Tadej Pogačar's rare moment of adversity on the Col du Granon last Wednesday immediately launched all manner of putative explanations. Illness was quickly ruled out and a hunger flat seemed too straightforward. His problem was the heat, some reckoned. It was the altitude, insisted others. Still more blamed his depleted team.
After Pogačar's attacks on Alpe d'Huez the following day and again on the road to Mende on Saturday, however, a more worrying rationale is beginning to take shape for the Slovenian. More than anything on this Tour de France, Pogačar has a Jonas Vingegaard problem.
The latest instalment of their duel took place on the slopes of the Côte de la Croix Neuve above Mende in the finale of stage 14, where Michael Matthews emerged victorious from the early break. Pogačar's UAE Team Emirates companions Brandon McNulty and Rafal Majka shredded the yellow jersey group at the foot of that climb with a fiery stint of pace-making and, for once, Vingegaard was bereft of Jumbo-Visma teammates.
When Pogačar himself accelerated with a little under 2km of the climb remaining, however, Vingegaard was the only man to follow. The rest of the podium contenders were scattered along the hillside below them, pedalling as though they were sinking into the tarmac melting beneath their wheels.
Pogačar and Vingegaard, by contrast, were all but floating above it, and therein lies the problem for the defending champion. Since winning his first Tour two years ago, Pogačar has routinely travelled to places nobody else could reach. But every time he enters that beatific state on this Tour, he turns around and realises he has company.
Graceful of pedal stroke and calm of expression, Vingegaard scarcely betrayed any sign of fatigue as he shadowed Pogačar's every acceleration on a sun-blasted afternoon in the Massif Central. The pair arrived together at the finish with a lead of almost 20 seconds over their nearest pursuers. In the overall standings, Vingegaard remains 2:22 clear of Pogačar.
"I mean, he did some good attacks. I also expected him to try today, but I could follow and I'm happy I could follow," said Vingegaard, who suggested the facility of his pedalling masked the intensity of his effort.
"I don't think it was easy. I would say 200 watts is easy, but what we did was not easy. But I tried to follow him every time he attacked and I'm happy I could follow him."
The calm that serves Vingegaard so well out on the road remains intact when he sits down in the press conference each day after the podium ceremony. When Pogačar sowed low-level panic through the peloton by joining in the early attacking outside Saint-Étienne, Vingegaard bridged serenely across, and he downplayed the importance of the moment after the stage.
"As I said before, I expected him to take every opportunity he has," Vingegaard said. "I wouldn't say I was surprised, but I was a bit too far behind in the bunch to jump with him, so in the end, I had to close a small gap by myself. But I managed to do it and it didn't cost me too much energy."
Pyrenees
The rolling haul to Mende was the last obvious opportunity for Pogačar to put pressure on Vingegaard before the final rest day, even if an ambush could not be ruled out on the road to Carcassonne on Sunday. One way or another, Pogačar needs to find a solution to an increasingly maddening conundrum.
Vingegaard, on the other hand, has the luxury of a substantial buffer over his closest rival. But while a Pogačar onslaught seems inevitable in the Pyrenees next week, the summit finishes at Hautacam and Peyragudes might also tempt Vingegaard onto the attack with an eye to carving out a more comfortable margin ahead of the 40km time trial to Rocamadour on stage 20.
"Depends on the legs, I would say," Vingegaard said. "If I feel good, never say never. As it is now, it seems like a big gap, but it's also a long time trial at the end, so a lot of things can happen. Of course, if the opportunity is there, I can also try to attack him."
Since Vingegaard claimed victory at Jebel Jais on last year's UAE Tour, he has repeatedly been in Pogačar's vicinity when the road climbs, in the Basque Country, at Tirreno-Adriatico and, of course, here on the Tour, though he confessed on Saturday evening that they were not close off the bike.
"He's a great guy and a great bike rider. I have a lot of respect for Tadej," Vingegaard said. "I race against him, but we live in two different places. I don't have his phone number, so I guess you can figure out how much we talk."
Still, at Mende as at Alpe d'Huez, Vingegaard responded to Pogačar's every thought. In the second week of this Tour, at least, he has had his number.
