The Vuelta a España is closer to Madrid than at any other point in the 2023 race, but the challenge for the overall is not over yet. The final hurdle of a medium mountain stage through the sierras west of the city's capital could yet prove a really tough one, say Jumbo-Visma's rivals.
Sepp Kuss currently heads a triumvirate of Jumbo-Visma general classification contenders atop the overall ranking of the Vuelta a España and the team is just two stages away from becoming the first squad in cycling history to take all three Grand Tours in the same year.
Even if sports directors from rival teams recognise that the Vuelta tide is flowing very strongly in Jumbo-Visma's favour, they will attempt to give the Dutch team and the other contender a run for their money one last time.
The constantly undulating terrain through the Madrid sierras of stage 20 on no fewer than ten little-known category 3 climbs is certainly the kind that could catch out the unwary or overconfident.
Totalling 202 kilometres from start to finish, it's not just the longest stage in the Vuelta, possible bad weather and an elevation gain of 4,200 metres, the highest of the entire race in a single day, could represent a real sting in the tail for the 2023 race.
"Saturday is a stage where there's very little room for recovery," says UAE Team Emirates sports director Joxean Fernandez Matxin, whose rider Juan Ayuso is running fourth at 4:00, the best placed of all the Jumbo-Visma rivals.
"As a result of that, a lot of things can happen and we'll hope to do battle as best we can, even if we're also aware that the team Jumbo have is a very strong one."
"We'll have to find a weak chink in their armour, even if up to now there hasn't been a single one, just strong points all around and they've dominated on the climbs.
"So tactically we've got to try something and look for an option."
Destabilizing Jumbo-Visma's tactics from early on will be fundamental, Matxin told Cyclingnews, "because otherwise if they control the race throughout, it'll be much harder to do anything.
"So the attacks have to take place on the descents and ascents from the word go, and they have to be continuous by all the rival teams, trying to eliminate Jumbo's support riders from the running so we can isolate the leaders."
Ayuso could have valuable allies in teammates João Almeida, ninth on GC, and the ever-aggressive Marc Soler, active in the breaks in the mountains in Asturias.
"Ayuso's more explosive, Soler too, and Almeida is more of a diesel, so we'll have to use those qualities to our advantage. We'll take risks, that's for sure - we've got nothing to lose.
"And if it rains" - as it forecast - "that'll make it much more nervous, more complicated, more technical. We know these roads a bit from the Spanish Nationals this year, and the last climb is a tough one, even if it is just category 3. We're in the third week of a Grand Tour, and any effort carries a high price, too.
"It'll be a very demanding stage," agrees Bahrain Victorious sports director Neil Stephens, the team who have tried the hardest to destabilize Jumbo-Visma in the last week, with Mikel Landa, fifth at 4:19, at the forefront of their efforts.
"It's very different to the mountains of Asturias, a lot of smaller times, constantly up and down. You could even see the fatigue today [stage 19] on a flat stage, so tiredness is going to play a very important part.
"The climbs are not too steep, except for the last one, but everybody's going to be trying to spend their last grams of energy to see where it gets them."
As for whether the stage could be one for a last roll of the dice, Stephens compares it to a similar Madrid sierras stage in the 2015 Vuelta's last week won by former rider Ruben Plaza - and where Fabio Aru dramatically toppled Tom Dumoulin from the overall lead.
"It's going to be another Remco [Evenepoel] day out, and a great day to go for it," Stephens says.
"There are only two stages up for grabs now, one's a sprint stage on Sunday, and the other one on Saturday will either be GC or breakaways. But all the breakaway guys will give it their last grams of energy, that's for sure."
Ineos Grenadiers no longer have a GC rider in the running in this year's Vuelta, but are well aware of how important the final semi-mountainous stage could be in that respect all the same.
"I think so, with that amount of altitude," sports director Steve Cummings tells Cyclingnews, "it'll be interesting at the least. A lot will depend on the start and how that plays out, although there's a lot of dead bodies floating around at this point in the game.
"Jumbo-Visma are really strong, so it's hard to imagine something will go wrong for them. But there could be ambushes - you never know."
