Tour de France stage 10 preview: UAE set to use scene of Tadej Pogačar's 2024 defeat at Le Lioran as 'source of extra motivation'

It's hard to believe now, but two years ago, after the 2024 Tour de France stage to Le Lioran – where this year's race heads on Tuesday – Tadej Pogačar looked like anything but the favourite to win overall.

True, Pogačar had dominated the first nine days of the 2024 Tour, moving clear of the field on the Galibier stage, and then only ceding 12 seconds to Remco Evenepoel in the time trial that followed.

However, that very promising start bore ominous similarities to Pogačar's rampaging opening in 2022, as well as the far more equal battle in the first half of the 2023 race – both of which were won by Jonas Vingegaard.

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At the end of that first week in 2024, even as experienced a Tour veteran as former overall winner Geraint Thomas had told Cyclingnews that, if he were a betting man (which he wasn't), his money would be on Vingegaard to be in yellow in Paris.

And then Le Lioran happened, with Pogačar attacking on a late climb in yellow, only to ease up – reportedly due to a hunger knock – before Vingegaard made the catch and beat him in a sprint at the line.

In terms of momentum, after a very strong start, the setback very much felt like a turning point in the race and one we'd seen before in 2022 and 2023. But in fact, as we all know, 2024 would end up being Pogacar's third triumph.

And barring their largely symbolic tussle for placings at La Plagne last year, where Vingegaard outsprinted Pogačar for second despite being over four minutes down, that setback for Pogačar at Le Lioran remains the last occasion when the Dane truly got the better of the Slovenian in a Grand Tour mountain stage.

'We use the stages where Tadej didn't win as a source of extra motivation'

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Fast forward two years, and it's hard to know which of the previous two Pogačar 'defeats' by Vingegaard in 2024 and 2025, at Le Lioran and La Plagne, is the real reference point for stage 10.

Le Lioran's gently rising finale, deep in the heart of the southern Massif Central at the end of a day of non-stop climbing and descending, might be the same place geographically as that sprint duel two years ago. The undulating terrain beforehand is similar, too.

But you could say, too, that rather than look at previous results, Pogačar's two-second time loss in La Plagne, where the battle for the overall was all but done and dusted – as this year's race already feels – is perhaps the closer realistic scenario for this week.

For the sake of argument, imagine Vingegaard once again outsprints Pogačar on Tuesday – would it really so much as dent the Slovenian's options for yellow, long-term?

In any case, his UAE Team Emirates-XRG management insist that, while Pogačar's strategy won't emerge until the 166.9km stage is underway, his present attitude to past defeats is already more than clear. Equally so is how his team view that 2024 defeat and any increasingly rare setbacks he's experienced since.

"Regarding Le Lioran, if Tadej had had some hard moments that day, but those hard moments culminated in him finishing second in a photo finish sprint like in 2024, then I'd sign for them all over again," head of racing Joxean Fernández Matxin tells Cyclingnews.

"Rather than being worried, we use the stages where Tadej didn't win as a source of extra motivation. And that's the great thing Tadej has, he uses those memories: [he thinks] I didn't enjoy this before, now I have to try.

"So we can get good things from these moments, and if you think that a photo finish sprint constitutes a moment of weakness, then they're more than welcome."

On his last visit to Le Lioran and that narrow loss to Vingegaard, Pogačar brushed aside any idea he'd be out for revenge on the next day. It was, as he said, a "good day", and he was right; he raced on with a 1:14 lead over his rival, while the pair gained 25 seconds on their closest rivals, Remco Evenepoel and Primož Roglič, and even more on the rest.

With Tuesday's stage concluding with first-category climbs of Puy Mary and Col de Pertus before the third-category Col de Font de Cere, on paper the route bears considerable similarity to both the 2024 and 2016 finale, the latter won from the breakaway by Greg Van Avermaet.

There are some key differences, though, with the Puy Mary - Pas de Peyrol tackled via a gentler road to the summit, and at 166.5km, the whole stage is nearly 45km shorter than the 2024 stage.

The position of this year's visit in the Tour route, straight after the rest day, could make for a more unpredictable race, while the scheduling – it's Bastille Day, of course – could also have an effect.

"A lot of French riders will be wanting to win because of the day," Pogačar pointed out.

The treacherously variable terrain of the Massif Central

However, the two radically different outcomes in 2016 and 2024 are perhaps the most important factors to bear in mind ahead of this year's visit.

Van Avermaet's triumph came from a breakaway over two minutes clear of anyone else, while the Vingegaard-Pogačar showdown was the conclusion of the day's GC fireworks. On such treacherously variable terrain as the Massif Central, both are possible again.

