Why Wout van Aert missing the Tour de France is a huge loss for Jonas Vingegaard, and the race itself

Here's a hot take: Wout van Aert is the most valuable Tour de France rider of the last five years. 'Not Tadej Pogačar? Not Jonas Vingegaard?' I hear you already typing in the comments, and in many ways you're right, of course, but in terms of a rider who can do it all at this race, both for himself and for his team, no one comes close to Van Aert.

That's why this morning's news, that Van Aert has been ruled out of what would have been his eighth Tour de France, was so big. The Tour has lost a 10-time stage winner, Jonas Vingegaard has lost his most trusted bodyguard, and Visma-Lease a Bike have lost their biggest fan favourite.

The most immediate question is how this will affect Vingegaard. In truth, the loss of Van Aert as part of his Tour team cannot be understated. The Belgian may not have been at his very best last Tour – apart from winning the final stage – but every time Vingegaard has won the Tour before, it's been with Van Aert by his side, and after some very big efforts from him.

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In some ways, Van Aert's pivotal role in both of Vingegaard's previous wins makes it hard to imagine how the Dane can even achieve that without his Belgian talisman.

Despite what a few well-edited sequences of Netflix's Unchained may lead you to believe, Van Aert and Vingegaard actually have a really good partnership, at least to my eyes. If the way they work together isn't enough, then seeing them embrace atop a mountain, with Van Aert telling Vingegaard how proud he is of him, gives nothing to suggest rivalry or discontent.

Van Aert's natural role, as a Classics rider, is to be Vingegaard's bodyguard on the flatter terrain, and look after him during fast and hectic stages, a job he does with ease, but more than that, Van Aert has shown his huge value on stages that shouldn't suit his rider type.

When he's at his best, Van Aert is somehow also one of the best climbing domestiques in the peloton, burying himself to support Vingegaard on even the hardest of stages, and indeed winning every type of stage – from TT to mountain to sprint – himself over the years.

Now, whether Van Aert could have been at his very best this July, even before an elbow infection ruled him out of the race entirely, is a different question. It is true that we haven't quite seen Van Aert go turbo mode in the Tour as he did in 2022 and 2023 in recent years, and maybe his years of being the very best all-rounder in the bunch are behind him.

But that doesn't mean he isn't an incredibly valuable part of Visma-Lease a Bike's line-up, and one that will be sorely missed. For one, he is a valued and close teammate of Jonas Vingegaard, and an ally he would have wanted to have as he tries to achieve the seemingly impossible right now and beat Tadej Pogačar in the Tour. Let's not forget that the only person to beat Pogačar head-to-head so far this year was Wout van Aert.

Secondly, Van Aert is a central figure and key cog in the Visma team. Not only does he have an important team role, which became even more important this year when Christophe Laporte was also ruled out, but as a potential winner himself, he also has the ability to bring in other success for the team, and take the pressure off of Vingegaard in some ways. Van Aert could have been the face of the team, at least for the start of the race, absorbing the questions and attention in place of his leader. That won't happen now.

Without Van Aert, and Laporte, Vingegaard's support squad for the flat, chaotic stages – the ones that can prove costly for a lightweight climber like him – is severely diminished, and whoever Visma bring in to replace them will not be able to match their experience or strength. The physical weakening in Visma's line-up does not need much explaining.

But more than that, there's a mental element, and a growing feeling of misfortune at Visma this year. Wout van Aert won Paris-Roubaix and Vingegaard won the Giro, but all their successes seem to come in spite of setbacks. Van Aert's broken ankle, Vingegaard's crash, the loss of Wilco Kelderman at the Giro, and most recently, the shock exit of Grischa Niermann – who will also be missing from the Tour as Marc Reef takes the driving seat.

And of course, this is all whilst Pogačar seems to sail through life unbothered and thriving at all times. UAE have had their own injury struggles, yes, but the Slovenian himself is coming to the Tour looking as strong as ever, and with an equally powerful support squad.

So far, Visma have bounced back from all of these knocks and misfortunes to pretty successful results – at least in their biggest goals – but how long can that last? Will Wout van Aert's Tour absence be the blow that actually sticks? Vingegaard and everyone at Visma will be hoping not, but his importance as a rider and figurehead cannot be understated. It's already been difficult to imagine Vingegaard overcoming Pogačar at the Tour de France this year – and that just became even harder without Van Aert.

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