Without Tadej Pogačar, the Vuelta a España is about to descend into a level of chaos the peloton hasn't been used to for years – Philippa York analysis

The early action in the Vuelta a España had been as expected. Though it was a slight surprise that Tadej Pogačar seized the red jersey in Monaco, from then on it was highly likely he intended to keep the race lead all the way to Granada. Not that it was a stated objective to do so from start to finish, but seeing as he would be joining a select group of riders who had achieved that feat, it would have been rude not to seize the historic opportunity.

Six days in, three stage wins, and an overall lead of nearly four minutes, the predictions of him reaching Granada with an advantage somewhere in double figures were looking ominously on track.

A brief hailstone-induced interlude on stage 5 reminded everyone that nature was one of the uncontrollables and yet even that didn’t dent the certitude of the World Champion riding serenely to his first overall Vuelta victory. A bad day, an untimely mechanical, or a damaging fall were all possible, but given Pogačar had avoided all of those more typical incidents since he first emerged as a star, no-one really imagined them happening.

The great Eddy Merckx may have been attributed with the saying 'La course en tête' but Tadej Pogačar and his UAE squad have refined it to such a degree that all challengers have largely been swept away when they dared to question how and when the Slovenian was going to win. Never out of position, never distracted, never in the wrong place at the wrong time. He and his teammates are the new standard upon which everyone is judged.

It is shown in the rival team selections as they have paid homage to the seemingly inevitable Pogačar triumph by sending riders and squads with objectives adjusted to the situation. Most are a mix of talents, hopefully covering each possible scenario of the day-to-day racing without triggering a reaction from UAE and their overall mission.

Those with sprinters planned to do their thing with the reassurance that UAE would be there in the background if there was a fire to put out. The WorldTour teams with breakaway specialists prayed they would be given a chance once a hierarchy was established in the points and mountains classifications. And the smaller outfits lined up for some television time and local interest.

The few experienced GC riders present already suspected when they rolled down the starting ramp covering the steps of the Casino de Monte Carlo that they were racing amongst themselves for the lower places on the overall podium. An entirely realistic ambition and one not to be mocked as in years to come they could at least say they had photographic evidence they had been alongside one of the greatest ever riders, even if it was only briefly.

Everything has now changed

With Pogačar’s crash and subsequent withdrawal, everything has changed.

For the sprint teams, there’s no relying on UAE to control anything for the two weeks ahead. The daily breakaway fights will go on for far longer. They will be harder to get in, as those same UAE riders who dragged the peloton for hours on end are now in amongst the attackers, just like they were in the Giro d’Italia when Adam Yates and Jay Vine abandoned.

The mountains prize, which Pogačar would probably have won by being first on the mountain-top finishes, is wide open and even the green jersey will be looked at again as the racing descends into a level of chaos that the peloton hasn’t been used to for a number of years.

That’s the daily expectation to which everyone has to reconfigure and compared to the teams now involved for the overall honours it’s a lot more complicated. Only Decathlon CMA CGA have what you might call a purely GC team and they have showed that when they have taken control of the peloton in the hope of giving Felix Gall the chance to distance his rivals.

However it’s not quite worked out as they hoped because the Austrian hasn’t always been up to the task. Tactically he makes mistakes, illustrated on the Aitana climb on stage 9 when he placed a number of accelerations and then didn’t follow Enric Mas when he attacked. His positioning is questionable and at times he’s been closing gaps instead of opening them. Steep climbs are no problem, but everywhere else his consistency is slightly lacking, and does the team have the depth to control the race for more than an hour at a time?

It doesn’t look like it, but then we could have said that about Movistar before they were faced with the responsibilities of the race lead. On the roads of the Costa Blanca they stepped up and Enric Mas finished off their first defence of the red jersey brilliantly but again question marks remain on how they’ll cope for the next 12 stages.

This is new territory for most of them and it comes with the added pressure of being a Spanish team leading their national Tour with a Spanish rider. The whole outfit is going to be under immense pressure; Directeur Sportifs, PR people, all the staff and of course the riders themselves. Thankfully they have Enric Mas in super form and with enough experience to read the race well.

The danger that's is slowly developing is the continued presence of Primož Roglič, who knows this race inside out. The knowledge of winning here on four previous occasions is invaluable and he will be looking at the time trial three days before the end and thinking if he continues to improve then he has more than a chance of winning the overall.

He hasn’t been wasting energy and always been well positioned which is just as well because in the final moments of the hard stages he has been without any teammates. Red Bull have been playing two games since the start: the sprints with Jordi Meeus and talking down the chances of Roglič for the overall, but now they have to adjust. Matthew Brennan looks to be the fastest if it’s not a kamikaze sprint scenario, therefore changing slightly to be more Primož-focused might be their best hope of success.

In the white jersey classification Oscar Onley is a level above the others. However, Netcompany has a similar dilemma in terms of what are they racing for. Do they commit to the sprints with Ben Turner, put hopeful riders in the breakaways, or focus on the young Scot’s bid for at least a podium place.

He’s been consistent but paid the price for trying to follow Pogačar on the crazy gravel climb heading to Castelló and never recovering. That was his worst day, though until Aitana he looked to be susceptible to the Felix Gall accelerations. That he was the only one able to stay with the race leader on the toughest day so far bodes well for what is to come.

There are indications that Enric Mas has the edge on his GC rivals at the moment but it looks very likely we are going to have a chaotic and surprise-laden Vuelta from now. The so-called sprint days where Matthew Brennan would have cleaned up aren’t guaranteed to happen, the mountains could go any way as there’s no one contender strong enough to be in the escape each time and even Wout Van Aert in green isn’t a done deal.

Lidl-Trek will have noticed Skjelmose is swinging on the back of the GC fight and it might be time to wake up Mads Pedersen. There are going to be a few more Bryan Coquard type moments in the weeks ahead.

For unbeatable coverage across road, gravel and tech, subscribe to Cyclingnews. You'll get comprehensive race coverage of La Vuelta a España, subscriber-exclusive analysis from our expert columnists, in-depth features and industry-leading tech insight. Plus, the Cyclingnews app lets you follow the action wherever you go! Join today.