In 2019, when Ineos annexed their seventh Tour de France win in eight years, they occupied the top two steps of the podium in Paris with Egan Bernal and Geraint Thomas. On that evening in Paris, Bernal's youth suggested that one decade's dominance would bleed into the next, but cycling is rarely as straightforward as all that.
In the five years since, the baton has passed firmly to other teams, with UAE Team Emirates and Visma-Lease a Bike now dictating the terms of engagement in July and beyond. It hasn't helped, of course, that Ineos' internal succession plan was interrupted by the life-threatening training crash Bernal suffered in January 2022.
Ineos have managed two third-place finishes since their last overall win – Richard Carapaz in 2021 and Thomas the following year – but they began this Tour de France already quietly resigned to the reality that a place on the final podium in Nice would be beyond their current capabilities.
Carlos Rodríguez, fifth overall on his debut in 2023, is again Ineos' leader here, but the Spaniard is unlikely to fare much better the second time around. After struggling, like so many, behind Tadej Pogačar's stratospheric pace at Plateau de Beille, Rodríguez lies 6th overall and 11:27 down as the final week begins.
The Tours of the past winners Thomas and Bernal, meanwhile, have been compromised by illness. Thomas remains in the race despite testing positive for COVID-19 – Tom Pidcock abandoned with the virus last week – while Bernal also struggled with flu symptoms over the weekend, losing over 40 minutes at Plateau de Beille and dropping to 21st overall in the process.
When Bernal made his way through the mixed zone at the start of stage 16 in Gruissan on Tuesday, he found himself debunking rumours that his future in the race was also in doubt due to COVID-19. The Colombian was happy to confirm that he had tested negative for the coronavirus.
"I've just heard the news myself. I didn't know it was out there, but it's false," Bernal said. "It's true that I've had the flu twice during this Tour, but I've done tests and I'm not positive for COVID-19."
Thomas placed a resilient third at the Giro d'Italia in May and he began this Tour in an auxiliary role behind Rodríguez and Bernal. The Welshman has made little impact thus far, however, and his Tour was complicated still further by his COVID-19 diagnosis. The weekend's crossing of the Pyrenees, he acknowledged, was an exercise in survival.
"They were ok. I was expecting them to be worse, but I was able to choose when to get dropped really and get to the points where I had to in order to survive as best as possible," Thomas before the start in Gruissan.
"But it's hard on the head because I didn't come here just to survive. I wanted to at least race on the front, do my bit for Carlos and try to go for a stage. It's been tough going but I'm still in it, so I'll see what the next week holds."
Now almost two hours down in 38th place, Thomas should notionally have some freedom of movement to get up the road early in the mountainous days to come. The trouble at the Tour in the Pogačar-Vingegaard era, however, is that the early break is rarely allowed to go the distance. While Team Sky were often happy to channel Miguel Induráin's Banesto in the latter part of their victorious Tours and leave at least some prizes to the rest, every day is a GC day on UAE and Visma's watch.
"I think we'll just try to take any opportunity that comes, keep trying to do the right thing," Thomas said. "But it's tough, you know. You don't always get what you deserve sometimes, but you've got to keep trying, keep digging in. That's all we can do as a team. We're positive and upbeat we can still do something."
The thought was echoed by Bernal, who hopes he can take something tangible from a Tour that held considerable promise when he placed a fine fourth overall at the Tour de Suisse in June. Indeed, the trajectory of the 27-year-old's entire season had been a positive one before illness struck at the Tour, with podium finishes at the Volta a Catalunya and O Gran Camiño and solid outings at Paris-Nice and the Tour de Romandie.
"I'm feeling better today, and I want to enjoy the Tour in this final week," Bernal said. "In this moment, I'm taking it a day at a time, starting with a good mentality and focusing on the race, otherwise it's difficult. This is the Tour de France, the most important race in the world and we have to stay focused."
Focus can only bring a man so far against opposition such as this, of course. The performances of Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard on Plateau de Beille have been estimated in many quarters to be the greatest ever produced at the race, at least in terms of power data. In his rest day press conference on Monday, Pogačar suggested that such supersonic displays would be exceeded in the years ahead.
"I didn't actually watch the highlights, but I've heard the numbers. It's just bonkers, really," Thomas said. "But what can you say, really? It's just unbelievable. The team he has around him as well…. Obviously, Jonas isn't 100% but it's going to be an exciting final week. It's unbelievable what he's done this weekend. Fair play to them."
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