For UAE, although there's an option of adopting more conservative tactics, given Pogačar's 2:42 advantage on GC. Matxin argues, "we never race defensively, even if the situation is favourable for us.

"Plus, although there are riders at five or eight minutes overall, the ones who are at five minutes are only two minutes down on the guy who came second: so then there's the ongoing fight for the podium for second or third, which is much more open.

"And there are still lots of candidates for the podium, too, which gives the whole GC battle a much richer texture."

Furthermore, Matxin says, the wide variety of interests at this point in the Tour – when the time differences on GC are notable but not unbridgeable – combine to make stages like Le Lioran all the more complicated, both to predict and to handle in terms of terrain and strategy.

The organisation's decision to place the one intermediate sprint of the day on stage 10 before its seven mostly punchy classified climbs, too, makes getting in the breakaway all the trickier, "because then the sprinters can get interested in what's on offer for them as well," says Matxin.

For those trying to go for the win from distance, "80% of the day's victory is in the first part of the stage and getting into the break, then 20% is what happens afterwards. The first hour of these stages is possibly some of the most beautiful you can watch on TV – more, sometimes than what happens at the finish."

An added complication on the stage is that all of the categorised climbing lies in the final two-thirds. None of the hills is excessively difficult, but they'll all sap riders' strength. The blistering heat is set to lessen as the race goes on, but not just yet – riders will still contend with maximum temperatures of 36°C on the open country roads.

'We don't have one or two to watch, we've got lots of them to watch'

Asked if Pogačar's rivals had given up the fight for overall victory, Matxin replied with a grin, "If only that were true."

In particular, the structure of the stage, with two difficult first-category climbs preceding an easy third-category final, and then a rolling run to the finish, could make for big gaps in any GC battle, he argues.

To back up his case, he points to the recent battle in the Pyrenees, where Pogačar took a hefty slice of his time gap on the more straightforward climb following the Tourmalet.

"It's obvious that the organisers put an easy climb at the end of a stage so that the GC wouldn't be so broken apart, but what they achieved was actually the opposite," he said.

"On the Tourmalet, if they'd finished the stage at the top, there'd have been 30 seconds between the first and the second. But then by putting in an ascent with 3 or 4% gradient straight after, that's where the time gaps really got established. Either if you're ahead, you then win a lot more or if you're behind, you lose a lot more."

Some riders, like Pogačar, were able to exploit the differing climbs to the full. However, others, like Evenepoel, who'd in theory have been more comfortable on the ascent to the finish, were already dropped by then.

Rather than Evenepoel being the main challenger, the Tourmalet favoured Vingegaard, but he was much less at ease on the 'easier' second-category climb to the line.

Pogačar, of course, was strong on both, and so that gave him a devastating advantage by the time he crossed the finish line at the summit of Gavarnie-Gèdre. But Matxin denies that his team and rider hold the race in an iron grip as they did, say, at the 2024 Giro d'Italia.

"With all due respect to the Giro of that year, these are very different kinds of opponents we've got here. Not better or worse, but different," he said.

"And there are some important rivals, the sort that any of them gets a 10-metre gap, we have to shut it down. We don't have one or two to watch, we've got lots of them to watch.

"So I recognise that Tadej has taken a very important step [towards victory], but it's not at all definitive. We've still got a very long way to go."

Stage information

• Stage 10: Aurillac - Le Lioran
• Date: July 14, 2026
• Distance: 166.6km
• Start time: 13:10 CET
• Finish time: 17:24 CET

Mountains

• Côte de Pailherols (cat. 3, 3km at 7.2%), km. 68
  • 2-1 pts
• Col de la Griffoul (cat. 2, 5.9km at 6.7%), km. 97.3
  • 5-3-2-1 pts
• Col de Prat de Bouc (cat. 3, 3.1km at 6.5%), km. 103.8
  • 2-1 pts
• Côte de Murat (cat. 3. 5.2km at 5.3%), km. 118.8
  • 5-3-2-1 pts
• Puy Mary-Pas de Peyrol (cat. 1, 7.8km at 6%), km.135.7
  • 10-8-6-4-2-1 pts
• Col de Pertus (cat. 1, 4.4km at8.5%), km. 152.1
  • 10-8-6-4-2-1 pts
• Col de Font de Cère (cat. 3, 3.1km at 5.8%), km. 163.9
  • 2-1 pts

Sprints

• Lacapelle-del-Fraisse, km. 25.5
  • 25-20-16-14-12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 pts

Time limit