek)

Since 1990, no other country has won more Tours de France than Spain – nine, or one out of every four. But it's also true that in the last 15 years, Spain has only had two riders on the Tour podium and the most recent was Alejandro Valverde, who took third back in 2015, the same year Alberto Contador took Spain's most recent Grand Tour win, in the Giro d'Italia.

Could Juan Ayuso set that particular record straight and return his country to its former glory in the Grand Tours? Hopes are certainly higher than ever that the 22-year-old has what it takes to do so and after all the drama and controversy surrounding his exit from UAE Team Emirates-XRG, he certainly has a point to prove. The idea that he could not perform to his full potential in a team also containing Tadej Pogačar is what drives the current narrative of Ayuso's career.

With Lidl-Trek, where he will shoulder almost all the GC expectations – although Tao Geoghegan Hart should surely not be written off yet – there will be no option but for him to prove that he can live up to the hype, or fail in the attempt. And after third place in the 2022 Vuelta at 19 made him the second youngest rider ever to finish on a Grand Tour podium, as well as a rollercoaster bid for success in the Giro d'Italia, the 2026 Tour will be the first of many make-or-break moments for Ayuso – and Spain's current GC hopes. (AF)

João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

There can't be any doubt that João Almeida's potential to shine in the 2026 Tour de France on his own account will be almost totally eclipsed by UAE's overriding goal of getting a record-equalling fifth title with Tadej Pogačar. But at the same time, that was also true in 2024, and Almeida still finished fourth.

Since 2020 and his breakthrough long spell in the lead and fourth place in the Giro d'Italia, in fact, the Portuguese rider has quietly but steadily built up a string of top five finishes in Grand Tours. Only twice, in the 2023 Vuelta (ninth) and the 2021 Giro d'Italia (sixth) has Almeida – when he's not had to abandon – finished outside the top five in 10 Grand Tours.

His battle against Jonas Vingegaard in the 2025 Vuelta, though, is the closest he's come to victory, with a runner's up spot secured despite suffering from the flu in the third week. All this in his best season to date, with all his 10 victories in WorldTour level and three the overall of stage races of the calibre of Itzulia Basque Country, the Tour de Suisse and the Tour de Romandie.

What Almeida can do in the Tour de France, even in a contract year for the Portuguese rider like 2026, is almost certainly always going to be limited by Pogačar's ambitions. But he won't have forgotten either, that in 2023 Adam Yates made it onto the podium alongside his Slovenian teammate and after the crash out of the 2025 Tour – perhaps the biggest black spot of his year – there can be no doubt Almeida will return to July with a strong sense of unfinished business. (AF)

Ben O'Connor (Jayco AlUla)

When Ben O'Connor blasted his way to the top of the Col de la Loze, conquering the hardest single stage of the 2025 Tour de France, after his tough, crash-blighted start to the race there was a real feel of redemption to his victory. But it also begged the question of: what might he have achieved without those setbacks?

The answer didn't come in the Vuelta a España, where O'Connor, a memorable second overall in 2024 following a spectacular two-week defense of the lead, abandoned with yet more injuries. Rather the Australian's GC aims in the Tour and Vuelta of 2025 will only re-emerge again in the 2026 Tour de France, where once again he'll be the main overall contender for Jayco AIUla.

Being realistic, it's borderline inconceivable that O'Connor will be able to take on Pogačar and Vingegaard. But the podium is a very clear option and his ability to find a way forward in situations where there was a crushing favourite was proved beyond doubt when he took on Primoz Roglič in the Vuelta. Put it this way: if anybody can succeed when the circumstances are looking anything but promising for a triumph, it's O'Connor, and in an era where Tadej Pogačar is crushing the opposition, that kind of ability is worth its weight in gold. (AF)

Oscar Onley (Picnic PostNL)

Scottish racer Oscar Onley broke through with a series of stunning performances en route to a fourth place overall at the Tour de France this summer, his second participation at the race.

