Tadej Pogačar dominates in the Pyrenees and again writes the race script - Philippa York Tour de France analysis

Dominance and certain eras in professional cycling come and go but some things never deviate very far from the historical Tour de France script. So far this year, Tadej Pogačar is in charge of the narrative, with everyone else just bit actors in his show.

This year's script was the same as ever as the peloton enjoyed the first rest day in Toulouse in the shadow of the Pyrenees last Tuesday, with everyone unsure of their fate for the following stages.

The only thing riders and teams do know when they line-up for a ride into the Pyrenees is that they are going to find out pretty quickly who is going forward, who is going backwards and who is wishing Paris was a whole lot closer.

The first rest day in Toulouse would have passed rather quickly with the various teams assessing where they were and what was likely to be achievable. For those still part of the GC racing they would have been reasonably happy that they had gotten this far reasonably unscathed.

Those who had won a stage or led the race would have been spared the grilling that the majority of the peloton would have received. The teams under pressure had to react immediately, which is why the restart of hostilities around Toulouse was so frantic.

I think it was quite fitting that serial breakaway artist Jonas Abrahamsen gave Uno-X Mobility their first Tour de France stage win. The team is always pro-active and always seems to have a plan that sees them have an impact on what is happening.

Of course the next day to Hautacam was an altogether different set of circumstances. The shock to the system when a rider goes from turning a big gear at 50kmh all day to suddenly needing the inside chainring and a large sprocket on the back for the high mountains can be brutal.

The Col du Soulor was the first major climb on the 2025 Tour climbing menu and so was always going to expose any hint of weakness.

The Soulor is one of those ascents where you are never comfortable. It seems particularly humid, there are pockets of stifling heat if it’s sunny and then there’s the rough surface and melted tarmac adding to the

unpleasantness. It gets better near the top but by then if you’re struggling the damage is done. Mentally as well as physically if the Soulor really hurts then you know the day is going to be a long one.

I was surprised to see Remco Evenepoel in trouble straight away on the early slopes and my first thought was if he can’t deal with this, he really is going to struggle in the rest of the Tour.

To his credit he did recover and valiantly got back on but he looked like he knew his GC was done. Being caught by Jonas Vingegaard in the next day’s TT surely affected him mentally so I wasn’t surprised when he pulled out on the Tourmalet on the big Pyrenean stage. It is probably a wise choice before he was completely physically and mentally broken at that point.

For brand Remco it’s a huge disappointment. It might even affect or confirm his decision to leave Soudal QuickStep. He must have realised that if he is ever going to challenge for Tour victory, he needs better support riders who are capable of climbing in the GC group.

Florian Lipowitz and Oscar Onley are learning fast

Stage 12 to Hautacam was the confirmation that Tadej Pogačar is the best rider in the race and that’s despite the Visma-Lease a Bike being collectively stronger. His performance to win the stage and take the yellow jersey back from Ben Healy crushed his nearest rivals.

Jonas Vingegaard put up some resistance but paid the price for it in the final kilometres and was almost caught by Florian Lipowitz who now sits in the last podium place now that Remco is gone.

The young German is proving to be the revelation of this Tour along with Oscar Onley who finds himself in the GC battles even though he started with no expectations of being in such esteemed company.

The learning curve for the man from Kelso is massive but he’s absorbing the information and experiences with a lot of maturity so far. I can’t imagine he enjoyed the mountain time trial up to Peyragudes airport but then Pogačar was possibly the only one who did. The choice between a road bike, a TT bike with road wheels or any other bike tech combination was never going to make any difference. The results from Hautacam and Pogcar's dominance were basically repeated the next day against the clock.

No gifts, at least not to direct rivals

Speculation quickly moved on to the big day over the Tourmalet, Aspin, Peyresourdes, Superbagnères. Would Pogačar go for three stage wins in a row? There didn’t seem much stopping him.

People seemed to think he had an average or bad day because he didn’t win at Superbagnères but that’s forgetting a few details and logical explanations.

He had a lead of four minutes so he didn't need to attack. He had ridden to his maximum the two previous stages and with the Alps still to come, saving energy might be a good idea, even for Pogačar

Then there’s the intelligent approach to Grand Tour racing, where making friends and keeping them happy is also a vital tactic. The other teams need to get something out of the race too, Pogačar and UAE don’t need to anger everyone by winning everything everyday. Let the others race and if they survive to the end then sometimes that’s OK.

Thymen Arensman produced a great ride to win at Superbagnères and so save Ineos’s blushes of being unnoticed for most of the Tour.

Four days earlier he had come close to the win on stage ten but that had been as good as it got for the once all conquering squad. They would have been one of those teams who held an inquiry on the first rest day. Their reaction and strategy of going in the breaks has paid off. They’ve even moved Carlos Rodriguez back into the top ten which was looking highly unlikely up until now. It’ll be interesting to see if he’s allowed the same freedom in the final week.

The other interest in the lower GC battle as the race leaves the moody Pyrenees is the contest for the fourth to tenth spots. If the race for overall victory seems over and appears boring, watch the battle for the lower placings. It is always tactically fascinating.

Oscar Onley looks good for a top five if he continues to perform but from current in fifth place Kevin Vauquelin to Ben Healy in tenth anything could happen. One good day for Primoz Roglic and he can move up dramatically but the inverse is true as well. Felix Gall and Tobias Johannessen will be watching Carlos Rodriguez and Healy a bit more closely even though they are six minutes adrift of them on GC. The race within the race always throws up some peculiar tactics as Paris gets nearer.

Allez Lenny Martinez! Watch out for Pogačar

I'm happy to see a pure climber in the polka dot jersey.

I feared for Lenny Martinez during the opening stages as he looked to be in real trouble. Now he’s back at the level expected of him and doing what he has to do to try to fend off Pogačar in the mountains classification by making the break, hoovering up points and surviving to the finish when the GC guys arrive. Allez Lenny!

Jonathan Milan and Lidl-Trek have the same mission of protecting their interest in the green points jersey. They have lost Mattias Skjelmose after his unfortunate crash but it means they can focus on defending the green jersey.

Looking ahead to the third week of the Tour, Milan and Lidl-Trek have one more chance for the stage win in Valence on day 17. It’s the easiest terrain of the final week but it will depend on if and how they control the attacks and the breakaways.

They might get some help from Soudal-Quickstep sans Remco and Alpecin-Deceuninck but there are three mountain top finishes where Tadej Pogačar can add to his points tally as a consequence of his GC racing.

That story of Pogačar being greedy and winning too many times might resurface again but in his defence UAE Team Emirates-XRG didn’t specifically race to make that happen on the way to Carcassonne. It was a tougher day than expected with the big crash mid stage causing a lot of anxiety for everyone except the yellow jersey. He just followed the wheels and tried to calm things down.

It wouldn’t have been UAE’s primary goal to put Tim Wellens in the breakaway but he was covering that move and could sit on and observe proceedings. That he attacked with over forty km to go and won solo was a bonus, that again favoured Pogačar and UAE, the dominant forces of this year's Tour.

UAE have now won 65 victories in 2025 and five stages in this year's Tour de France. We can expect even more in the third week on Mount Ventoux and in the Alps as Pogačar keeps writing the script of this year's race.