High stakes all around: Why the 2024 Itzulia Basque Country matters to Vingegaard, Roglic and Evenepoel

Three years ago in the Itzulia Basque Country and with less than two hours left to race on the final stage, all eyes were on Primož Roglič when the Slovenian launched a blistering and successful long-distance attack that finally netted him a second overall victory.

One of the most enthralling days in recent Itzulia-Basque race history, Roglič’s spectacular defeat of Tadej Pogačar, Brandon McNulty and a previously-dominant UAE Team Emirates had all the feel of a sporting revenge for a rather bigger last-minute loss, that of the Tour de France in 2020, to his fellow Slovenian. But when the dust settled on Itzulia 2021, with the benefit of hindsight, there was another highly significant thread to that race's narrative for Jumbo-Visma.

Standing next to Roglič on the winner’s podium of Mount Arrate on that rain-soaked afternoon in April in second place overall was teammate Jonas Vingegaard, in the Dane’s first-ever top three GC finish in a WorldTour race. After that Basque breakthrough, the rest has very much been sporting history.

So even if Mount Arrate, long considered the Itzulia’s most emblematic summit finish, is regrettably missing from this year’s route, the six-day stage race that kicks on Monday could hardly be a more appropriate setting for another major chapter opening in Vingegaard and Roglič’s shared race history.

For the first time since 2018, when the curtain goes up on the Itzulia in Irun’s time trial on Monday, Roglič (Bora-Hansgrohe) and Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) will be riding together as rivals, not teammates. 

If that were not an interesting enough scenario in itself, the additional presence of Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) will make Itzulia Basque Country the first time that three of the ‘Big Four’ contenders for the Tour de France cross paths in 2024. 

What makes this three-way duel even more appealing is the highly significant symbolic value an overall victory for any one of the trio in this year's Itzulia Basque Country will have. In Vingegaard’s case, having crushed the opposition with three stage wins en route to overall Itzula victory in 2023, the presence of Roglič and Evenepoel, two of his key rivals in the Tour de France this summer, will surely do no harm to his motivation to turn in a repeat performance this April.

There's also a chance to continue a run of wins that currently began at O Gran Camiño and had his devastating ride in Tirreno-Adriatico as its last component, making Vingegaard not just undefeated in 2024 so far but also way ahead of any opposition. Last but not least, after Pogačar’s blistering demonstration of climbing prowess in the recently completed Volta a Catalunya, a storming ride in the hills of the Basque Country would confirm that if the Slovenian has evidently got major momentum going right now for the summer, Vingegaard is not lacking in it, either.

As for Roglič, Itzulia's opportunity to demonstrate his stage racing form is back on track after a comparatively rare below-expectations ride in Paris-Nice last month is already likely to act as fuel for his determination to put on a show. If it can come against Vingegaard in their first-ever showdown, then so much the better.

To call the Itzulia Basque Country one of Roglič’s favoured hunting grounds is no exaggeration, either. With five stage wins and two overall victories in his palmares stretching back to 2017, Roglič is unbeaten in his time trialling participations there. Furthermore, stage 1’s short, punchy race against the clock in Irun on Monday is just a few kilometres away from the remarkably similar course in Hondarribia, both in distance and terrain-wise, where he won his last Itzulia stage back in 2022. 

Enter Remco, stage right

The rider who finished second behind Roglič on that stage in 2022 was Evenepoel. While Roglič fell ill and Vingegaard fell out of the running after a crash involving Alexandr Vlasov (Bora-Hansgrohe), Evenepoel's fortunes rose higher as he claimed the overall lead on stage 5 - only to fall foul of an attack by final winner Dani Martínez (Ineos Grenadiers) on the last day.

Somewhat cagy pre-race about his chances two years on, Evenepoel will be backed by an in-form Mikel Landa (Soudal-QuickStep), second in Itzulia Basque Country last year.  But if Itzulia also constitutes another round of Evenepoel's 2024 battles against Roglič, with whom he already crossed swords - successfully - in Paris-Nice, the presence of Vingegaard raises the stakes enormously.

Yet another reason for Itzulia Basque Country to be so charged with interest is the extreme rarity of this three-way clash. Such is the scantness of Vingegaard’s race programme this spring in particular, skipping all the Ardennes Classics, that the next time these three will meet on a start line will be in the Critérium du Dauphiné. As for Pogačar, barring a much-anticipated battle with Evenepoel and Roglič at Liège-Bastogne-Liège prior to the Giro d'Italia, for stage racing it's only at the Tour itself, that the four will all coincide.

Whatever kind of form each of them brings to Itzulia Basque Country, though, it'll be a while this week before the cards are truly turned upwards on the table. The structure of the race this year has seemingly been designed to ensure that the likelihood of any of these three or their rivals getting a race-winning advantage before next Saturday’s showdown stage is minimal. 

The 10km opening ITT is way too short to establish significant time gaps and the subsequent four stages either are tailor-made for breakaways and/or have their most important climbs too far from the finish to matter.

That said, the terrain in Itzulia Basque Country always lends itself to abrupt and unexpected changes of script and this year will be no exception. Opportunities abound for ambushes on the narrow, twisting climbs of the rural hinterlands, like the one that saw McNulty move into the lead in 2021, as well as the Basque Country’s often treacherous weather conditions.

Furthermore, if echelons have rarely played a role in Itzula's densely wooded landscapes, the battle for bonus seconds in an event often decided by a bare minimum could be an intriguing one: Roglič and Evenepoel are both experts at that particular game.

The return of the Krabelin

That all changes on stage 6. Identical to last year’s final day of racing, with seven ascents over 3,500 metres of vertical climbing crammed into the agonisingly short distance of 138 kilometres, the crunch moment could well come when the riders tackle the gruelling Krabelin climb. 

Featuring its average gradients of 9.6% over five kilometres, in 2023 the Krabelin was where Vingegaard blasted off for one last victory in a race he had already all but won. This time, though the Krabelin could well be the climb around which the entire GC battle is set to pivot. 

Beyond the three standout figures set to roll down the start ramp at Irun on Monday afternoon, Sepp Kuss' (Visma-Lease a Bike) participation in Itzulia Basque Country means the winners of all three of the 2023 Grand Tours will be present in Euskadi this week. Kuss could well provide a useful foil to Vingegaard, although it may well only be on Saturday’s most mountainous stage that his talents can be best exploited. 

Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe) may well have a similar role to Kuss when it comes to supporting Roglič, while Basque veterans and Tour de France stage winners Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious) and former Itzulia champion Ion Izagirre (Cofidis) have a long and distinguished race history in their home race.

Amongst the teams keen to gatecrash the Vingegaard-Roglič-Evenepoel party will be Ineos Grenadiers, fielding both Tom Pidcock, for whom Itzulia’s technical roads and scary descents will not prove a deterrent, and up-and-coming Spanish star Carlos Rodríguez. 

Nor can UAE Team Emirates, whose headline acts are Juan Ayuso - already able to give Jonas Vingegaard a run for his money in Tirreno’s opening ITT and likely to want to do so again in Irún on Monday, and the 2021 leader for two days, McNulty.

On paper, the main attraction, though, looks set to be how Vingegaard fares against two of his key Tour de France rivals in an event which, just like the 2023 Tour and every race he’s done so far this year, he managed to make his own. As a foretaste of the summer, then, Itzulia Basque Country really can’t be missed.