Vincenzo Nibali has advised Remco Evenepoel to target the 2023 Giro d'Italia as develops his Grand Tour career but warned the young Belgian he faces a tough battle in the mountains if he wants to add a maglia rosa to his Vuelta a Espana winner's red jersey.
The 2023 Giro d'Italia includes a total of 70.6km of time trials but also more than 51,000 metres of climbing and high peaks in the Alps and Dolomites before a final mountain time trial to the Monte Lussari sanctuary near the border with Slovenian.
Evenepoel could arguably gain two minutes on some of his rivals in the time trials but will also have to ride well in the mountains and perhaps the cold and snow of late May. The toughest stage of the Giro ends atop the Tre Cime di Lavaredo in the Dolomites after 5400 metres of climbing. Nibali sealed his first of two Giro d'Italia there in a snowstorm in 2013 and knows more than most what Evenepoel needs to do to win the maglia rosa.
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Evenepoel is still to decide if he will ride the Giro d'Italia or go directly to the Tour de France and take on Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard but he may have been tempted by the Giro d'Italia 2023 route if he took a look during his honeymoon.
"I'd target the Giro in 2023 if I was Remco Evenepoel. He won the Vuelta and so a gradual development is the best way to go in Grand Tours. It can be another important step in his development as a rider," Nibali suggested to Cyclingnews and other media in Milan for the route presentation.
"It's a great-looking Giro. It's well-balanced. The climbs start early in the south and then keep coming. The final time trial will be interesting and scary for the riders because they will almost certainly switch from time trial bikes to road bikes for the concrete road up to the finish."
Nibali was one of the last to leave the Milan theatre that hosted the presentation of the 2023 Giro d'Italia, almost as if he was hanging on to the final moments of his career as a rider and holding back the idea that he will not be at the start of the Giro d'Italia in 2023. He was the last Italian to win the Giro in 2016, with the home nation hoping a young rider can quickly step up and show similar potential.
"The Giro has always been special for me, from discovering my first Giro as a young rider, to being a leader, winning twice and then finishing fourth this year, my last season as a professional," Nibali said.
"I rode my last race last week and so I'm still looking at the route with the eyes of a rider. It feels like I've ended the season and I'm enjoying things. When the training camps start in December is perhaps the moment when I fully realise I've retired."
Nibali will turn 38 in November but finished fourth in the Giro d'Italia this year after a strong final week. He warned Evenepoel about the strength and endurance of veteran riders like Geraint Thomas and Primož Roglič.
"Thomas could do something and even finish on the podium," Nibali predicted. "While the final mountain time trial suits Roglič and is near Slovenia. He could ride defensively before then and gain time on everyone."
The right race strategy
Nibali won atop Tre Cime di Lavaredo in 2013 after winning a mountain time trial at the Polsa ski resort in the Trentino region. A decade on, he knows the importance of pacing a tilt at overall victory. Evenepoel would perhaps be wise to follow his advice.
"You've got to be good in the first week but from the time trial in Romagna to the end are 11 hard days of racing. We're used to seeing riders gain time early in a Grand Tour but that could be risky at the 2023 Giro," Nibali warned.
"The time trial will create some important time gaps but then the stage to Crans Montana is important and will make the GC much clearer. It's a chance for someone who is on form to gain even more time.
"The final week is hard but the hierarchy amongst the GC riders will have emerged by then. Of course, it's the Giro and so there could always be a surprise like this year when Jai Hindley dropped Richard Carapaz on the last mountain stage and won the Giro. The final three stages were where someone can turn the Giro upside down but it's a big ask. I'm sure someone will try though."
