The 2023 Volta ao Algarve has been a typically hard one to predict, with the purest of climbers, the heaviest of rouleurs, and all in between considered capable of walking away with the overall title.
After the first summit finish on the Alto da Foia failed to create make much meaningful difference, the general consensus was that the double dose of the Alto do Malhão – a shorter but steeper climb – would help clear things up ahead of the final 24.4km time trial on Sunday.
To a certain extent, it did, but the race remains delicately poised and able to fall a number of ways.
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"There are still a lot of possible winners, a lot of options open," said former leader Magnus Cort, who slipped out of the overall lead down to eighth but still harbours hopes of clawing back a couple of places.
Tom Pidcock is the rider who has replaced Cort in the yellow jersey, courtesy of his victory atop Malhão, but his inexperience against the clock means it sits far from securely on his shoulders.
The two riders currently occupying the lower steps of the virtual podium – Ilan Van Wilder (Soudal-QuickStep) and João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates) – are both within striking distance and both more than capable time triallists.
Van Wilder sits second at five seconds after placing third on Malhão but, like Pidcock, has an air of mystery given, as he explained to Cyclingnews on Thursday, he hasn't ridden at time trial in anger in two years.
"But maybe it's like cycling; you never lose it," he said. "I'm not scared of anybody. I will give my all and see where it brings me on GC."
Almeida, second on the stage and third overall at seven seconds, is a proven time triallist, without a win at international level bit with a string of podiums and top-fives at major races.
"It's a bit uncertain, there are a lot of good time triallists here," said the home favourite. "I'm just going to give everything I have and then I'm going to be happy for sure."
Behind the podium lie a pair of Bora-Hansgrohe climbers, Sergio Higuita and Jai Hindley, who will surely only drop away, while Rui Costa (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty) sits sixth at 22 seconds, in the best form he's had for years and with a history of decent TT efforts when there's a GC interest.
In seventh place is one of three remaining options for Ineos Grenadiers after Thymen Arensman suffered another untimely puncture and faded from view on Malhao. Dani Martínez followed the moves behind Pidcock on the climb and placed sixth on the day to move up 12 places to seventh at 23 seconds. The Colombian is a former national time trial title with strong pedigree, even if his current form would suggest overall victory is a long shot.
Ganna and Foss
After Cort in eighth place comes Ineos' third and most interesting card: Filippo Ganna.
The Italian was coy about his overall ambitions here but surpassed expectations with his defence on Malhão. Helped by a calm first ascent but arguably not by Pidcock's repeat accelerations on the second, Ganna clung on and remarkably placed 10th on the stage.
Having only lost a handful on Foia before taking them back in Friday's surprise finale, he sits ninth overall at just 31 seconds. The question is how much time he can take over 24.4km.
It's not hard to see him taking 31 seconds back from Pidcock, and likewise, the respective 26 and 24 seconds to Van Wilder and Almeida appear surmountable for a rider who, on his day, can blow the competition away.
And yet, Ganna's air of invincibility wore off in 2022, with a number of sub-par displays, notably at the World Championship. That's where Tobias Foss (Jumbo-Visma) stormed in with a shock victory, and the Norwegian is very much part of the overall equation in the Algarve, in 10th at 32 seconds.
He suffered on Malhão but the explosive nature of the final climb – after a relatively gentle first ascent - wasn't best suited to his style, and he remains confident of rising up the GC.
Given his world title, and the way he backed it up at the Chrono Des Nations with a close second place behind Stefan Küng, he has to be considered, like Ganna, a true threat for the overall. Küng, however, lost too much on Malhão to entertain any hope of the overall.
Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo), 11th at 32 seconds, is the final rider who could realistically trouble the top of the GC, having become something of a TT specialist in the twilight of his career, but it'll be interesting to see how Oscar Onley (Team DSM) fares in 12th after another impressive ride on Malhão.
In short, it's all up for grabs and it's still too hard to call.
"One thing's for sure, it'll be close," Van Wilder said. "But that's fun cycling."
