Mads Pedersen was only 11th in the high-speed, aggressive Tour de France stage 11 sprint into Nevers but the results of the stage played out in the Lidl-Trek rider's favour. It was enough to cement his control on the green points jersey with only one flat stage left to race. The green jersey is now his to lose.
Pedersen leads the points classification with 317 points over Biniam Girmay (NSN), who has 272 points. With third place in Nevers, Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech) moved up to third with 255 points, while double stage winner Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quickstep) dropped to fifth with 223. Max Kanter (XDS-Astana), who has been fighting with Pedersen in the intermediate sprints, is fifth with 203, while Olav Kooij (Decathlon CMA CGM) is a distant sixth with 160 points.
Pedersen's lead in the points classification over Girmay fell from 54 to 45 points but his rival's failure turned the sprint stage into a success for Pedersen.
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"I can be lucky that Philipsen, Girmay or Kanter didn't win the stage. It's sad to say, but that's the game when we are fighting for this point jersey," Pedersen admitted to Eurosport, after pulling on another green jersey. It is his seventh since he won stage 4 to Foix and pulled on the distinctive colours.
Philipsen, Girmay and Merlier were frustrated for different reasons as Søren Wærenskjold (Uno-X Mobility) kicked early to win the fastest road stage in Tour de France history. The Norwegian stopped them all from scoring a maximum of 70 points, offering a Leonardo Messi-style assist to Pedersen.
Merlier was only 15th in the sprint as positioning, elbows, and a fearless mentality proved vital at high speed. Girmay was sixth, while Philipsen was third after being relegated but then reinstated after a protest from his team.
"The sprint was not good enough but for the rest, it was fine. I still have it today and hopefully I will still wear it after tomorrow," Pedersen said.
Like a poker player trying to count the cards and understand his rivals' hands, Pedersen is counting every point he scores, every point his rivals score and considering every sprint opportunity between Nevers and Paris. There are still 10 stages to race and the Alps to climb, but the points competition seems like a downhill run for Pedersen from now on.
Stage 12 to Chalon-sur-Saone should again be a sprint stage, with a maximum of 70 points up for grabs. While Pedersen hasn't been able to match the speed of his rivals, he can again try to score points and limit his losses.
After the stage to Chalon-sur-Saone, the green jersey battle should turn in Pedersen's favour, with breakaways and the GC battle expected to dominate the remaining stages.
While the pure sprinters will be focused on surviving the stages, Pedersen can concentrate on scoring points in any early intermediate sprints, or even go in the breakaway on stage 17 to Voiron. Pedersen and Lidl-Trek can also send riders on the attack to hurt their sprint rivals' chances to score points in other stages.
Pedersen even has a final chance to score points on stage 21 to Paris, with the intermediate sprint coming on the Champs Élysées, before the three climbs of the Côte de la Butte Montmartre.
"After stage 12, we are done with all the proper sprint days, all the big points are gone, and I'm still in the contest for green," Pedersen pointed out.
"Our approach won't change but after stage 12 we start to be here and there and everywhere with the team. That's the plan from now to Paris."
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