It’s been a little over a month since Primož Roglič left the Tour de France on stage 16. He'd been slowly getting worse after his fall on the Wallers-Arenberg stage 11 days earlier and despite brief glimpses of recovery, he never looked like challenging his teammate Jonas Vingegaard or Tadej Pogačar for the overall victory.
Now he's at the Vuelta a España as defending champion and everything seems rosy again, but the intervening time will have been as much about re-assessing where his career goes from here as about recuperation and allowing his injuries to heal.
With the historic prospect of a fourth consecutive win looking likely, on paper at least, it would be easy to imagine that the 32-year-old would be perfectly content, but with rumours of possible transfers to another team lurking in the background, you begin to see through the smiles and wonder how much he’s been affected by another setback at the Tour.
It would be perfectly normal even for the biggest of egos to ask themselves the question, 'will I ever win it?' even if Roglič doesn’t come across as that type of person at all, despite his ambition, drive and need for success. There's the very real prospect that he won't be on an equal footing with Vingegaard come next July, and so he finds himself in the delicate situation of having to evaluate the coming years.
Does he stay with the world's number one team Jumbo-Visma and be the backup to a younger, slightly stronger rider at the biggest race of the year? Or does he go elsewhere and enjoy the luxury of being a sole leader again? It's a difficult moment for him.
Whereas before, being 32 was still considered amid the peak years of performance, the change in focus towards young talent – and a shift in race tactics that gives those same riders much more freedom – will undoubtedly influence decisions of squad recruitment, even if Jumbo's budget allows the luxury of a proven Grand Tour winner.
We haven't heard much about Roglič's preparations for this race, which, given his retirement from the Tour, is understandable. The damage would have been as much physical as mental, but then we already know of his fierce competitiveness, so for the latter I don't expect any great changes. The physical consequences don't seem to be there, either, because when he comes to a race, it's not to train or prepare for something else.
He's there to race, and the opening three days in the Netherlands has shown that he is in good shape. The question of whether he's in race-winning shape won't come until the proper mountains, though the days around Bilbao this week will give an indication of who is ready and who isn't.
When you look at the composition of the team Jumbo-Visma have brought to the Vuelta, you could question if they have the riders to support Roglič, given that each weekend has mountain-top finishes. However, when you study those stages and the ones leading up to them, it kind of makes sense that they haven't been tempted to bring more pure climbers.
The Spanish Grand Tour is different to the others in that it's always windier and the race often has the climbs right at the end of the day, so the big decisions are made on the final mountain. It's rare that there's an epic day with three massive ascents and no flat. Usually, it's much more complicated than that, and this year's route follows that template.
There are two days in the final week, Sierra Nevada on stage 15 and then the Navacerrada on stage 20, which might be dangerous for Jumbo, but by then it's less about climbing and all about who still has reserves left. Most of the other stages need big strong riders to deliver the team leaders to the last climb and then it's a battle for the GC.
The 30km flat time trial on stage 10 will see the climbers distanced by a margin that allows some leeway on how the mountaintop finishes are ridden, but even then Roglič has the ability to go across 30-second gaps in the latter kilometres that few can match.
The punchier climbs aren't a problem for him either, so he finds himself in the situation of being the out-and-out race favourite on the strongest team, faced with a route which suits his characteristics – and so if he wins, we'll all say it was expected, and if he doesn't win, there'll be those who say it's proof that he's been weakened mentally and physically by his experiences at the last few Tours de France.
So he's left with no choice but to be dominant, and given how Jumbo-Visma have been on the opening days, that's a distinct possibility. That might not sound overly exciting, but remember that the Vuelta is the least controllable of the three Grand Tours and Roglič has always faced unexpected obstacles in this race. Something always happens.
