Vincenzo Nibali has warned that Tadej Pogačar’s path to Giro d’Italia victory is unlikely to prove as straightforward as it seems. The Slovenian lines up for his Giro debut next month as the sole favourite for overall victory, but Nibali insisted that the corsa rosa is always capable of producing the unexpected.
“He’s going to have to sweat it out for overall victory, in a Grand Tour, nothing ever truly comes easy,” Nibali told La Gazzetta dello Sport.
Like most observers, Nibali expects Pogačar to get off to a fast start on his Giro debut, with the mountaintop finish at Oropa on stage 2 providing an early opportunity for him to leave his mark on the race.
The two-time champion stressed, however, that the Giro remains a marathon rather than a sprint, despite the configuration of this year’s route.
“You have to be perfect for 21 days, 20 isn’t enough,” Nibali said. “Now, I don't wish any misfortune on Tadej, of course not. But speaking in general, a single bad day, which can happen to anyone, can change a lot of things.
"For example, you can get a day of extreme cold at the Giro, and at that point, it’s just about getting yourself to the finish line. Even the great champions, in general, always have their difficulties at the Giro. They make the difference by managing the negative moments without cracking.”
None of Pogačar’s expected Tour de France rivals – Primoz Roglič, Remco Evenepoel and Jonas Vingegaard – will be on hand at the Giro. Last year’s runner-up Geraint Thomas (Ineos) and Romain Bardet (DSM-Firmenich-PostNL) are Pogacar’s most obvious rivals, while there are also a number of young talents in the race, including Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma-Lease a Bike).
None of them, however, look capable of surpassing Pogačar in a head-to-head contest, even Nibali called on the Slovenian’s rivals to be inventive.
“You have to get the notion that he’s unbeatable out of your head, even if it seems that way,” said Nibali, who added that even his most dominant Grand Tour win – the 2014 Tour de France – had not been as serene as it appeared from the outside.
“In a Grand Tour, you can never have everything under your control. To Tadej's rivals, I’d say this: I see it being very difficult in a head-to-head, so you need to be inventive. And the route and general context of the Giro can help inventiveness, more so than at the Tour.”
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