On the hilly finishes of the first week, the 23-year-old was among the few riders able to hang with the 'big two' of Pogačar and Vingegaard, and he hardly fell away in the high mountains either, showing no signs of fatigue in the Pyrenees or Alps. All in all, eight top 10 placings saw him take fourth in Paris, just 1:12 off Lipowitz in third place.

The performance came off the back of top-5 placings at the Tour Down Under and Itzulia Basque Country and a podium spot at the Tour de Suisse, confirming that this was hardly a flash in the pan.

Onley will be up there or thereabouts once again next summer, with his status as Picnic-PostNL's Tour GC leader now unassailable. The team has hired fellow Briton James Knox to support him for 2026, too. (DO)

Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

There's no doubt about the hierarchy at UAE Team Emirates-XRG next season, with Tadej Pogačar certain in his role as team leader and the top favourite for another Tour de France title. João Almeida is next in line in seniority given his experiences which includes top fives at all three Grand Tours.

Mexican youngster Isaac del Toro is next in line at UAE and his status has only risen as his sophomore 2025 season progressed, ending the year with seven wins in a month at the Italian autumn Classics.

That all came after a Giro d'Italia debut which almost saw the 21-year-old soar to his first career Grand Tour victory after he was thrust into a team leadership role following the loss of Juan Ayuso. He ended up in second, of course, after that dramatic penultimate day cat-and-mouse game with Richard Carapaz, but his status as a Grand Tour contender is now set.

Should he form part of an all-star support squad behind Pogačar next summer, he'll certainly be in the mix for a high ranking of his own. (DO)

Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost)

He'll be 33 next summer, but Richard Carapaz shows no signs of slowing down as a Grand Tour contender, even if he hasn't quite shown signs of the form that carried him to the 2019 Giro d'Italia victory since joining EF Education-EasyPost.

He came closest back in May, facing off against Del Toro at the Giro before eventually riding to Rome in third overall as Simon Yates swept through to take the maglia rosa on stage 20.

The race was a golden opportunity to add another Grand Tour win to his palmarès – perhaps for the final time – as it appears to be near impossible to do so at the Tour de France. Carapaz still has his strengths, and he can certainly target one of the 'lesser' Grand Tours each season as we've seen at the Giro and Vuelta. But challenging at the top of the Tour standings is likely beyond him at this point.

As we saw in 2024, stage wins and the mountain classification – or a top 10 overall – figure to be the limit of his ambitions in France. (DO)

Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM)

Paul Seixas is just 19 years old, but the talented young Frenchman may be in line to make his Tour de France debut sooner rather than later as the French public clamours for a male winner of the race following Pauline Ferrand-Prévot's triumph at the Tour de France Femmes earlier this year.

Seixas is set to fill the role of French cycling's next great hope for July in the next decade-plus, but it's not yet a given that he will be thrown into the biggest race in the world next summer, with Decathlon CMA CGM possibly taking a long view on his development.

During his first year among the pros, he only seemed to improve as the season progressed, recording top 10s at the Critérium du Dauphiné and Il Lombardia as well as a big win at the Tour de l'Avenir.

He'll undoubtedly excel once he makes the switch to racing three-week Grand Tours, but whether that will come next July is a question that has yet to be answered. (DO)

Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

Veteran racer Primož Roglič is set to form the third part of Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe's triumvirate at next year's Tour – should he, Evenepoel, and Lipowitz all be heading to France, that is.

The Slovenian will be 36 next summer and in the final year of his contract with the team, having made noises about possibly retiring sooner rather than later. He's been on the Tour podium once before, but, as this ranking suggests, any chance for him to win the race has likely passed.

Roglič is still a formidable stage racer in his own right, but the rise – and continued improvement – of Pogačar and Vingegaard means he won't be among the top favourites to win the maillot jaune in 2026. Instead, look for him to take on a support role at Red Bull or perhaps target a sixth Grand Tour title at the Giro d'Italia or Vuelta a España. (DO)